Wednesday, November 27, 2024 70 games

Today: winner picks 44 of 54 right · line picks 5 of 7 right · total picks 18 of 41 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 38,000 past games it was right about 50% of the time. Not betting advice.

Time / Status	Away		Home		Pick	Line	Prediction	Line pick	Result	O/U	Total pick	Model total	Prev. meetings
Final	Louisville	89	vs 14Indiana	61	IU Solid 62% ✗	IU -3.5			IU lost by 28 · not covered	154.5	UNDER 154.5 · 51.8% (150) ✓		6 met · IU 2 · LOU 4
Final	Morgan St	69	@ UMBC	92	UMBC Solid 75% ✓	UMBC -7.5			UMBC won by 23 · covered	159.5			8 met · UMBC 3 · MORG 5
Final	Rhode Island	81	vs Detroit Mercy	75	URI Banker 95% ✓	URI -18.5			URI won by 6 · not covered	146.5	UNDER 146.5 · 51.8% (156) ✗		2 met · DETM 1 · URI 1
Final	E Kentucky	69	vs Louisiana Tech	78	LT Solid 75% ✓	LT -7.5			LT won by 9 · covered	141.5	UNDER 141.5 · 51.8% (147) ✗		Never met
Final	SE Louisiana	76	vs North Dakota	60		UND -0.5			UND lost by 16 · not covered	140.5	UNDER 140.5 · 51.8% (136) ✓		Never met
Final	UTSA	76	vs Merrimack	74		UTSA -0.5			UTSA won by 2 · covered	140.5	UNDER 140.5 · 51.8% (150) ✗		Never met
Final	N Kentucky	64	@ Charleston	79	COFC Solid 72% ✓	COFC -6.5			COFC won by 15 · covered	140.5			Never met
Final	Dalton St	69	@ North Alabama	100									Never met
Final	Presbyterian	75	@ Tennessee Tech	90		PRES -2.5			PRES lost by 15 · not covered	135.5			2 met · TNTC 1 · PRES 1
Final	ETSU	75	@ Charlotte	55		CLT -2.5			CLT lost by 20 · not covered	140.5			2 met · CLT 1 · ETSU 1
Final	LSU N Orleans	60	@ 17Baylor	91	BAY Banker 98% ✓	BAY -38.5			BAY won by 31 · not covered	149.5	OVER 149.5 · 52.3% (151) ✓		1 met · BAY 1 · NOLA 0
Final	W Michigan	73	@ Youngstown St	62	YSU Solid 81% ✗	YSU -9.5			YSU lost by 11 · not covered	143.5			3 met · YSU 1 · WMU 2
Final	Stony Brook	54	@ Brown	77	BRWN Solid 81% ✓	BRWN -9.5			BRWN won by 23 · covered	143.5			7 met · BRWN 3 · STBK 4
Final	Bryant	76	@ Chattanooga	84	UTC Solid 69% ✓	UTC -5.5			UTC won by 8 · covered	160.5			Never met
Final	TAMU-Kingsvlle	72	@ Texas Southern	80									Never met
Final	3Gonzaga	78	vs West Virginia	86	GONZ Banker 92% ✗	GONZ -15.5		WVU +15.5 · covers 53% ✓	GONZ lost by 8 · not covered	155.5	UNDER 155.5 · 51.8% (164) ✗		5 met · WVU 0 · GONZ 5
Final	Colorado	71	vs 5Iowa State	99	ISU Banker 89% ✓	ISU -13.5		COLO +13.5 · covers 53% ✗	ISU won by 28 · covered	144.5	UNDER 144.5 · 51.8% (170) ✗		20 met · ISU 10 · COLO 10
Final	Tulsa	71	vs Georgia St	74	TLSA Solid 66% ✗	TLSA -4.5			TLSA lost by 3 · not covered	146.5	UNDER 146.5 · 51.8% (145) ✓		1 met · GAST 1 · TLSA 0
Final	Gardner-Webb	79	vs Bethune	64	GWEB Solid 62% ✓	GWEB -3.5			GWEB won by 15 · covered	143.5	UNDER 143.5 · 51.8% (143) ✓		Never met
Final	S Illinois	81	vs Florida Tech	54									Never met
Final	Canisius	64	@ Robert Morris	72	RMU Banker 89% ✓	RMU -13.5		CAN +13.5 · covers 53% ✓	RMU won by 8 · not covered	141.5			5 met · RMU 2 · CAN 3
Final	UT Martin	35	@ 7Tennessee	78	TENN Banker 98% ✓	TENN -37.5			TENN won by 43 · covered	144.5	OVER 144.5 · 52.3% (113) ✗		4 met · TENN 4 · UTM 0
