Thursday, March 21, 2024 16 games

Today: winner picks 8 of 11 right · line picks 1 of 3 right · total picks 8 of 14 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.

Time / Status	Away		Home		Pick	Line	Prediction	Line pick	Result	O/U	Total pick	Model total	Prev. meetings
Final	9Michigan St	69	vs 8Mississippi St	51		MSU -1.5			MSU won by 18 · covered	131.5	UNDER 131.5 · 51.8% (120) ✓		Never met
Final	11Duquesne	71	vs 6BYU	67	BYU Solid 81% ✗	BYU -9.5			BYU lost by 4 · not covered	142.5	UNDER 142.5 · 51.8% (138) ✓		Never met
Final	14Akron	60	vs 3Creighton	77	CREI Banker 87% ✓	CREI -12.5		AKR +12.5 · covers 53% ✗	CREI won by 17 · covered	143.5	UNDER 143.5 · 51.8% (137) ✓		4 met · CREI 3 · AKR 1
Final	15Long Beach St	65	vs 2Arizona	85	ARIZ Banker 96% ✓	ARIZ -19.5			ARIZ won by 20 · covered	163.5	UNDER 163.5 · 51.8% (150) ✓		5 met · ARIZ 5 · LBSU 0
Final	16Wagner	62	vs 1North Carolina	90	UNC Banker 98% ✓	UNC -24.5			UNC won by 28 · covered	133.5			Never met
Final	14Morehead St	69	vs 3Illinois	85	ILL Solid 83% ✓	ILL -10.5			ILL won by 16 · covered	145.5	UNDER 145.5 · 51.8% (154) ✗		Never met
Final	11Oregon	87	vs 6South Carolina	73		ORE -2.5			ORE won by 14 · covered	135.5	UNDER 135.5 · 51.8% (160) ✗		Never met
Final	10Nevada	60	vs 7Dayton	63		NEV -1.5			NEV lost by 3 · not covered	136.5	UNDER 136.5 · 51.8% (123) ✓		Never met
Final	10Colorado St	44	vs 7Texas	56		TEX -2.5			TEX won by 12 · covered	143.5	UNDER 143.5 · 51.8% (100) ✓		Never met
Final	14Oakland	80	vs 3Kentucky	76	UK Banker 89% ✗	UK -13.5		OAK +13.5 · covers 53% ✓	UK lost by 4 · not covered	159.5	UNDER 159.5 · 51.8% (156) ✓		Never met
Final	15S Dakota St	65	vs 2Iowa State	82	ISU Banker 92% ✓	ISU -15.5		SDST +15.5 · covers 53% ✗	ISU won by 17 · covered	135.5	UNDER 135.5 · 51.8% (147) ✗		2 met · ISU 0 · SDST 2
Final	12McNeese	65	vs 5Gonzaga	86	GONZ Solid 72% ✓	GONZ -6.5			GONZ won by 21 · covered	148.5	UNDER 148.5 · 51.8% (151) ✗		Never met
Final	15Saint Peter's	49	vs 2Tennessee	83	TENN Banker 97% ✓	TENN -21.5			TENN won by 34 · covered	130.5			Never met
Final	11NC State	80	vs 6Texas Tech	67	TTU Solid 66% ✗	TTU -4.5			TTU lost by 13 · not covered	146.5	UNDER 146.5 · 51.8% (147) ✗		Never met
Final	10Drake	61	vs 7Washington St	66		DRKE -1.5			DRKE lost by 5 · not covered	138.5	UNDER 138.5 · 51.8% (127) ✓		Never met
Final	13Samford	89	vs 4Kansas	93	KU Solid 75% ✓	KU -7.5			KU won by 4 · not covered	152.5	UNDER 152.5 · 51.8% (182) ✗		Never met