Wednesday, January 31, 2024 44 games

Today: winner picks 21 of 31 right · line picks 8 of 9 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.

Time / Status	Away		Home		Pick	Line	Prediction	Line pick	Result	O/U	Total pick	Model total	Prev. meetings
Final	UNC Greensboro	85	@ VMI	79	UNCG Banker 92% ✓	UNCG -15.5		VMI +15.5 · covers 53% ✓	UNCG won by 6 · not covered	150.5			20 met · VMI 4 · UNCG 16
Final	24Alabama	85	@ Georgia	76	ALA Solid 72% ✓	ALA -6.5			ALA won by 9 · covered	166.5			25 met · UGA 10 · ALA 15
Final	St John's	77	@ Xavier	88		XAV -1.5			XAV won by 11 · covered	158.5			22 met · XAV 16 · SJU 6
Final	Northwestern	96	@ 2Purdue	105	PUR Banker 91% ✓	PUR -14.5		NU +14.5 · covers 53% ✓	PUR won by 9 · not covered	140.5			34 met · PUR 22 · NU 12
Final	Austin Peay	43	@ Jacksonville	63		APSU -2.5			APSU lost by 20 · not covered	137.5			1 met · JAX 1 · APSU 0
Final	Lipscomb	76	@ North Florida	85		LIP -2.5			LIP lost by 9 · not covered	153.5			37 met · UNF 19 · LIP 18
Final	Chattanooga	91	@ W Carolina	85	WCU Solid 66% ✗	WCU -4.5			WCU lost by 6 · not covered	146.5			42 met · WCU 17 · UTC 25
Final	Furman	82	@ The Citadel	79	FUR Solid 75% ✓	FUR -7.5			FUR won by 3 · not covered	146.5			45 met · CIT 11 · FUR 34
Final	ETSU	54	@ Mercer	49		MER -1.5			MER lost by 5 · not covered	135.5			39 met · MER 13 · ETSU 26
Final	Loyola MD	52	@ Bucknell	67	BUCK Solid 77% ✓	BUCK -8			BUCK won by 15 · covered	132.0			23 met · BUCK 16 · L-MD 7
Final	George Mason	73	@ Saint Joseph's	75	JOES Solid 66% ✓	JOES -4.5			JOES won by 2 · not covered	143.5			15 met · JOES 5 · GMU 10
Final	Richmond	83	@ Fordham	69		RICH -2.5			RICH won by 14 · covered	138.5			28 met · FOR 6 · RICH 22
Final	La Salle	69	@ Rhode Island	71		URI -2.5			URI won by 2 · not covered	149.5			29 met · URI 21 · LAS 8
Final	American	69	@ Lafayette	66		AMER -1.5			AMER won by 3 · covered	129.0			47 met · LAF 18 · AMER 29
Final	Chicago St	60	@ Duquesne	65	DUQ Banker 87% ✓	DUQ -12.5		CHST +12.5 · covers 53% ✓	DUQ won by 5 · not covered	134.5			Never met
Final	Navy	65	@ Lehigh	77	LEH Solid 66% ✓	LEH -4.5			LEH won by 12 · covered	139.5			46 met · LEH 29 · NAVY 17
Final	Army	55	@ Colgate	74	COLG Banker 91% ✓	COLG -14.5		ARMY +14.5 · covers 53% ✗	COLG won by 19 · covered	127.5			47 met · COLG 32 · ARMY 15
Final	Charleston So	63	@ Radford	60	RAD Solid 83% ✗	RAD -10.5			RAD lost by 3 · not covered	135.5			41 met · RAD 26 · CHSO 15
Final	UNC Asheville	73	@ Gardner-Webb	80		GWEB -1.5			GWEB won by 7 · covered	152.5			29 met · GWEB 11 · UNCA 18
Final	SC Upstate	73	@ Presbyterian	80		PRES -1.5			PRES won by 7 · covered	140.5			11 met · PRES 4 · UPST 7
Final	South Florida	71	@ East Carolina	60		ECU -1.5			ECU lost by 11 · not covered	135.5			26 met · ECU 12 · USF 14
