Thursday, November 21, 2024 44 games

Today: winner picks 25 of 34 right · line picks 4 of 8 right · total picks 8 of 23 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.

Time / Status	Away		Home		Pick	Line	Prediction	Line pick	Result	O/U	Total pick	Model total	Prev. meetings
Final	James Madison	99	vs UIC	81	JMU Solid 62% ✓	JMU -3.5			JMU won by 18 · covered	145.5	UNDER 145.5 · 51.8% (180) ✗		Never met
Final	Miami	69	vs Drake	80	MIA Solid 81% ✗	MIA -9.5			MIA lost by 11 · not covered	143.5	UNDER 143.5 · 51.8% (149) ✗		1 met · DRKE 0 · MIA 1
Final	Ohio	81	vs MTSU	83		OHIO -1.5			OHIO lost by 2 · not covered	146.5	UNDER 146.5 · 51.8% (164) ✗		3 met · MTSU 0 · OHIO 3
Final	La Salle	67	vs UC San Diego	72		LAS -1.5			LAS lost by 5 · not covered	144.5	UNDER 144.5 · 51.8% (139) ✓		Never met
Final	Oklahoma St	78	vs FAU	86		FAU -2.5			FAU won by 8 · covered	162.5	UNDER 162.5 · 51.8% (164) ✗		1 met · FAU 0 · OKST 1
Final	South Florida	74	vs Portland	68	USF Solid 72% ✓	USF -6.5			USF won by 6 · not covered	146.5	UNDER 146.5 · 51.8% (142) ✓		Never met
Final	East Carolina	78	vs Jax State	86	ECU Solid 66% ✗	ECU -4.5			ECU lost by 8 · not covered	134.5	UNDER 134.5 · 51.8% (164) ✗		Never met
Final	Youngstown St	72	vs Monmouth	62	YSU Solid 66% ✓	YSU -4.5			YSU won by 10 · covered	146.5	UNDER 146.5 · 51.8% (134) ✓		Never met
Final	Seton Hall	69	vs VCU	66	VCU Solid 72% ✗	VCU -6.5			VCU lost by 3 · not covered	126.5	UNDER 126.5 · 51.8% (135) ✗		2 met · VCU 0 · HALL 2
Final	Bradley	82	vs Texas St	68	BRAD Solid 75% ✓	BRAD -7.5			BRAD won by 14 · covered	135.5	UNDER 135.5 · 51.8% (150) ✗		Never met
Final	Robert Morris	86	@ Cornell	76	COR Solid 81% ✗	COR -9.5			COR lost by 10 · not covered	151.5			2 met · COR 1 · RMU 1
Final	Toledo	103	vs Stetson	78	TOL Banker 89% ✓	TOL -13.5		STET +13.5 · covers 53% ✗	TOL won by 25 · covered	154.5	UNDER 154.5 · 51.8% (181) ✗		Never met
Final	UNC Greensboro	58	@ 16Indiana	69	IU Banker 94% ✓	IU -17.5		UNCG +17.5 · covers 53% ✓	IU won by 11 · not covered	147.5			2 met · IU 2 · UNCG 0
Final	Radford	51	@ Clemson	79	CLEM Banker 98% ✓	CLEM -22.5			CLEM won by 28 · covered	145.5	OVER 145.5 · 52.3% (130) ✗		3 met · CLEM 3 · RAD 0
Final	Syracuse	66	vs Texas	70	TEX Solid 83% ✓	TEX -10.5			TEX won by 4 · not covered	155.5	UNDER 155.5 · 51.8% (136) ✓		1 met · TEX 0 · SYR 1
Final	Edward Waters	59	@ North Florida	108	UNF Banker 95% ✓								10 met · UNF 10 · EDW 0
Final	Mercer	72	@ South Carolina	84	SC Banker 95% ✓	SC -18.5			SC won by 12 · not covered	150.5			Never met
Final	13Baylor	99	vs 22St John's	98		BAY -2.5			BAY won by 1 · not covered	150.5	UNDER 150.5 · 51.8% (197) ✗		1 met · SJU 0 · BAY 1
Final	E Michigan	68	@ Oakland	64	OAK Solid 75% ✗	OAK -7.5			OAK lost by 4 · not covered	134.5			12 met · OAK 8 · EMU 4
Final	Niagara	73	@ Kent State	76	KENT Banker 89% ✓	KENT -13.5		NIA +13.5 · covers 53% ✓	KENT won by 3 · not covered	137.5			2 met · KENT 2 · NIA 0
