Friday, March 29, 2024 4 games
Today: winner picks 2 of 4 right · total picks 3 of 4 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.
| Time / Status | Away | Home | Pick | Line | Prediction | Line pick | Result | O/U | Total pick | Model total | Prev. meetings | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final |  11NC State
|
67 | vs  2Marquette
|
58 | MARQ Solid 75% ✗ | MARQ -7.5 | MARQ lost by 9 · not covered | 151.5 | UNDER 151.5 · 51.8% (125) ✓ | 2 met · MARQ 1 · NCSU 1 | |||
| Final |  5Gonzaga
|
68 | vs  1Purdue
|
80 | PUR Solid 66% ✓ | PUR -4.5 | PUR won by 12 · covered | 155.5 | UNDER 155.5 · 51.8% (148) ✓ | 2 met · PUR 2 · GONZ 0 | |||
| Final |  4Duke
|
54 | vs  1Houston
|
51 | HOU Solid 66% ✗ | HOU -4.5 | HOU lost by 3 · not covered | 133.5 | UNDER 133.5 · 51.8% (105) ✓ | Never met | |||
| Final |  3Creighton
|
75 | vs  2Tennessee
|
82 | TENN Solid 62% ✓ | TENN -3.5 | TENN won by 7 · covered | 146.5 | UNDER 146.5 · 51.8% (157) ✗ | Never met |