Final	Wichita St	68	@ Tulsa	79		TLSA -1.5			TLSA won by 11 · covered	153.5			24 met · TLSA 4 · WICH 20
Final	18Baylor	77	@ UCF	69	BAY Solid 62% ✓	BAY -3.5			BAY won by 8 · covered	138.5			Never met
Final	Cincinnati	65	@ West Virginia	69	CIN Solid 66% ✗	CIN -4.5			CIN lost by 4 · not covered	144.5			10 met · WVU 6 · CIN 4
Final	Wake Forest	72	@ Pitt	77		PITT -2.5			PITT won by 5 · covered	144.5			13 met · PITT 6 · WAKE 7
Final	Notre Dame	53	@ Virginia	65	UVA Banker 89% ✓	UVA -13.5		ND +13.5 · covers 53% ✓	UVA won by 12 · not covered	113.5			15 met · UVA 12 · ND 3
Final	Wofford	79	@ Samford	81	SAM Solid 85% ✓	SAM -11.5			SAM won by 2 · not covered	157.5			26 met · SAM 5 · WOF 21
Final	Indiana St	78	@ Belmont	72	INST Solid 77% ✓	INST -8			INST won by 6 · not covered	166.0			5 met · BEL 2 · INST 3
Final	Incarnate Word	66	@ East Texas A&M	71	ETAM Solid 62% ✓	ETAM -3.5			ETAM won by 5 · covered	138.5			2 met · ETAM 1 · UIW 1
Final	UL Monroe	72	@ Louisiana	80	UL Banker 87% ✓	UL -12.5		ULM +12.5 · covers 53% ✓	UL won by 8 · not covered	142.5			35 met · UL 24 · ULM 11
Final	Florida	94	@ 10Kentucky	91	UK Solid 75% ✗	UK -7.5			UK lost by 3 · not covered	171.5			49 met · UK 32 · FLA 17
Final	Northern Iowa	69	@ Bradley	85	BRAD Solid 75% ✓	BRAD -7.5			BRAD won by 16 · covered	137.5			49 met · BRAD 19 · UNI 30
Final	Valparaiso	70	@ Drake	81	DRKE Banker 96% ✓	DRKE -19.5			DRKE won by 11 · not covered	144.5			14 met · DRKE 9 · VAL 5
Final	UIC	60	@ Evansville	77		UIC -1.5			UIC lost by 17 · not covered	140.5			7 met · EVAN 1 · UIC 6
Final	Missouri St	76	@ S Illinois	75	SIU Solid 66% ✗	SIU -4.5			SIU lost by 1 · not covered	134.5			50 met · SIU 28 · MOST 22
Final	Rice	74	@ Memphis	71	MEM Banker 91% ✗	MEM -14.5		RICE +14.5 · covers 53% ✓	MEM lost by 3 · not covered	157.5			8 met · MEM 7 · RICE 1
Final	Southern Miss	71	@ Arkansas St	78	ARST Solid 69% ✓	ARST -5.5			ARST won by 7 · covered	149.5			5 met · ARST 2 · USM 3
Final	Arkansas	91	@ Missouri	84	MIZ Solid 69% ✗	MIZ -5.5			MIZ lost by 7 · not covered	145.5			27 met · MIZ 10 · ARK 17
Final	Providence	65	@ 1UConn	74	CONN Banker 89% ✓	CONN -13.5		PROV +13.5 · covers 53% ✓	CONN won by 9 · not covered	136.5			20 met · CONN 10 · PROV 10
Final	Penn State	61	@ Rutgers	46	RUTG Solid 72% ✗	RUTG -6.5			RUTG lost by 15 · not covered	144.5			18 met · RUTG 9 · PSU 9
Final	Vanderbilt	54	@ 16Auburn	81	AUB Banker 95% ✓	AUB -18.5			AUB won by 27 · covered	142.5			27 met · AUB 9 · VAN 18
Final	UAB	82	@ North Texas	79	UNT Solid 72% ✗	UNT -6.5			UNT lost by 3 · not covered	133.5			15 met · UNT 8 · UAB 7
Final	Boise St	86	@ 19New Mexico	78	UNM Solid 83% ✗	UNM -10.5			UNM lost by 8 · not covered	149.5			23 met · UNM 13 · BOIS 10
Final	Santa Clara	77	@ Saint Mary's	82	SMC Banker 89% ✓	SMC -13.5		SCU +13.5 · covers 53% ✓	SMC won by 5 · not covered	135.5			48 met · SMC 35 · SCU 13