Thursday, March 28, 2024 4 games
Today: winner picks 1 of 3 right · total picks 3 of 4 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.
| Time / Status | Away | Home | Pick | Line | Prediction | Line pick | Result | O/U | Total pick | Model total | Prev. meetings | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final |  6Clemson
|
77 | vs  2Arizona
|
72 | ARIZ Solid 72% ✗ | ARIZ -6.5 | ARIZ lost by 5 · not covered | 153.5 | UNDER 153.5 · 51.8% (149) ✓ | 2 met · ARIZ 2 · CLEM 0 | |||
| Final |  5San Diego St
|
52 | vs  1UConn
|
82 | CONN Solid 85% ✓ | CONN -11.5 | CONN won by 30 · covered | 137.5 | UNDER 137.5 · 51.8% (134) ✓ | 2 met · CONN 2 · SDSU 0 | |||
| Final |  4Alabama
|
89 | vs  1North Carolina
|
87 | UNC Solid 66% ✗ | UNC -4.5 | UNC lost by 2 · not covered | 174.5 | UNDER 174.5 · 51.8% (176) ✗ | 2 met · UNC 1 · ALA 1 | |||
| Final |  3Illinois
|
72 | vs  2Iowa State
|
69 | ISU -1.5 | ISU lost by 3 · not covered | 146.5 | UNDER 146.5 · 51.8% (141) ✓ | 2 met · ISU 2 · ILL 0 |