Final	NJIT	64	@ Bucknell	81	BUCK Banker 87% ✓	BUCK -12.5		NJIT +12.5 · covers 53% ✗	BUCK won by 17 · covered	135.5			1 met · BUCK 1 · NJIT 0
Final	Bryant	66	@ Stonehill	67	BRY Banker 87% ✗	BRY -12.5		STO +12.5 · covers 53% ✓	BRY lost by 1 · not covered	152.5			Never met
Final	Johnson Univ	52	@ Chattanooga	72	UTC Banker 95% ✓								1 met · UTC 1 · JSU 0
Final	SE Missouri	77	@ C Arkansas	73		CARK -1.5			CARK lost by 4 · not covered	149.5			5 met · CARK 2 · SEMO 3
Final	Trinity (TX)	78	@ Sam Houston	105									Never met
Final	Presbyterian	58	@ SF Austin	55	SFA Solid 75% ✗	SFA -7.5			SFA lost by 3 · not covered	134.5			Never met
Final	Oral Roberts	68	@ Ole Miss	100	MISS Banker 97% ✓	MISS -21.5			MISS won by 32 · covered	150.5	OVER 150.5 · 52.3% (168) ✓		1 met · MISS 1 · ORU 0
Final	Princeton	62	vs Wright St	80	PRIN Solid 75% ✗	PRIN -7.5			PRIN lost by 18 · not covered	153.5	UNDER 153.5 · 51.8% (142) ✓		Never met
Final	UT Martin	77	@ Texas A&M-CC	81	AMCC Solid 85% ✓	AMCC -11.5			AMCC won by 4 · not covered	155.5			Never met
Final	C Connecticut	54	@ Sacred Heart	67		CCSU -2.5			CCSU lost by 13 · not covered	141.5			48 met · SHU 25 · CCSU 23
Final	Lindenwood	64	@ Valparaiso	77	VAL Solid 81% ✓	VAL -9.5			VAL won by 13 · covered	144.5			Never met
Final	Minn Crook	60	@ N Dakota St	67	NDSU Banker 95% ✓								1 met · NDSU 1 · MNCR 0
Final	East Texas A&M	56	@ Oklahoma	84	OU Banker 98% ✓	OU -24.5			OU won by 28 · covered	144.5	OVER 144.5 · 52.3% (140) ✗		Never met
Final	Monmouth (IL)	46	@ W Illinois	73									Never met
Final	Texas Wesleyan	66	@ North Texas	73	UNT Banker 95% ✓								1 met · UNT 1 · TWES 0
Final	Vanderbilt	73	vs Nevada	71		NEV -2.5			NEV lost by 2 · not covered	150.5	UNDER 150.5 · 51.8% (144) ✓		Never met
Final	Tarleton St	49	@ Michigan	72	MICH Banker 98% ✓	MICH -31.5			MICH won by 23 · not covered	147.5	OVER 147.5 · 52.3% (121) ✗		1 met · MICH 1 · TAR 0
Final	Grambling	58	@ New Mexico	80	UNM Banker 98% ✓	UNM -23.5			UNM won by 22 · not covered	152.5	OVER 152.5 · 52.3% (138) ✗		2 met · UNM 2 · GRAM 0
Final	E Washington	81	vs Washington St	96	WSU Banker 89% ✓	WSU -13.5		EWU +13.5 · covers 53% ✗	WSU won by 15 · covered	157.5	UNDER 157.5 · 51.8% (177) ✗		9 met · WSU 6 · EWU 3
Final	Texas Tech	77	vs Saint Joseph's	78	TTU Solid 83% ✗	TTU -10.5			TTU lost by 1 · not covered	149.5	UNDER 149.5 · 51.8% (155) ✗		1 met · JOES 1 · TTU 0
Final	Air Force	69	@ California	78	CAL Banker 92% ✓	CAL -15.5		AF +15.5 · covers 53% ✓	CAL won by 9 · not covered	136.5			1 met · CAL 0 · AF 1
Final	Oregon	78	@ Oregon St	75	ORE Solid 72% ✓	ORE -6.5			ORE won by 3 · not covered	139.5			47 met · ORST 15 · ORE 32
Final	Memphis	68	@ San Francisco	64		SF -1.5			SF lost by 4 · not covered	153.5			Never met
Final	Virginia	42	vs 11Tennessee	64	TENN Banker 87% ✓	TENN -12.5		UVA +12.5 · covers 53% ✗	TENN won by 22 · covered	126.5	UNDER 126.5 · 51.8% (106) ✓		3 met · TENN 2 · UVA 1