Monday, January 6, 2025 16 games

Today: winner picks 11 of 14 right · line picks 2 of 2 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 38,000 past games it was right about 50% of the time. Not betting advice.

Time / Status	Away		Home		Pick	Line	Prediction	Line pick	Result	O/U	Total pick	Model total	Prev. meetings
Final	Norfolk St	73	@ Delaware St	64	NORF Solid 72% ✓	NORF -6.5			NORF won by 9 · covered	145.5			40 met · DSU 17 · NORF 23
Final	UT Rio Grande	75	@ SE Louisiana	79	RGV Solid 62% ✗	RGV -3.5			RGV lost by 4 · not covered	146.5			Never met
Final	Wisconsin	75	@ Rutgers	63		WIS -1.5			WIS won by 12 · covered	156.5			16 met · RUTG 6 · WIS 10
Final	South Florida	91	@ Wichita St	72	WICH Solid 78% ✗	WICH -8.5			WICH lost by 19 · not covered	155.5			11 met · WICH 9 · USF 2
Final	AR-Pine Bluff	91	@ Alabama St	93	ALST Banker 89% ✓	ALST -13.5		UAPB +13.5 · covers 53% ✓	ALST won by 2 · not covered	161.5			47 met · ALST 27 · UAPB 20
Final	Hou Christian	83	@ SF Austin	73	SFA Solid 78% ✗	SFA -8.5			SFA lost by 10 · not covered	129.5			13 met · SFA 13 · HCU 0
Final	McNeese	92	@ N'Western St	69	MCN Solid 85% ✓	MCN -11.5			MCN won by 23 · covered	132.5			44 met · NWST 24 · MCN 20
Final	Texas A&M-CC	97	@ LSU N Orleans	83	AMCC Solid 85% ✓	AMCC -11.5			AMCC won by 14 · covered	152.5			24 met · NOLA 13 · AMCC 11
Final	Nicholls	83	@ East Texas A&M	61	NICH Solid 69% ✓	NICH -5.5			NICH won by 22 · covered	142.5			5 met · ETAM 1 · NICH 4
Final	Incarnate Word	58	@ Lamar	72		LAM -2.5			LAM won by 14 · covered	136.5			18 met · LAM 11 · UIW 7
Final	Miss Valley St	67	@ Alabama A&M	79	AAMU Banker 94% ✓	AAMU -17.5		MVSU +17.5 · covers 53% ✓	AAMU won by 12 · not covered	137.5			43 met · AAMU 24 · MVSU 19
Final	SC State	85	@ Coppin St	77	SCST Solid 85% ✓	SCST -11.5			SCST won by 8 · not covered	133.5			36 met · COPP 16 · SCST 20
Final	Southern	84	@ Prairie View	80	SOU Solid 66% ✓	SOU -4.5			SOU won by 4 · not covered	145.5			46 met · PV 20 · SOU 26
Final	Ohio State	89	@ Minnesota	88	OSU Solid 66% ✓	OSU -4.5			OSU won by 1 · not covered	138.5			36 met · MINN 12 · OSU 24
Final	Grambling	66	@ Texas Southern	71	TXSO Solid 62% ✓	TXSO -3.5			TXSO won by 5 · covered	137.5			51 met · TXSO 36 · GRAM 15
Final	TCU	46	@ 12Houston	65	HOU Banker 95% ✓	HOU -18.5			HOU won by 19 · covered	128.5			12 met · HOU 6 · TCU 6