Friday, March 22, 2024 16 games

Today: winner picks 8 of 13 right · line picks 1 of 4 right · total picks 6 of 13 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.

Time / Status	Away		Home		Pick	Line	Prediction	Line pick	Result	O/U	Total pick	Model total	Prev. meetings
Final	9Northwestern	77	vs 8FAU	65	FAU Solid 62% ✗	FAU -3.5			FAU lost by 12 · not covered	142.5	UNDER 142.5 · 51.8% (142) ✓		1 met · FAU 0 · NU 1
Final	14Colgate	67	vs 3Baylor	92	BAY Banker 91% ✓	BAY -14.5		COLG +14.5 · covers 53% ✗	BAY won by 25 · covered	137.5	UNDER 137.5 · 51.8% (159) ✗		Never met
Final	12UAB	65	vs 5San Diego St	69	SDSU Solid 72% ✓	SDSU -6.5			SDSU won by 4 · not covered	140.5	UNDER 140.5 · 51.8% (134) ✓		Never met
Final	15Western KY	69	vs 2Marquette	87	MARQ Banker 91% ✓	MARQ -14.5		WKU +14.5 · covers 53% ✗	MARQ won by 18 · covered	156.5	UNDER 156.5 · 51.8% (156) ✓		Never met
Final	11New Mexico	56	vs 6Clemson	77		UNM -1.5			UNM lost by 21 · not covered	151.5	UNDER 151.5 · 51.8% (133) ✓		Never met
Final	16Stetson	52	vs 1UConn	91	CONN Banker 98% ✓	CONN -27.5			CONN won by 39 · covered	145.5			Never met
Final	13Yale	78	vs 4Auburn	76	AUB Banker 89% ✗	AUB -13.5		YALE +13.5 · covers 53% ✓	AUB lost by 2 · not covered	140.5	UNDER 140.5 · 51.8% (154) ✗		1 met · AUB 1 · YALE 0
Final	10Colorado	102	vs 7Florida	100		COLO -1.5			COLO won by 2 · covered	157.5	UNDER 157.5 · 51.8% (202) ✗		Never met
Final	9Texas A&M	98	vs 8Nebraska	83		TA&M -1.5			TA&M won by 15 · covered	148.5	UNDER 148.5 · 51.8% (181) ✗		10 met · NEB 4 · TA&M 6
Final	13Vermont	47	vs 4Duke	64	DUKE Banker 87% ✓	DUKE -12.5		UVM +12.5 · covers 53% ✗	DUKE won by 17 · covered	133.5	UNDER 133.5 · 51.8% (111) ✓		1 met · DUKE 1 · UVM 0
Final	16Grambling	50	vs 1Purdue	78	PUR Banker 98% ✓	PUR -26.5			PUR won by 28 · covered	138.5			1 met · PUR 1 · GRAM 0
Final	13Charleston	96	vs 4Alabama	109	ALA Solid 78% ✓	ALA -8.5			ALA won by 13 · covered	172.5	UNDER 172.5 · 51.8% (205) ✗		Never met
Final	16Longwood	46	vs 1Houston	86	HOU Banker 98% ✓	HOU -24.5			HOU won by 40 · covered	129.5			Never met
Final	12James Madison	72	vs 5Wisconsin	61	WIS Solid 66% ✗	WIS -4.5			WIS lost by 11 · not covered	143.5	UNDER 143.5 · 51.8% (133) ✓		Never met
Final	9TCU	72	vs 8Utah State	88	TCU Solid 62% ✗	TCU -3.5			TCU lost by 16 · not covered	149.5	UNDER 149.5 · 51.8% (160) ✗		Never met
Final	12Grand Canyon	75	vs 5Saint Mary's	66	SMC Solid 69% ✗	SMC -5.5			SMC lost by 9 · not covered	131.5	UNDER 131.5 · 51.8% (141) ✗		1 met · SMC 1 · GCU 0