Thursday, March 14, 2024 52 games

Today: winner picks 31 of 40 right · line picks 2 of 3 right · total picks 27 of 50 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.

Time / Status	Away		Home		Pick	Line	Prediction	Line pick	Result	O/U	Total pick	Model total	Prev. meetings
Final	Kent State	67	vs Toledo	59	TOL Solid 66% ✗	TOL -4.5			TOL lost by 8 · not covered	150.5	UNDER 150.5 · 51.8% (126) ✓		32 met · TOL 12 · KENT 20
Final	Saint Joseph's	66	vs Richmond	61		RICH -2.5			RICH lost by 5 · not covered	140.5	UNDER 140.5 · 51.8% (127) ✓		27 met · RICH 11 · JOES 16
Final	Florida St	67	vs 4North Carolina	92	UNC Solid 83% ✓	UNC -10.5			UNC won by 25 · covered	157.5	UNDER 157.5 · 51.8% (159) ✗		36 met · UNC 27 · FSU 9
Final	Xavier	60	vs 2UConn	87	CONN Banker 91% ✓	CONN -14.5		XAV +14.5 · covers 53% ✗	CONN won by 27 · covered	151.5	UNDER 151.5 · 51.8% (147) ✓		8 met · CONN 4 · XAV 4
Final	Minnesota	67	vs Michigan St	77	MSU Solid 72% ✓	MSU -6.5			MSU won by 10 · covered	137.5	UNDER 137.5 · 51.8% (144) ✗		38 met · MSU 30 · MINN 8
Final	20BYU	67	vs 25Texas Tech	81	BYU Solid 62% ✗	BYU -3.5			BYU lost by 14 · not covered	150.5	UNDER 150.5 · 51.8% (148) ✓		1 met · TTU 1 · BYU 0
Final	Tulsa	79	vs East Carolina	84	ECU Solid 62% ✓	ECU -3.5			ECU won by 5 · covered	137.5	UNDER 137.5 · 51.8% (163) ✗		30 met · ECU 8 · TLSA 22
Final	Mississippi St	70	vs LSU	60	MSST Solid 66% ✓	MSST -4.5			MSST won by 10 · covered	142.5	UNDER 142.5 · 51.8% (130) ✓		38 met · LSU 18 · MSST 20
Final	Bowling Green	66	vs C Michigan	56	BGSU Solid 66% ✓	BGSU -4.5			BGSU won by 10 · covered	131.5	UNDER 131.5 · 51.8% (122) ✓		32 met · CMU 19 · BGSU 13
Final	VCU	73	vs UMass	59		VCU -1			VCU won by 14 · covered	139.0	UNDER 139.0 · 51.8% (132) ✓		13 met · MASS 4 · VCU 9
Final	Wake Forest	69	vs Pitt	81		WAKE -1.5			WAKE lost by 12 · not covered	144.5	UNDER 144.5 · 51.8% (150) ✗		15 met · PITT 7 · WAKE 8
Final	Wichita St	71	vs Memphis	65	MEM Solid 78% ✗	MEM -8.5			MEM lost by 6 · not covered	153.5	UNDER 153.5 · 51.8% (136) ✓		13 met · MEM 10 · WICH 3
Final	St John's	91	@ Seton Hall	72	SJU Solid 62% ✓	SJU -3.5			SJU won by 19 · covered	143.5			37 met · HALL 25 · SJU 12
Final	Maryland	56	vs Wisconsin	87	WIS Solid 62% ✓	WIS -3.5			WIS won by 31 · covered	131.5	UNDER 131.5 · 51.8% (143) ✗		18 met · WIS 11 · MD 7
Final	USC	49	vs 6Arizona	70	ARIZ Solid 81% ✓	ARIZ -9.5			ARIZ won by 21 · covered	155.5	UNDER 155.5 · 51.8% (119) ✓		44 met · ARIZ 29 · USC 15
Final	Fresno St	75	vs 18Utah State	87	USU Banker 87% ✓	USU -12.5		FRES +12.5 · covers 53% ✓	USU won by 12 · not covered	141.5	UNDER 141.5 · 51.8% (162) ✗		35 met · USU 25 · FRES 10
Final	Jackson St	62	vs Texas Southern	73		TXSO -2.5			TXSO won by 11 · covered	140.5	UNDER 140.5 · 51.8% (135) ✓		47 met · TXSO 27 · JKST 20
Final	TCU	45	vs 1Houston	60	HOU Solid 85% ✓	HOU -11.5			HOU won by 15 · covered	136.5	UNDER 136.5 · 51.8% (105) ✓		11 met · HOU 5 · TCU 6
Final	Arkansas	66	vs 15South Carolina	80	SC Solid 69% ✓	SC -5.5			SC won by 14 · covered	142.5	UNDER 142.5 · 51.8% (146) ✗		27 met · SC 13 · ARK 14
Final	Miami OH	63	vs Akron	75	AKR Solid 78% ✓	AKR -8.5			AKR won by 12 · covered	135.5	UNDER 135.5 · 51.8% (138) ✗		45 met · AKR 27 · M-OH 18
Final	St Bonaventure	75	vs Loyola Chicago	74		LUC -2.5			LUC lost by 1 · not covered	137.5	UNDER 137.5 · 51.8% (149) ✗		2 met · LUC 1 · SBU 1
Final	UCLA	66	vs Oregon	68	ORE Solid 66% ✓	ORE -4.5			ORE won by 2 · not covered	128.5	UNDER 128.5 · 51.8% (134) ✗		45 met · ORE 22 · UCLA 23
