Thursday, December 19, 2024 26 games

Today: winner picks 18 of 21 right · line picks 0 of 1 right · total picks 5 of 6 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 38,000 past games it was right about 50% of the time. Not betting advice.

Time / Status	Away		Home		Pick	Line	Prediction	Line pick	Result	O/U	Total pick	Model total	Prev. meetings
Final	Milligan	69	@ W Carolina	78	WCU Banker 95% ✓								2 met · WCU 2 · MILG 0
Final	UNT Dallas	69	@ Rice	68									Never met
Final	SW Adventist	58	@ UTSA	117	UTSA Banker 95% ✓								1 met · UTSA 1 · SWA 0
Final	Alabama St	54	vs Norfolk St	71	NORF Solid 69% ✓	NORF -5.5			NORF won by 17 · covered	146.5	UNDER 146.5 · 51.8% (125) ✓		Never met
Final	Schreiner	57	@ Incarnate Word	101	UIW Banker 95% ✓								2 met · UIW 2 · SCHR 0
Final	VA Lynchburg	60	@ UNC Asheville	114	UNCA Banker 95% ✓								1 met · UNCA 1 · VUL 0
Final	Charleston So	69	@ North Alabama	86	UNA Solid 81% ✓	UNA -9.5			UNA won by 17 · covered	148.5			1 met · UNA 1 · CHSO 0
Final	Oakland	75	@ Cleveland St	92		CLE -0.5			CLE won by 17 · covered	128.5			27 met · CLE 11 · OAK 16
Final	Buffalo	49	@ Georgia	100	UGA Banker 98% ✓	UGA -26.5			UGA won by 51 · covered	147.5	OVER 147.5 · 52.3% (149) ✓		Never met
Final	Franciscan	47	@ Saint Francis	104	SFPA Banker 95% ✓								6 met · SFPA 6 · FRN 0
Final	UT Martin	69	@ Morehead St	70	MORE Solid 69% ✓	MORE -5.5			MORE won by 1 · not covered	143.5			41 met · MORE 32 · UTM 9
Final	Lipscomb	65	@ MTSU	67		MTSU -1.5			MTSU won by 2 · covered	148.5			3 met · MTSU 2 · LIP 1
Final	UC Irvine	92	@ Belmont	84		UCI -2.5			UCI won by 8 · covered	154.5			Never met
Final	Grambling	60	vs Delaware St	73	GRAM Solid 66% ✗	GRAM -4.5			GRAM lost by 13 · not covered	141.5	UNDER 141.5 · 51.8% (133) ✓		1 met · DSU 1 · GRAM 0
Final	SIUE	56	@ Little Rock	60	LR Solid 62% ✓	LR -3.5			LR won by 4 · covered	137.5			4 met · LR 2 · SIUE 2
Final	LSU N Orleans	62	@ Texas	98	TEX Banker 98% ✓	TEX -33.5			TEX won by 36 · covered	148.5	OVER 148.5 · 52.3% (160) ✓		1 met · TEX 1 · NOLA 0
Final	Chadron St	72	@ S Dakota St	87	SDST Banker 95% ✓								2 met · SDST 2 · CHAD 0
Final	E Illinois	72	@ SE Missouri	79	SEMO Solid 66% ✓	SEMO -4.5			SEMO won by 7 · covered	140.5			45 met · SEMO 26 · EIU 19
Final	Tennessee Tech	79	@ Lindenwood	73	LIN Solid 62% ✗	LIN -3.5			LIN lost by 6 · not covered	145.5			3 met · LIN 1 · TNTC 2
Final	Tennessee St	75	@ S Indiana	77	USI Solid 66% ✓	USI -4.5			USI won by 2 · not covered	150.5			5 met · USI 2 · TNST 3
Final	Bellarmine	55	@ Wyoming	92	WYO Banker 89% ✓	WYO -13.5		BELL +13.5 · covers 53% ✗	WYO won by 37 · covered	140.5			Never met
Final	Long Beach St	79	@ Pepperdine	76	PEPP Solid 69% ✗	PEPP -5.5			PEPP lost by 3 · not covered	138.5			12 met · PEPP 6 · LBSU 6
Final	Chicago St	51	@ Grand Canyon	74	GCU Banker 98% ✓	GCU -31.5			GCU won by 23 · not covered	150.5	OVER 150.5 · 52.3% (125) ✗		16 met · GCU 14 · CHST 2
Final	South Dakota	87	@ Utah Tech	92		SDAK -2.5			SDAK lost by 5 · not covered	163.5			Never met
Final	Northern NM	50	@ New Mexico St	87	NMSU Banker 95% ✓								11 met · NMSU 11 · NNMC 0
Final	Merrimack	68	@ Saint Mary's	73	SMC Banker 97% ✓	SMC -20.5			SMC won by 5 · not covered	128.5	OVER 128.5 · 52.3% (141) ✓		Never met