Friday, December 20, 2024 23 games

Today: winner picks 17 of 20 right · line picks 1 of 1 right · total picks 3 of 6 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 38,000 past games it was right about 50% of the time. Not betting advice.

Time / Status	Away		Home		Pick	Line	Prediction	Line pick	Result	O/U	Total pick	Model total	Prev. meetings
Final	Valparaiso	76	@ W Michigan	73		WMU -1.5			WMU lost by 3 · not covered	153.5			4 met · WMU 1 · VAL 3
Final	VA Lynchburg	63	@ Radford	122	RAD Banker 95% ✓								Never met
Final	Hou Christian	45	@ 12Texas A&M	77	TA&M Banker 98% ✓	TA&M -31.5			TA&M won by 32 · covered	140.5	OVER 140.5 · 52.3% (122) ✗		3 met · TA&M 3 · HCU 0
Final	Southern NO	79	@ N'Western St	89	NWST Banker 95% ✓								4 met · NWST 3 · SUNO 1
Final	Norfolk St	76	vs Grambling	70	NORF Solid 75% ✓	NORF -7.5			NORF won by 6 · not covered	137.5	UNDER 137.5 · 51.8% (146) ✗		1 met · GRAM 0 · NORF 1
Final	UIC	79	@ Seattle U	68	SEA Solid 72% ✗	SEA -6.5			SEA lost by 11 · not covered	149.5			Never met
Final	Defiance	52	@ Purdue FW	103	PFW Banker 95% ✓								1 met · PFW 1 · DFC 0
Final	Rider	66	@ Penn	79	PENN Solid 66% ✓	PENN -4.5			PENN won by 13 · covered	136.5			6 met · PENN 2 · RID 4
Final	Delaware St	83	vs Alabama St	80	ALST Solid 69% ✗	ALST -5.5			ALST lost by 3 · not covered	148.5	UNDER 148.5 · 51.8% (163) ✗		Never met
Final	Loyola NO	62	@ SE Louisiana	96	SELA Banker 95% ✓								8 met · SELA 8 · LNO 0
Final	Longwood	82	@ NC Central	67	LONG Solid 62% ✓	LONG -3.5			LONG won by 15 · covered	143.5			7 met · NCCU 4 · LONG 3
Final	Holy Cross	78	@ Siena	70	SIE Solid 66% ✗	SIE -4.5			SIE lost by 8 · not covered	131.5			11 met · SIE 8 · HC 3
Final	Akron	58	vs Yale	74	YALE Solid 66% ✓	YALE -4.5			YALE won by 16 · covered	153.5	UNDER 153.5 · 51.8% (132) ✓		Never met
Final	Delaware	64	@ Saint Peter's	72		SPU -2.5			SPU won by 8 · covered	141.5			1 met · SPU 0 · DEL 1
Final	Dillard	56	@ Tulane	99	TULN Banker 95% ✓								1 met · TULN 1 · DLRD 0
Final	Texas Wesleyan	56	@ SF Austin	82	SFA Banker 95% ✓								3 met · SFA 3 · TWES 0
Final	St John's	72	@ Providence	70	SJU Solid 69% ✓	SJU -5.5			SJU won by 2 · not covered	142.5			37 met · PROV 24 · SJU 13
Final	SD Mines	48	@ North Dakota	80									Never met
Final	App State	64	@ North Texas	68	UNT Solid 85% ✓	UNT -11.5			UNT won by 4 · not covered	123.5			Never met
Final	19Cincinnati	66	vs 22Dayton	59	CIN Solid 62% ✓	CIN -3.5			CIN won by 7 · covered	136.5	UNDER 136.5 · 51.8% (125) ✓		8 met · DAY 4 · CIN 4
Final	Florida A&M	57	@ BYU	103	BYU Banker 98% ✓	BYU -33.5			BYU won by 46 · covered	147.5	OVER 147.5 · 52.3% (160) ✓		Never met
Final	Jackson St	61	@ UTEP	67	UTEP Banker 91% ✓	UTEP -14.5		JKST +14.5 · covers 53% ✓	UTEP won by 6 · not covered	140.5			2 met · UTEP 1 · JKST 1
Final	Southern	73	@ LMU	89	LMU Solid 72% ✓	LMU -6.5			LMU won by 16 · covered	136.5			Never met