Friday, March 8, 2024 26 games
Today: winner picks 18 of 23 right · line picks 1 of 3 right · total picks 10 of 16 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.
| Time / Status | Away | Home | Pick | Line | Prediction | Line pick | Result | O/U | Total pick | Model total | Prev. meetings | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final |  Radford
|
63 | @  High Point
|
77 | HPU Solid 83% ✓ | HPU -10.5 | HPU won by 14 · covered | 152.5 | 45 met · HPU 23 · RAD 22 | ||||
| Final |  Missouri St
|
59 | vs  Indiana St
|
75 | INST Solid 85% ✓ | INST -11.5 | INST won by 16 · covered | 150.5 | UNDER 150.5 · 51.8% (134) ✓ | 46 met · INST 15 · MOST 31 | |||
| Final |  William & Mary
|
79 | vs  NC A&T
|
62 | W&M Solid 72% ✓ | W&M -6.5 | W&M won by 17 · covered | 139.5 | UNDER 139.5 · 51.8% (141) ✗ | 2 met · NCAT 2 · W&M 0 | |||
| Final |  Longwood
|
69 | vs  Winthrop
|
56 | LONG -1.5 | LONG won by 13 · covered | 144.5 | UNDER 144.5 · 51.8% (125) ✓ | 23 met · WIN 17 · LONG 6 | ||||
| Final |  Belmont
|
62 | vs  Northern Iowa
|
67 | BEL -1.5 | BEL lost by 5 · not covered | 149.5 | UNDER 149.5 · 51.8% (129) ✓ | 4 met · UNI 1 · BEL 3 | ||||
| Final |  Hampton
|
56 | vs  Elon
|
55 | ELON Solid 62% ✗ | ELON -3.5 | ELON lost by 1 · not covered | 147.5 | UNDER 147.5 · 51.8% (111) ✓ | 2 met · ELON 2 · HAMP 0 | |||
| Final |  The Citadel
|
76 | vs  Mercer
|
84 | MER Solid 66% ✓ | MER -4.5 | MER won by 8 · covered | 138.5 | UNDER 138.5 · 51.8% (160) ✗ | 22 met · MER 17 · CIT 5 | |||
| Final |  Akron
|
84 | @  W Michigan
|
90 | AKR Solid 78% ✗ | AKR -8.5 | AKR lost by 6 · not covered | 142.5 | 36 met · WMU 9 · AKR 27 | ||||
| Final |  Charleston So
|
55 | vs  UNC Asheville
|
60 | UNCA Banker 87% ✓ | UNCA -12.5 | CHSO +12.5 · covers 53% ✓ | UNCA won by 5 · not covered | 141.5 | UNDER 141.5 · 51.8% (115) ✓ | 48 met · UNCA 33 · CHSO 15 | ||
| Final |  E Michigan
|
62 | @  C Michigan
|
65 | CMU Solid 78% ✓ | CMU -8.5 | CMU won by 3 · not covered | 127.5 | 44 met · CMU 17 · EMU 27 | ||||
| Final |  N Illinois
|
78 | @  Buffalo
|
68 | NIU -1.5 | NIU won by 10 · covered | 149.5 | 29 met · BUF 22 · NIU 7 | |||||
| Final |  Ball State
|
70 | @  Bowling Green
|
80 | BGSU Solid 69% ✓ | BGSU -5.5 | BGSU won by 10 · covered | 142.5 | 35 met · BGSU 22 · BALL 13 | ||||
| Final |  Ohio
|
72 | @  Miami OH
|
59 | OHIO Solid 62% ✓ | OHIO -3.5 | OHIO won by 13 · covered | 144.5 | 50 met · M-OH 16 · OHIO 34 | ||||
| Final |  VCU
|
86 | @  25Dayton
|
91 | DAY Solid 75% ✓ | DAY -7.5 | DAY won by 5 · not covered | 134.5 | 23 met · DAY 8 · VCU 15 | ||||
| Final |  Evansville
|
58 | vs  Drake
|
79 | DRKE Banker 89% ✓ | DRKE -13.5 | EVAN +13.5 · covers 53% ✗ | DRKE won by 21 · covered | 143.5 | UNDER 143.5 · 51.8% (137) ✓ | 46 met · DRKE 29 · EVAN 17 | ||
| Final |  VMI
|
66 | vs  ETSU
|
98 | ETSU Banker 94% ✓ | ETSU -17.5 | VMI +17.5 · covers 53% ✗ | ETSU won by 32 · covered | 148.5 | UNDER 148.5 · 51.8% (164) ✗ | 22 met · ETSU 20 · VMI 2 | ||
| Final |  Kent State
|
71 | @  Toledo
|
86 | TOL Solid 75% ✓ | TOL -7.5 | TOL won by 15 · covered | 153.5 | 31 met · TOL 11 · KENT 20 | ||||
| Final |  South Dakota
|
62 | vs  Oral Roberts
|
77 | ORU Solid 69% ✓ | ORU -5.5 | ORU won by 15 · covered | 151.5 | UNDER 151.5 · 51.8% (139) ✓ | 21 met · ORU 11 · SDAK 10 | |||
| Final |  Presbyterian
|
60 | vs  Gardner-Webb
|
61 | GWEB Solid 69% ✓ | GWEB -5.5 | GWEB won by 1 · not covered | 142.5 | UNDER 142.5 · 51.8% (121) ✓ | 30 met · GWEB 22 · PRES 8 | |||
| Final |  W Illinois
|
57 | vs  Little Rock
|
82 | LR Solid 69% ✓ | LR -5.5 | LR won by 25 · covered | 137.5 | UNDER 137.5 · 51.8% (139) ✗ | 1 met · LR 1 · WIU 0 | |||
| Final |  Wichita St
|
75 | @  Tulane
|
85 | TULN Solid 62% ✓ | TULN -3.5 | TULN won by 10 · covered | 154.5 | 11 met · TULN 4 · WICH 7 | ||||
| Final |  Pepperdine
|
52 | vs  San Diego
|
57 | PEPP Solid 62% ✗ | PEPP -3.5 | PEPP lost by 5 · not covered | 152.5 | UNDER 152.5 · 51.8% (109) ✓ | 52 met · USD 30 · PEPP 22 | |||
| Final |  UIC
|
47 | vs  Bradley
|
74 | BRAD Solid 85% ✓ | BRAD -11.5 | BRAD won by 27 · covered | 136.5 | UNDER 136.5 · 51.8% (121) ✓ | 11 met · BRAD 9 · UIC 2 | |||
| Final |  Boise St
|
79 | @  21San Diego St
|
77 | SDSU Solid 72% ✗ | SDSU -6.5 | SDSU lost by 2 · not covered | 136.5 | 30 met · SDSU 18 · BOIS 12 | ||||
| Final |  Morehead St
|
84 | vs  UT Martin
|
78 | MORE Solid 75% ✓ | MORE -7.5 | MORE won by 6 · not covered | 148.5 | UNDER 148.5 · 51.8% (162) ✗ | 40 met · UTM 9 · MORE 31 | |||
| Final |  LMU
|
70 | vs  Portland
|
78 | LMU Solid 75% ✗ | LMU -7.5 | LMU lost by 8 · not covered | 142.5 | UNDER 142.5 · 51.8% (148) ✗ | 50 met · PORT 25 · LMU 25 |