Wednesday, March 20, 2024 12 games
Today: winner picks 7 of 11 right · total picks 1 of 2 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.
| Time / Status | Away | Home | Pick | Line | Prediction | Line pick | Result | O/U | Total pick | Model total | Prev. meetings | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final |  16Grambling
|
88 | vs  16Montana St
|
81 | MTST Solid 66% ✗ | MTST -4.5 | MTST lost by 7 · not covered | 133.5 | UNDER 133.5 · 51.8% (169) ✗ | Never met | |||
| Final |  Loyola Chicago
|
62 | @  Bradley
|
74 | BRAD Solid 69% ✓ | BRAD -5.5 | BRAD won by 12 · covered | 141.5 | 32 met · BRAD 12 · LUC 20 | ||||
| Final |  SMU
|
92 | @  Indiana St
|
101 | INST Solid 75% ✓ | INST -7.5 | INST won by 9 · covered | 159.5 | Never met | ||||
| Final |  Saint Joseph's
|
72 | @  Seton Hall
|
75 | HALL Solid 75% ✓ | HALL -7.5 | HALL won by 3 · not covered | 148.5 | 1 met · HALL 1 · JOES 0 | ||||
| Final |  Abilene Chrstn
|
59 | @  Tarleton St
|
86 | TAR Solid 72% ✓ | TAR -6.5 | TAR won by 27 · covered | 145.5 | 7 met · TAR 3 · ACU 4 | ||||
| Final |  Purdue FW
|
77 | @  Bowling Green
|
75 | BGSU -1.5 | BGSU lost by 2 · not covered | 149.5 | 4 met · BGSU 1 · PFW 3 | |||||
| Final |  App State
|
76 | @  Wake Forest
|
87 | WAKE Solid 75% ✓ | WAKE -7.5 | WAKE won by 11 · covered | 147.5 | 3 met · WAKE 3 · APP 0 | ||||
| Final |  UNLV
|
84 | @  Princeton
|
77 | PRIN Solid 62% ✗ | PRIN -3.5 | PRIN lost by 7 · not covered | 139.5 | Never met | ||||
| Final |  Alabama A&M
|
81 | @  Austin Peay
|
71 | APSU Solid 83% ✗ | APSU -10.5 | APSU lost by 10 · not covered | 143.5 | 2 met · APSU 2 · AAMU 0 | ||||
| Final |  VCU
|
70 | @  Villanova
|
61 | VILL Solid 78% ✗ | VILL -8.5 | VILL lost by 9 · not covered | 131.5 | 1 met · VILL 1 · VCU 0 | ||||
| Final |  San Francisco
|
72 | @  Cincinnati
|
73 | CIN Solid 75% ✓ | CIN -7.5 | CIN won by 1 · not covered | 143.5 | Never met | ||||
| Final |  10Colorado
|
60 | vs  10Boise St
|
53 | COLO Solid 62% ✓ | COLO -3.5 | COLO won by 7 · covered | 142.5 | UNDER 142.5 · 51.8% (113) ✓ | 1 met · BOIS 1 · COLO 0 |