Final	UMass	62	@ Harvard	54		MASS -2.5			MASS won by 8 · covered	148.5			10 met · HARV 5 · MASS 5
Final	San Diego St	68	vs Oregon	78	ORE Solid 62% ✓	ORE -3.5			ORE won by 10 · covered	138.5	UNDER 138.5 · 51.8% (146) ✗		Never met
Final	Sacramento St	63	@ Air Force	61	AF Solid 72% ✗	AF -6.5			AF lost by 2 · not covered	129.5			Never met
Final	N Illinois	82	@ Valparaiso	87	VAL Solid 78% ✓	VAL -8.5			VAL won by 5 · not covered	142.5			3 met · VAL 3 · NIU 0
Final	Nazareth	63	@ Princeton	99									Never met
Final	Sam Houston	63	vs App State	66	SHSU Solid 72% ✗	SHSU -6.5			SHSU lost by 3 · not covered	142.5	UNDER 142.5 · 51.8% (129) ✓		Never met
Final	West Georgia	61	vs N Dakota St	73	NDSU Solid 78% ✓	NDSU -8.5			NDSU won by 12 · covered	138.5	UNDER 138.5 · 51.8% (134) ✓		Never met
Final	NJIT	78	vs Morehead St	69	MORE Solid 75% ✗	MORE -7.5			MORE lost by 9 · not covered	130.5	UNDER 130.5 · 51.8% (147) ✗		Never met
Final	Bucknell	67	@ Maryland	91	MD Banker 98% ✓	MD -25.5			MD won by 24 · not covered	140.5	OVER 140.5 · 52.3% (158) ✓		2 met · MD 2 · BUCK 0
Final	Memphis	76	vs 4Auburn	90	AUB Solid 78% ✓	AUB -8.5			AUB won by 14 · covered	156.5	UNDER 156.5 · 51.8% (166) ✗		2 met · AUB 1 · MEM 1
Final	UT Arlington	68	vs Austin Peay	58	UTA Solid 66% ✓	UTA -4.5			UTA won by 10 · covered	144.5	UNDER 144.5 · 51.8% (126) ✓		Never met
Final	Providence	77	vs Oklahoma	79	OU Solid 62% ✓	OU -3.5			OU won by 2 · not covered	136.5	UNDER 136.5 · 51.8% (156) ✗		1 met · OU 1 · PROV 0
Final	Incarnate Word	86	vs W Illinois	75		UIW -1.5			UIW won by 11 · covered	137.5	UNDER 137.5 · 51.8% (161) ✗		Never met
Final	Tulane	66	vs Belmont	89		TULN -1.5			TULN lost by 23 · not covered	153.5	UNDER 153.5 · 51.8% (155) ✗		Never met
Final	South Carolina	70	vs Virginia Tech	60	SC Solid 72% ✓	SC -6.5			SC won by 10 · covered	139.5	UNDER 139.5 · 51.8% (130) ✓		1 met · VT 0 · SC 1
Final	Ball State	60	vs Richmond	73	RICH Solid 62% ✓	RICH -3.5			RICH won by 13 · covered	133.5	UNDER 133.5 · 51.8% (133) ✓		Never met
Final	South Dakota	79	@ Nebraska	96	NEB Banker 98% ✓	NEB -22.5			NEB won by 17 · not covered	157.5	OVER 157.5 · 52.3% (175) ✓		5 met · NEB 5 · SDAK 0
Final	Lindenwood	61	@ Missouri	81	MIZ Banker 98% ✓	MIZ -29.5			MIZ won by 20 · not covered	148.5	OVER 148.5 · 52.3% (142) ✗		1 met · MIZ 1 · LIN 0
Final	21Creighton	73	vs 20Texas A&M	77	TA&M Solid 62% ✓	TA&M -3.5			TA&M won by 4 · covered	145.5	UNDER 145.5 · 51.8% (150) ✗		Never met
Final	Averett	56	@ Winthrop	99									Never met
Final	Rider	48	@ Villanova	72	VILL Banker 95% ✓	VILL -18.5			VILL won by 24 · covered	137.5			3 met · VILL 3 · RID 0
Final	Cornell	72	@ Syracuse	82	SYR Solid 81% ✓	SYR -9.5			SYR won by 10 · covered	164.5			17 met · SYR 17 · COR 0
Final	Alabama St	59	@ 16Cincinnati	77	CIN Banker 98% ✓	CIN -28.5			CIN won by 18 · not covered	145.5	OVER 145.5 · 52.3% (136) ✗		2 met · CIN 2 · ALST 0
Final	Milwaukee	76	@ UCF	84	UCF Banker 87% ✓	UCF -12.5		MILW +12.5 · covers 53% ✓	UCF won by 8 · not covered	154.5			Never met
