Tuesday, March 19, 2024 13 games
Today: winner picks 6 of 11 right · total picks 2 of 3 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.
| Time / Status | Away | Home | Pick | Line | Prediction | Line pick | Result | O/U | Total pick | Model total | Prev. meetings | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final |  16Wagner
|
71 | vs  16Howard
|
68 | HOW Solid 61% ✗ | HOW -3 | HOW lost by 3 · not covered | 128.0 | UNDER 128.0 · 51.8% (139) ✗ | Never met | |||
| Final |  Cornell
|
83 | @  Ohio State
|
88 | OSU Solid 85% ✓ | OSU -11.5 | OSU won by 5 · not covered | 158.5 | Never met | ||||
| Final |  Xavier
|
76 | @  Georgia
|
78 | UGA -1.5 | UGA won by 2 · covered | 158.5 | 3 met · UGA 0 · XAV 3 | |||||
| Final |  Boston College
|
62 | @  Providence
|
57 | PROV Solid 62% ✗ | PROV -3.5 | PROV lost by 5 · not covered | 141.5 | 19 met · PROV 9 · BC 10 | ||||
| Final |  North Texas
|
84 | @  LSU
|
77 | LSU -2.5 | LSU lost by 7 · not covered | 135.5 | 3 met · LSU 2 · UNT 1 | |||||
| Final |  Texas Southern
|
71 | @  Tarleton St
|
82 | TAR Solid 83% ✓ | TAR -10.5 | TAR won by 11 · covered | 141.5 | Never met | ||||
| Final |  Kansas St
|
82 | @  Iowa
|
91 | IOWA Solid 69% ✓ | IOWA -5.5 | IOWA won by 9 · covered | 156.5 | 1 met · IOWA 1 · KSU 0 | ||||
| Final |  Minnesota
|
73 | @  Butler
|
72 | BTLR Solid 66% ✗ | BTLR -4.5 | BTLR lost by 1 · not covered | 150.5 | 2 met · BTLR 1 · MINN 1 | ||||
| Final |  Richmond
|
58 | @  Virginia Tech
|
74 | VT Solid 72% ✓ | VT -6.5 | VT won by 16 · covered | 142.5 | 3 met · VT 2 · RICH 1 | ||||
| Final |  South Florida
|
83 | @  UCF
|
77 | UCF Solid 69% ✗ | UCF -5.5 | UCF lost by 6 · not covered | 142.5 | 27 met · UCF 17 · USF 10 | ||||
| Final |  Abilene Chrstn
|
73 | vs  Texas A&M-CC
|
63 | AMCC Solid 66% ✗ | AMCC -4.5 | AMCC lost by 10 · not covered | 144.5 | UNDER 144.5 · 51.8% (136) ✓ | 15 met · AMCC 9 · ACU 6 | |||
| Final |  10Colorado St
|
67 | vs  10Virginia
|
42 | CSU Solid 62% ✓ | CSU -3.5 | CSU won by 25 · covered | 121.5 | UNDER 121.5 · 51.8% (109) ✓ | Never met | |||
| Final |  UC Irvine
|
75 | @  Utah
|
84 | UTAH Solid 78% ✓ | UTAH -8.5 | UTAH won by 9 · covered | 148.5 | 2 met · UTAH 2 · UCI 0 |