Monday, December 16, 2024 18 games

Today: winner picks 13 of 13 right · line picks 3 of 3 right · total picks 0 of 1 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 38,000 past games it was right about 50% of the time. Not betting advice.

Time / Status	Away		Home		Pick	Line	Prediction	Line pick	Result	O/U	Total pick	Model total	Prev. meetings
Final	SE Louisiana	75	@ Grambling	65		GRAM -2.5			GRAM lost by 10 · not covered	134.5			5 met · GRAM 3 · SELA 2
Final	The Citadel	71	@ C Arkansas	73	CARK Solid 66% ✓	CARK -4.5			CARK won by 2 · not covered	138.5			1 met · CARK 1 · CIT 0
Final	Cairn	64	@ MD Eastern	81									Never met
Final	Wofford	67	@ Charleston	77	COFC Solid 69% ✓	COFC -5.5			COFC won by 10 · covered	148.5			23 met · COFC 16 · WOF 7
Final	WV Wesleyan	63	@ Marshall	93	MRSH Banker 95% ✓								1 met · MRSH 1 · WVWC 0
Final	CA Baptist	64	@ MTSU	75	MTSU Solid 66% ✓	MTSU -4.5			MTSU won by 11 · covered	148.5			1 met · MTSU 1 · CBU 0
Final	Grand Canyon	66	@ Louisiana Tech	74		GCU -2.5			GCU lost by 8 · not covered	143.5			1 met · LT 0 · GCU 1
Final	St Thomas TX	54	@ Sam Houston	80	SHSU Banker 95% ✓								3 met · SHSU 3 · STTX 0
Final	South Alabama	49	@ TCU	58	TCU Banker 87% ✓	TCU -12.5		USA +12.5 · covers 53% ✓	TCU won by 9 · not covered	136.5			Never met
Final	Oral Roberts	50	@ Texas Tech	86	TTU Banker 98% ✓	TTU -26.5			TTU won by 36 · covered	148.5	OVER 148.5 · 52.3% (136) ✗		3 met · TTU 2 · ORU 1
Final	Montana	76	@ Northern Iowa	104	UNI Solid 83% ✓	UNI -10.5			UNI won by 28 · covered	146.5			1 met · UNI 1 · MONT 0
Final	Air Force	76	@ N Colorado	81	UNCO Solid 81% ✓	UNCO -9.5			UNCO won by 5 · not covered	140.5			7 met · UNCO 2 · AF 5
Final	Alcorn St	75	@ Rice	77	RICE Banker 92% ✓	RICE -15.5		ALCN +15.5 · covers 53% ✓	RICE won by 2 · not covered	136.5			Never met
Final	Truett McCnnll	67	@ Lipscomb	99									Never met
Final	Southern Utah	69	@ New Mexico St	72	NMSU Solid 69% ✓	NMSU -5.5			NMSU won by 3 · not covered	146.5			2 met · NMSU 0 · SUU 2
Final	Whittier	66	@ Utah Tech	100									Never met
Final	Tarleton St	62	@ UTEP	67	UTEP Banker 91% ✓	UTEP -14.5		TAR +14.5 · covers 53% ✓	UTEP won by 5 · not covered	130.5			Never met
Final	Willamette	69	@ Portland	100	PORT Banker 95% ✓								3 met · PORT 3 · WLMT 0