Sunday, December 15, 2024 40 games

Today: winner picks 27 of 30 right · line picks 3 of 6 right · total picks 3 of 7 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 38,000 past games it was right about 50% of the time. Not betting advice.

Time / Status	Away		Home		Pick	Line	Prediction	Line pick	Result	O/U	Total pick	Model total	Prev. meetings
Final	Navy	72	@ Virginia Tech	80	VT Banker 89% ✓	VT -13.5		NAVY +13.5 · covers 53% ✓	VT won by 8 · not covered	140.5			2 met · VT 2 · NAVY 0
Final	Temple	60	@ Hofstra	42	HOF Solid 62% ✗	HOF -3.5			HOF lost by 18 · not covered	140.5			Never met
Final	South Alabama	81	@ East Texas A&M	72	USA Solid 75% ✓	USA -7.5			USA won by 9 · covered	135.5			1 met · ETAM 0 · USA 1
Final	KCU	63	@ Morehead St	86	MORE Banker 95% ✓								12 met · MORE 12 · KCU 0
Final	Omaha	51	@ 3Iowa State	83	ISU Banker 98% ✓	ISU -35.5			ISU won by 32 · not covered	149.5	OVER 149.5 · 52.3% (134) ✗		3 met · ISU 3 · OMA 0
Final	C Connecticut	69	@ Rhode Island	77	URI Solid 81% ✓	URI -9.5			URI won by 8 · not covered	142.5			3 met · URI 3 · CCSU 0
Final	Bethany (WV)	70	@ Miami OH	112									Never met
Final	Norfolk St	62	@ N Kentucky	71	NKU Solid 62% ✓	NKU -3.5			NKU won by 9 · covered	137.5			2 met · NKU 2 · NORF 0
Final	Northeastern	75	@ Old Dominion	71	NE Solid 72% ✓	NE -6.5			NE won by 4 · not covered	142.5			16 met · ODU 10 · NE 6
Final	Akron	81	vs Milwaukee	100		AKR -0.5			AKR lost by 19 · not covered	155.5	UNDER 155.5 · 51.8% (181) ✗		Never met
Final	LSU N Orleans	57	@ Iowa	104	IOWA Banker 98% ✓	IOWA -30.5			IOWA won by 47 · covered	162.5	OVER 162.5 · 52.3% (161) ✗		Never met
Final	Presbyterian	75	@ Miami	94	MIA Banker 94% ✓	MIA -17.5		PRES +17.5 · covers 53% ✗	MIA won by 19 · covered	143.5			Never met
Final	Purdue FW	99	@ E Michigan	76	PFW Solid 69% ✓	PFW -5.5			PFW won by 23 · covered	146.5			4 met · EMU 3 · PFW 1
Final	W Michigan	62	@ N Dakota St	98	NDSU Solid 78% ✓	NDSU -8.5			NDSU won by 36 · covered	144.5			4 met · NDSU 3 · WMU 1
Final	Chicago St	63	@ Mercer	75	MER Banker 92% ✓	MER -15.5		CHST +15.5 · covers 53% ✓	MER won by 12 · not covered	151.5			2 met · MER 2 · CHST 0
Final	Alabama A&M	63	@ Chattanooga	85	UTC Banker 93% ✓	UTC -16.5		AAMU +16.5 · covers 53% ✗	UTC won by 22 · covered	152.5			1 met · UTC 1 · AAMU 0
Final	Vermont	60	@ Colgate	65		UVM -1.5			UVM lost by 5 · not covered	128.5			3 met · COLG 1 · UVM 2
Final	Lncstr Bible	60	@ Binghamton	85									Never met
Final	Campbell	76	@ Morgan St	86	CAM Solid 69% ✗	CAM -5.5			CAM lost by 10 · not covered	151.5			3 met · MORG 2 · CAM 1
Final	UIC	77	@ Little Rock	69		LR -2.5			LR lost by 8 · not covered	145.5			1 met · LR 0 · UIC 1
Final	Shawnee St	56	@ S Indiana	91									Never met
Final	Eureka	52	@ SIUE	100	SIUE Banker 95% ✓								1 met · SIUE 1 · ERKA 0
Final	AR-Pine Bluff	57	@ Texas	121	TEX Banker 98% ✓	TEX -38.5			TEX won by 64 · covered	159.5	OVER 159.5 · 52.3% (178) ✓		2 met · TEX 2 · UAPB 0
Final	UTSA	95	@ North Dakota	85		UTSA -1.5			UTSA won by 10 · covered	154.5			1 met · UND 0 · UTSA 1
Final	Crown	61	@ St Thomas	100	STMN Banker 95% ✓								3 met · STMN 3 · CRWN 0
Final	St Mary's	56	@ SE Missouri	93									Never met
Final	Stonehill	69	@ Boston College	73	BC Banker 89% ✓	BC -13.5		STO +13.5 · covers 53% ✓	BC won by 4 · not covered	135.5			1 met · BC 1 · STO 0
Final	Georgia Tech	60	vs Northwestern	71	NU Solid 72% ✓	NU -6.5			NU won by 11 · covered	138.5	UNDER 138.5 · 51.8% (131) ✓		5 met · NU 3 · GT 2
Final	Lady of Lake	69	@ Incarnate Word	93	UIW Banker 95% ✓								6 met · UIW 5 · OLLU 1
Final	Champ Chrstn	56	@ UT Martin	123	UTM Banker 95% ✓								3 met · UTM 3 · CHCC 0
Final	Saint Louis	77	@ Illinois St	81		SLU -1.5			SLU lost by 4 · not covered	148.5			2 met · ILST 0 · SLU 2
Final	Mercyhurst	57	@ Kent State	82	KENT Banker 94% ✓	KENT -17.5		MERC +17.5 · covers 53% ✗	KENT won by 25 · covered	127.5			Never met
Final	Denver	59	@ Fullerton	74	CSUF Solid 62% ✓	CSUF -3.5			CSUF won by 15 · covered	137.5			3 met · CSUF 1 · DEN 2
Final	St Francis IL	55	@ UC Riverside	78									Never met
Final	SF Austin	61	@ 12Oregon	79	ORE Banker 97% ✓	ORE -21.5			ORE won by 18 · not covered	135.5	OVER 135.5 · 52.3% (140) ✓		1 met · ORE 1 · SFA 0
Final	Arkansas St	98	@ UAB	89	UAB Solid 62% ✗	UAB -3.5			UAB lost by 9 · not covered	160.5			1 met · UAB 0 · ARST 1
Final	San Francisco	76	vs Loyola Chicago	66	SF Solid 62% ✓	SF -3.5			SF won by 10 · covered	136.5	UNDER 136.5 · 51.8% (142) ✗		3 met · LUC 3 · SF 0
Final	UC San Diego	80	@ Idaho	56	UCSD Solid 75% ✓	UCSD -7.5			UCSD won by 24 · covered	140.5			1 met · IDHO 1 · UCSD 0
Final	Montana St	63	@ USC	89	USC Solid 81% ✓	USC -9.5			USC won by 26 · covered	143.5			Never met
Final	La Sierra	47	@ Bakersfield	96	CSUB Banker 95% ✓								1 met · CSUB 1 · LSIU 0