Monday, March 25, 2024 5 games
Today: winner picks 4 of 5 right · total picks 2 of 4 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.
| Time / Status | Away | Home | Pick | Line | Prediction | Line pick | Result | O/U | Total pick | Model total | Prev. meetings | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final |  High Point
|
93 | vs  Cleveland St
|
74 | HPU Solid 66% ✓ | HPU -4.5 | HPU won by 19 · covered | 153.5 | UNDER 153.5 · 51.8% (167) ✗ | Never met | |||
| Final |  Arkansas St
|
74 | vs  Montana
|
61 | ARST Solid 62% ✓ | ARST -3.5 | ARST won by 13 · covered | 155.5 | UNDER 155.5 · 51.8% (135) ✓ | Never met | |||
| Final |  Fairfield
|
77 | vs  Chicago St
|
74 | FAIR Solid 66% ✓ | FAIR -4.5 | FAIR won by 3 · not covered | 144.5 | UNDER 144.5 · 51.8% (151) ✗ | Never met | |||
| Final |  Seattle U
|
71 | vs  Evansville
|
57 | SEA Solid 78% ✓ | SEA -8.5 | SEA won by 14 · covered | 142.5 | UNDER 142.5 · 51.8% (128) ✓ | Never met | |||
| Final |  Purdue FW
|
73 | @  Tarleton St
|
72 | TAR Solid 69% ✗ | TAR -5.5 | TAR lost by 1 · not covered | 150.5 | Never met |