Wednesday, March 27, 2024 4 games
Today: winner picks 2 of 2 right · total picks 1 of 1 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.
| Time / Status | Away | Home | Pick | Line | Prediction | Line pick | Result | O/U | Total pick | Model total | Prev. meetings | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final |  High Point
|
67 | vs  Seattle U
|
77 | SEA -1.5 | SEA won by 10 · covered | 150.5 | UNDER 150.5 · 51.8% (144) ✓ | Never met | ||||
| Final |  UNLV
|
68 | @  Seton Hall
|
91 | HALL Solid 69% ✓ | HALL -5.5 | HALL won by 23 · covered | 143.5 | Never met | ||||
| Final |  Purdue FW
|
67 | @  Norfolk St
|
75 | PFW -2.5 | PFW lost by 8 · not covered | 145.5 | Never met | |||||
| Final |  VCU
|
54 | @  Utah
|
74 | UTAH Solid 78% ✓ | UTAH -8.5 | UTAH won by 20 · covered | 144.5 | Never met |