NCAA Predictor
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Thursday, March 7, 2024 54 games

Today: winner picks 27 of 43 right · line picks 0 of 1 right · total picks 9 of 12 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.

Time / StatusAwayHomePickLinePredictionLine pickResultO/UTotal pickModel totalPrev. meetings
Final GA Southern 76 vs South Alabama 71 USA Solid 62% ✗ USA -3.5 USA lost by 5 · not covered 151.5 UNDER 151.5 · 51.8% (147) ✓ 23 met · USA 13 · GASO 10
Final Missouri St 60 vs Murray St 35 MUR -2.5 MUR lost by 25 · not covered 139.5 UNDER 139.5 · 51.8% (95) ✓ 8 met · MUR 5 · MOST 3
Final Coastal 66 vs Louisiana 80 UL Solid 85% ✓ UL -11.5 UL won by 14 · covered 149.5 UNDER 149.5 · 51.8% (146) ✓ 9 met · UL 7 · CCU 2
Final Valparaiso 61 vs Belmont 86 BEL Banker 89% ✓ BEL -13.5 VAL +13.5 · covers 53% ✗ BEL won by 25 · covered 153.5 UNDER 153.5 · 51.8% (147) ✓ 7 met · BEL 5 · VAL 2
Final Pacific 43 vs Pepperdine 102 PEPP Solid 81% ✓ PEPP -9.5 PEPP won by 59 · covered 150.5 UNDER 150.5 · 51.8% (145) ✓ 29 met · PEPP 13 · PAC 16
Final Texas St 75 vs Southern Miss 59 USM -2.5 USM lost by 16 · not covered 136.5 UNDER 136.5 · 51.8% (134) ✓ 4 met · USM 3 · TXST 1
Final Canisius 62 @ Fairfield 74 FAIR Solid 78% ✓ FAIR -8.5 FAIR won by 12 · covered 142.5 44 met · FAIR 29 · CAN 15
Final Iona 60 @ Manhattan 77 IONA Solid 81% ✗ IONA -9.5 IONA lost by 17 · not covered 144.5 47 met · MAN 17 · IONA 30
Final Marist 64 @ Quinnipiac 73 QUIN Solid 66% ✓ QUIN -4.5 QUIN won by 9 · covered 143.5 24 met · QUIN 15 · MRST 9
Final Niagara 66 @ Siena 59 NIA Solid 75% ✓ NIA -7.5 NIA won by 7 · not covered 136.5 48 met · SIE 28 · NIA 20
Final Rutgers 66 @ Wisconsin 78 WIS Solid 81% ✓ WIS -9.5 WIS won by 12 · covered 133.5 15 met · WIS 9 · RUTG 6
Final UAB 100 @ Temple 72 UAB Solid 75% ✓ UAB -7.5 UAB won by 28 · covered 142.5 1 met · TEM 1 · UAB 0
Final Jacksonville 87 @ Stetson 88 STET Solid 69% ✓ STET -5.5 STET won by 1 · not covered 135.5 44 met · STET 17 · JAX 27
Final Evansville 59 vs Illinois St 53 ILST Solid 62% ✗ ILST -3.5 ILST lost by 6 · not covered 134.5 UNDER 134.5 · 51.8% (112) ✓ 49 met · ILST 33 · EVAN 16
Final Cleveland St 82 @ Youngstown St 70 YSU Solid 83% ✗ YSU -10.5 YSU lost by 12 · not covered 148.5 46 met · YSU 16 · CLE 30
Final Purdue FW 65 @ Oakland 75 OAK Solid 66% ✓ OAK -4.5 OAK won by 10 · covered 147.5 26 met · OAK 17 · PFW 9
Final Bucknell 80 @ American 57 AMER Solid 69% ✗ AMER -5.5 AMER lost by 23 · not covered 128.5 48 met · AMER 16 · BUCK 32
Final Navy 61 @ Boston U 70 BU Solid 62% ✓ BU -3.5 BU won by 9 · covered 132.5 22 met · BU 11 · NAVY 11
Final Lehigh 76 @ Lafayette 61 LEH -2.5 LEH won by 15 · covered 134.5 49 met · LAF 18 · LEH 31
Final Holy Cross 64 @ Colgate 81 COLG Banker 96% ✓ COLG -19.5 COLG won by 17 · not covered 142.5 48 met · COLG 26 · HC 22
Final Southern Utah 60 @ SF Austin 87 SFA Solid 78% ✓ SFA -8.5 SFA won by 27 · covered 147.5 2 met · SFA 1 · SUU 1
Final Utah Tech 79 @ UT Rio Grande 74 UTU Solid 66% ✓ UTU -4.5 UTU won by 5 · covered 149.5 6 met · RGV 2 · UTU 4
Final Coppin St 60 @ Morgan St 78 MORG Solid 78% ✓ MORG -8.5 MORG won by 18 · covered 142.5 51 met · MORG 29 · COPP 22
Final SC State 68 @ NC Central 79 NCCU Solid 75% ✓ NCCU -7.5 NCCU won by 11 · covered 142.5 22 met · NCCU 18 · SCST 4
Final Tennessee St 59 vs W Illinois 61 WIU -2.5 WIU won by 2 · not covered 132.5 UNDER 132.5 · 51.8% (120) ✓ 2 met · WIU 1 · TNST 1