Final	Colgate	72	@ UNC Wilmington	59	UNCW Solid 75% ✗	UNCW -7.5			UNCW lost by 13 · not covered	145.5			Never met
Final	Plattsburgh	55	@ Vermont	78	UVM Banker 95% ✓								1 met · UVM 1 · PLAT 0
Final	SC State	53	@ Marshall	82	MRSH Solid 83% ✓	MRSH -10.5			MRSH won by 29 · covered	147.5			2 met · MRSH 1 · SCST 1
Final	Charleston So	67	@ Georgia Tech	91	GT Banker 97% ✓	GT -20.5			GT won by 24 · covered	151.5	OVER 151.5 · 52.3% (158) ✓		3 met · GT 3 · CHSO 0
Final	Utah Valley	76	@ Samford	84	SAM Solid 66% ✓	SAM -4.5			SAM won by 8 · covered	157.5			Never met
Final	UTEP	64	vs UNC Greensboro	58		UNCG -1.5			UNCG lost by 6 · not covered	137.5	UNDER 137.5 · 51.8% (122) ✓		Never met
Final	N Arizona	74	@ Hou Christian	71	NAU Solid 62% ✓	NAU -3.5			NAU won by 3 · not covered	136.5			Never met
Final	UMass Lowell	90	@ Saint Louis	93	SLU Solid 83% ✓	SLU -10.5			SLU won by 3 · not covered	162.5			Never met
Final	MD Eastern	59	@ Little Rock	78	LR Banker 95% ✓	LR -18.5			LR won by 19 · covered	143.5			Never met
Final	24Arizona	104	vs Davidson	71	ARIZ Banker 92% ✓	ARIZ -15.5		DAV +15.5 · covers 53% ✗	ARIZ won by 33 · covered	152.5	UNDER 152.5 · 51.8% (175) ✗		1 met · DAV 0 · ARIZ 1
Final	Wyoming	70	vs LMU	73	LMU Solid 62% ✓	LMU -3.5			LMU won by 3 · not covered	140.5	UNDER 140.5 · 51.8% (143) ✗		3 met · LMU 0 · WYO 3
Final	22Xavier	53	vs Michigan	78		MICH -1.5			MICH won by 25 · covered	153.5	UNDER 153.5 · 51.8% (131) ✓		1 met · MICH 0 · XAV 1
Final	Stonehill	59	@ 10Marquette	94	MARQ Banker 98% ✓	MARQ -34.5			MARQ won by 35 · covered	142.5	OVER 142.5 · 52.3% (153) ✓		Never met
Final	CSU Northridge	75	@ Montana	83		MONT -0.5			MONT won by 8 · covered	153.5			3 met · MONT 2 · CSUN 1
Final	Michigan St	94	vs 12North Carolina	91	UNC Solid 66% ✗	UNC -4.5			UNC lost by 3 · not covered	158.5	UNDER 158.5 · 51.8% (185) ✗		9 met · UNC 8 · MSU 1
Final	SMU	77	vs Washington St	60	SMU Solid 62% ✓	SMU -3.5			SMU won by 17 · covered	160.5	UNDER 160.5 · 51.8% (137) ✓		1 met · WSU 1 · SMU 0
Final	Mercyhurst	55	@ California	81	CAL Banker 98% ✓	CAL -22.5			CAL won by 26 · covered	140.5	OVER 140.5 · 52.3% (136) ✗		Never met
Final	San José St	82	vs Long Beach St	66	SJSU Solid 75% ✓	SJSU -7.5			SJSU won by 16 · covered	125.5	UNDER 125.5 · 51.8% (148) ✗		3 met · LBSU 2 · SJSU 1
Final	9Alabama	95	vs Rutgers	90	ALA Solid 85% ✓	ALA -11.5			ALA won by 5 · not covered	162.5	UNDER 162.5 · 51.8% (185) ✗		Never met
Final	AR-Pine Bluff	71	@ Pacific	83	PAC Banker 94% ✓	PAC -17.5		UAPB +17.5 · covers 53% ✓	PAC won by 12 · not covered	158.5			2 met · PAC 2 · UAPB 0
Final	Marian (WI)	64	@ San Diego	69									Never met
Final	2UConn	67	vs Dayton	85	CONN Solid 75% ✗	CONN -7.5			CONN lost by 18 · not covered	147.5	UNDER 147.5 · 51.8% (152) ✗		1 met · DAY 0 · CONN 1
Final	CA Baptist	86	vs Fresno St	81	CBU Solid 72% ✓	CBU -6.5			CBU won by 5 · not covered	152.5	UNDER 152.5 · 51.8% (167) ✗		Never met
Final	6Houston	65	vs Notre Dame	54	HOU Banker 93% ✓	HOU -16.5		ND +16.5 · covers 53% ✓	HOU won by 11 · not covered	134.5	UNDER 134.5 · 51.8% (119) ✓		Never met