Thursday, November 28, 2024 21 games
Today: winner picks 11 of 16 right · total picks 13 of 21 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 38,000 past games it was right about 50% of the time. Not betting advice.
| Time / Status | Away | Home | Pick | Line | Prediction | Line pick | Result | O/U | Total pick | Model total | Prev. meetings | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final |  Minnesota
|
66 | vs  Wichita St
|
68 | WICH -1.5 | WICH won by 2 · covered | 138.5 | UNDER 138.5 · 51.8% (134) ✓ | Never met | ||||
| Final |  West Virginia
|
70 | vs  Louisville
|
79 | LOU Solid 62% ✓ | LOU -3.5 | LOU won by 9 · covered | 150.5 | UNDER 150.5 · 51.8% (149) ✓ | 10 met · LOU 7 · WVU 3 | |||
| Final |  UT Arlington
|
78 | vs  Rhode Island
|
83 | URI Solid 75% ✓ | URI -7.5 | URI won by 5 · not covered | 159.5 | UNDER 159.5 · 51.8% (161) ✗ | Never met | |||
| Final |  18Florida
|
75 | vs  Wake Forest
|
58 | FLA Solid 75% ✓ | FLA -7.5 | FLA won by 17 · covered | 153.5 | UNDER 153.5 · 51.8% (133) ✓ | 3 met · WAKE 1 · FLA 2 | |||
| Final |  3Gonzaga
|
89 | vs  14Indiana
|
73 | GONZ Solid 81% ✓ | GONZ -9.5 | GONZ won by 16 · covered | 157.5 | UNDER 157.5 · 51.8% (162) ✗ | 4 met · IU 2 · GONZ 2 | |||
| Final |  NC State
|
61 | vs  13Purdue
|
71 | PUR Solid 69% ✓ | PUR -5.5 | PUR won by 10 · covered | 147.5 | UNDER 147.5 · 51.8% (132) ✓ | 4 met · PUR 3 · NCSU 1 | |||
| Final |  Utah Valley
|
63 | vs  N Dakota St
|
83 | UVU Solid 72% ✗ | UVU -6.5 | UVU lost by 20 · not covered | 141.5 | UNDER 141.5 · 51.8% (146) ✗ | 9 met · NDSU 5 · UVU 4 | |||
| Final |  Santa Clara
|
69 | vs  TCU
|
52 | TCU Solid 66% ✗ | TCU -4.5 | TCU lost by 17 · not covered | 148.5 | UNDER 148.5 · 51.8% (121) ✓ | 1 met · TCU 0 · SCU 1 | |||
| Final |  Illinois
|
90 | vs  19Arkansas
|
77 | ILL Solid 62% ✓ | ILL -3.5 | ILL won by 13 · covered | 156.5 | UNDER 156.5 · 51.8% (167) ✗ | 4 met · ARK 1 · ILL 3 | |||
| Final |  24Arizona
|
77 | vs  Oklahoma
|
82 | ARIZ Solid 75% ✗ | ARIZ -7.5 | ARIZ lost by 5 · not covered | 154.5 | UNDER 154.5 · 51.8% (159) ✗ | 2 met · OU 1 · ARIZ 1 | |||
| Final |  BYU
|
85 | vs  23Ole Miss
|
96 | BYU -2.5 | BYU lost by 11 · not covered | 153.5 | UNDER 153.5 · 51.8% (181) ✗ | 1 met · MISS 1 · BYU 0 | ||||
| Final |  Utah State
|
72 | vs  St Bonaventure
|
67 | USU Solid 72% ✓ | USU -6.5 | USU won by 5 · not covered | 148.5 | UNDER 148.5 · 51.8% (139) ✓ | Never met | |||
| Final |  Washington
|
73 | vs  Colorado St
|
67 | WASH -1.5 | WASH won by 6 · covered | 142.5 | UNDER 142.5 · 51.8% (140) ✓ | 2 met · CSU 2 · WASH 0 | ||||
| Final |  Northwestern
|
69 | vs  Butler
|
71 | NU -2.5 | NU lost by 2 · not covered | 135.5 | UNDER 135.5 · 51.8% (140) ✗ | 5 met · BTLR 5 · NU 0 | ||||
| Final |  Kennesaw St
|
59 | vs  UC Irvine
|
76 | UCI Solid 81% ✓ | UCI -9.5 | UCI won by 17 · covered | 154.5 | UNDER 154.5 · 51.8% (135) ✓ | Never met | |||
| Final |  Davidson
|
69 | vs  Providence
|
58 | PROV Solid 69% ✗ | PROV -5.5 | PROV lost by 11 · not covered | 136.5 | UNDER 136.5 · 51.8% (127) ✓ | 1 met · PROV 1 · DAV 0 | |||
| Final |  Northern Iowa
|
48 | vs  North Texas
|
68 | UNT Solid 62% ✓ | UNT -3.5 | UNT won by 20 · covered | 126.5 | UNDER 126.5 · 51.8% (116) ✓ | 2 met · UNT 1 · UNI 1 | |||
| Final |  Saint Mary's
|
71 | vs  USC
|
36 | SMC Solid 69% ✓ | SMC -5.5 | SMC won by 35 · covered | 140.5 | UNDER 140.5 · 51.8% (107) ✓ | 3 met · USC 3 · SMC 0 | |||
| Final |  25Mississippi St
|
80 | vs  UNLV
|
58 | MSST Solid 81% ✓ | MSST -9.5 | MSST won by 22 · covered | 146.5 | UNDER 146.5 · 51.8% (138) ✓ | 1 met · UNLV 1 · MSST 0 | |||
| Final |  Kent State
|
65 | vs  Towson
|
54 | KENT -1.5 | KENT won by 11 · covered | 131.5 | UNDER 131.5 · 51.8% (119) ✓ | 2 met · TOW 1 · KENT 1 | ||||
| Final |  Arizona St
|
85 | vs  New Mexico
|
82 | UNM Solid 66% ✗ | UNM -4.5 | UNM lost by 3 · not covered | 158.5 | UNDER 158.5 · 51.8% (167) ✗ | 2 met · UNM 2 · ASU 0 |