Final Seattle U 59 @ Abilene Chrstn 64 SEA -1.5 SEA lost by 5 · not covered 140.5 4 met · ACU 2 · SEA 2
Final CA Baptist 57 @ UT Arlington 71 UTA Solid 75% ✓ UTA -7.5 UTA won by 14 · covered 138.5 2 met · UTA 0 · CBU 2
Final Utah Valley 63 @ Tarleton St 60 TAR Solid 72% ✗ TAR -6.5 TAR lost by 3 · not covered 137.5 7 met · TAR 3 · UVU 4
Final Saint Peter's 56 @ Rider 61 RID -1.5 RID won by 5 · covered 136.5 52 met · RID 30 · SPU 22
Final Delaware St 59 @ MD Eastern 67 DSU Solid 66% ✗ DSU -4.5 DSU lost by 8 · not covered 128.5 40 met · UMES 17 · DSU 23
Final North Alabama 71 @ Austin Peay 77 APSU Solid 62% ✓ APSU -3.5 APSU won by 6 · covered 147.5 3 met · APSU 2 · UNA 1
Final N Kentucky 99 @ Wright St 97 WRST Solid 75% ✗ WRST -7.5 WRST lost by 2 · not covered 160.5 21 met · WRST 12 · NKU 9
Final Nicholls 80 @ SE Louisiana 54 SELA Solid 62% ✗ SELA -3.5 SELA lost by 26 · not covered 139.5 43 met · SELA 24 · NICH 19
Final AR-Pine Bluff 84 @ Jackson St 89 JKST Solid 78% ✓ JKST -8.5 JKST won by 5 · not covered 154.5 45 met · JKST 34 · UAPB 11
Final Grambling 74 @ Alabama A&M 73 GRAM -2.5 GRAM won by 1 · not covered 131.5 44 met · AAMU 22 · GRAM 22
Final Southern 65 @ Alabama St 57 ALST -0.5 ALST lost by 8 · not covered 132.5 48 met · ALST 25 · SOU 23
Final Miss Valley St 67 @ Alcorn St 74 ALCN Banker 95% ✓ ALCN -18.5 ALCN won by 7 · not covered 133.5 46 met · ALCN 27 · MVSU 19
Final Marshall 86 vs Georgia St 74 MRSH -2.5 MRSH won by 12 · covered 151.5 UNDER 151.5 · 51.8% (160) ✗ 4 met · GAST 1 · MRSH 3
Final Sam Houston 72 @ Louisiana Tech 66 LT Solid 81% ✗ LT -9.5 LT lost by 6 · not covered 136.5 3 met · LT 1 · SHSU 2
Final FIU 76 @ UTEP 83 UTEP Solid 78% ✓ UTEP -8.5 UTEP won by 7 · not covered 145.5 17 met · UTEP 14 · FIU 3
Final Howard 58 @ Norfolk St 77 NORF Solid 66% ✓ NORF -4.5 NORF won by 19 · covered 146.5 41 met · NORF 32 · HOW 9
Final Washington 74 @ 18Washington St 68 WSU Solid 72% ✗ WSU -6.5 WSU lost by 6 · not covered 149.5 46 met · WSU 21 · WASH 25
Final Colorado 79 @ Oregon 75 ORE Solid 62% ✗ ORE -3.5 ORE lost by 4 · not covered 150.5 25 met · ORE 11 · COLO 14
Final Milwaukee 95 @ Green Bay 84 GB -1.5 GB lost by 11 · not covered 145.5 47 met · GB 24 · MILW 23
Final 5Arizona 88 @ UCLA 65 ARIZ Solid 81% ✓ ARIZ -9.5 ARIZ won by 23 · covered 147.5 50 met · UCLA 26 · ARIZ 24
Final UIC 84 vs S Illinois 82 SIU Solid 69% ✗ SIU -5.5 SIU lost by 2 · not covered 135.5 UNDER 135.5 · 51.8% (166) ✗ 8 met · SIU 6 · UIC 2
Final Cal Poly 68 @ UC Irvine 82 UCI Banker 98% ✓ UCI -23.5 UCI won by 14 · not covered 138.5 OVER 138.5 · 52.3% (150) ✓ 46 met · UCI 33 · CP 13
Final Fullerton 74 @ UC Riverside 84 UCR -2.5 UCR won by 10 · covered 137.5 43 met · UCR 17 · CSUF 26
Final UC Davis 70 @ UC San Diego 63 UCSD Solid 72% ✗ UCSD -6.5 UCSD lost by 7 · not covered 140.5 6 met · UCSD 2 · UCD 4
Final Santa Barbara 76 @ Long Beach St 74 LBSU Solid 66% ✗ LBSU -4.5 LBSU lost by 2 · not covered 154.5 47 met · LBSU 24 · UCSB 23
Final SIUE 63 vs Morehead St 78 MORE Solid 81% ✓ MORE -9.5 MORE won by 15 · covered 135.5 UNDER 135.5 · 51.8% (141) ✗ 22 met · MORE 16 · SIUE 6
Final Utah 85 @ Oregon St 92 UTAH Solid 75% ✗ UTAH -7.5 UTAH lost by 7 · not covered 142.5 22 met · ORST 11 · UTAH 11
Final Arizona St 73 @ USC 81 USC Solid 81% ✓ USC -9.5 USC won by 8 · not covered 145.5 43 met · USC 25 · ASU 18
Final California 58 @ Stanford 80 STAN Solid 66% ✓ STAN -4.5 STAN won by 22 · covered 155.5 47 met · STAN 27 · CAL 20