Thursday, November 14, 2024 26 games

Today: winner picks 15 of 23 right · line picks 1 of 2 right · total picks 2 of 4 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.

Time / Status	Away		Home		Pick	Line	Prediction	Line pick	Result	O/U	Total pick	Model total	Prev. meetings
Final	Utah Valley	71	@ North Dakota	77	UVU Solid 69% ✗	UVU -5.5			UVU lost by 6 · not covered	144.5			8 met · UND 3 · UVU 5
Final	Lindenwood	74	vs LSU N Orleans	82		NOLA -2.5			NOLA won by 8 · covered	147.5	UNDER 147.5 · 51.8% (156) ✗		Never met
Final	E Michigan	74	@ IU Indy	71	IUIN Solid 62% ✗	IUIN -3.5			IUIN lost by 3 · not covered	136.5			2 met · IUIN 1 · EMU 1
Final	Nicholls	61	@ N Kentucky	59	NKU Solid 72% ✗	NKU -6.5			NKU lost by 2 · not covered	141.5			Never met
Final	Bryant	87	@ Buffalo	64	BRY Solid 72% ✓	BRY -6.5			BRY won by 23 · covered	163.5			Never met
Final	SC State	62	@ Jacksonville	71	JAX Solid 72% ✓	JAX -6.5			JAX won by 9 · covered	145.5			12 met · JAX 7 · SCST 5
Final	Stonehill	51	@ Robert Morris	63	RMU Solid 78% ✓	RMU -8.5			RMU won by 12 · covered	143.5			Never met
Final	Coppin St	67	@ UMBC	92	UMBC Banker 87% ✓	UMBC -12.5		COPP +12.5 · covers 53% ✗	UMBC won by 25 · covered	145.5			10 met · UMBC 5 · COPP 5
Final	Dkta Wesleyan	69	@ South Dakota	92									Never met
Final	FL National	55	@ FIU	110	FIU Banker 95% ✓								2 met · FIU 2 · FNU 0
Final	N Greenville	54	@ The Citadel	79	CIT Banker 95% ✓								2 met · CIT 2 · NGU 0
Final	Miss Valley St	39	@ Missouri	111	MIZ Banker 98% ✓	MIZ -32.5			MIZ won by 72 · covered	140.5	OVER 140.5 · 52.3% (150) ✓		1 met · MIZ 1 · MVSU 0
Final	Northern Iowa	73	@ Wichita St	79	WICH Solid 75% ✓	WICH -7.5			WICH won by 6 · not covered	150.5			33 met · WICH 16 · UNI 17
Final	Ecclesia	48	@ UL Monroe	110	ULM Banker 95% ✓								1 met · ULM 1 · ECCL 0
Final	S Illinois	78	@ Oklahoma St	85	OKST Solid 85% ✓	OKST -11.5			OKST won by 7 · not covered	161.5			4 met · OKST 1 · SIU 3
Final	Morehead St	62	@ Chattanooga	76	UTC Solid 85% ✓	UTC -11.5			UTC won by 14 · covered	142.5			2 met · UTC 0 · MORE 2
Final	Tabor	57	@ Tarleton St	88									Never met
Final	LSU	76	@ Kansas St	65	KSU Solid 78% ✗	KSU -8.5			KSU lost by 11 · not covered	148.5			2 met · KSU 2 · LSU 0
Final	Grand Canyon	76	vs Arizona St	87	GCU Solid 69% ✗	GCU -5.5			GCU lost by 11 · not covered	147.5	UNDER 147.5 · 51.8% (163) ✗		2 met · ASU 2 · GCU 0
Final	N Colorado	78	vs S Dakota St	69	SDST Solid 62% ✗	SDST -3.5			SDST lost by 9 · not covered	152.5	UNDER 152.5 · 51.8% (147) ✓		1 met · SDST 1 · UNCO 0
Final	CO Christian	63	@ Denver	86	DEN Banker 95% ✓								2 met · DEN 2 · COCU 0
Final	Texas A&M-CC	82	@ New Mexico St	83	NMSU Solid 66% ✓	NMSU -4.5			NMSU won by 1 · not covered	147.5			Never met
Final	N Arizona	60	@ Pacific	57	PAC Solid 69% ✗	PAC -5.5			PAC lost by 3 · not covered	153.5			2 met · PAC 0 · NAU 2
Final	Omaha	69	@ UNLV	80	UNLV Banker 93% ✓	UNLV -16.5		OMA +16.5 · covers 53% ✓	UNLV won by 11 · not covered	146.5			2 met · UNLV 2 · OMA 0
Final	Seattle U	71	@ Cal Poly	75	SEA Solid 66% ✗	SEA -4.5			SEA lost by 4 · not covered	152.5			3 met · CP 2 · SEA 1
Final	La Sierra	51	@ UC Riverside	79	UCR Banker 95% ✓								2 met · UCR 2 · LSIU 0