Final	San Diego St	74	@ UNLV	71	SDSU Solid 66% ✓	SDSU -4.5			SDSU won by 3 · not covered	134.5			52 met · UNLV 15 · SDSU 37
Final	Morgan St	65	vs Howard	78	HOW Solid 69% ✓	HOW -5.5			HOW won by 13 · covered	149.5	UNDER 149.5 · 51.8% (143) ✓		35 met · HOW 13 · MORG 22
Final	UTEP	66	vs Liberty	57		LIB -2.5			LIB lost by 9 · not covered	131.5	UNDER 131.5 · 51.8% (123) ✓		2 met · LIB 1 · UTEP 1
Final	Niagara	59	vs Marist	65		MRST -2.5			MRST won by 6 · covered	127.5	UNDER 127.5 · 51.8% (124) ✓		49 met · MRST 22 · NIA 27
Final	Ohio State	90	vs Iowa	78		OSU -2.5			OSU won by 12 · covered	152.5	UNDER 152.5 · 51.8% (168) ✗		38 met · IOWA 17 · OSU 21
Final	W Michigan	55	vs Ohio	82	OHIO Solid 81% ✓	OHIO -9.5			OHIO won by 27 · covered	146.5	UNDER 146.5 · 51.8% (137) ✓		30 met · OHIO 18 · WMU 12
Final	NC State	74	vs 11Duke	69	DUKE Solid 83% ✗	DUKE -10.5			DUKE lost by 5 · not covered	146.5	UNDER 146.5 · 51.8% (143) ✓		36 met · DUKE 26 · NCSU 10
Final	Kansas St	57	vs 7Iowa State	76	ISU Solid 75% ✓	ISU -7.5			ISU won by 19 · covered	134.5	UNDER 134.5 · 51.8% (133) ✓		47 met · ISU 22 · KSU 25
Final	Ole Miss	71	vs Texas A&M	80	TA&M Solid 69% ✓	TA&M -5.5			TA&M won by 9 · covered	142.5	UNDER 142.5 · 51.8% (151) ✗		15 met · TA&M 10 · MISS 5
Final	Tulane	71	vs North Texas	81	UNT Solid 69% ✓	UNT -5.5			UNT won by 10 · covered	138.5	UNDER 138.5 · 51.8% (152) ✗		4 met · UNT 2 · TULN 2
Final	Providence	78	vs 8Creighton	73	CREI Solid 78% ✗	CREI -8.5			CREI lost by 5 · not covered	141.5	UNDER 141.5 · 51.8% (151) ✗		25 met · CREI 11 · PROV 14
Final	Duquesne	65	vs 24Dayton	57	DAY Solid 72% ✗	DAY -6.5			DAY lost by 8 · not covered	134.5	UNDER 134.5 · 51.8% (122) ✓		40 met · DAY 30 · DUQ 10
Final	Delaware St	71	vs SC State	58		SCST -2.5			SCST lost by 13 · not covered	134.5	UNDER 134.5 · 51.8% (129) ✓		33 met · SCST 17 · DSU 16
Final	Temple	75	vs SMU	60	SMU Banker 86% ✗	SMU -12		TEM +12 · covers 53% ✓	SMU lost by 15 · not covered	140.5	UNDER 140.5 · 51.8% (135) ✓		18 met · SMU 12 · TEM 6
Final	Stanford	62	vs 22Washington St	79	WSU Solid 75% ✓	WSU -7.5			WSU won by 17 · covered	141.5	UNDER 141.5 · 51.8% (141) ✓		44 met · WSU 14 · STAN 30
Final	New Mexico St	69	vs Western KY	89	WKU Solid 69% ✓	WKU -5.5			WKU won by 20 · covered	147.5	UNDER 147.5 · 51.8% (158) ✗		6 met · WKU 4 · NMSU 2
Final	CA Baptist	57	vs Seattle U	81	SEA Solid 75% ✓	SEA -7.5			SEA won by 24 · covered	127.5	UNDER 127.5 · 51.8% (138) ✗		13 met · SEA 8 · CBU 5
Final	CSU Northridge	68	vs Hawai'i	75	HAW Solid 71% ✓	HAW -6			HAW won by 7 · covered	141.0	UNDER 141.0 · 51.8% (143) ✗		26 met · HAW 18 · CSUN 8
Final	Saint Peter's	50	vs Rider	48		SPU -1.5			SPU won by 2 · covered	131.5	UNDER 131.5 · 51.8% (98) ✓		53 met · RID 31 · SPU 22
Final	Penn State	59	vs Indiana	61		IU -2.5			IU won by 2 · not covered	145.5	UNDER 145.5 · 51.8% (120) ✓		39 met · IU 23 · PSU 16
Final	Colorado St	85	vs 23Nevada	78	NEV Solid 62% ✗	NEV -3.5			NEV lost by 7 · not covered	138.5	UNDER 138.5 · 51.8% (163) ✗		23 met · NEV 15 · CSU 8
Final	Boston College	60	vs Virginia	66	UVA Solid 69% ✓	UVA -5.5			UVA won by 6 · covered	124.5	UNDER 124.5 · 51.8% (126) ✗		26 met · UVA 17 · BC 9
Final	Villanova	65	vs 10Marquette	71	MARQ Solid 62% ✓	MARQ -3.5			MARQ won by 6 · covered	140.5	UNDER 140.5 · 51.8% (136) ✓		38 met · MARQ 16 · VILL 22
Final	Bethune	73	vs Southern	58	SOU Solid 66% ✗	SOU -4.5			SOU lost by 15 · not covered	129.5	UNDER 129.5 · 51.8% (131) ✗		6 met · SOU 2 · BCU 4
Final	Cincinnati	56	vs 14Baylor	68	BAY Solid 72% ✓	BAY -6.5			BAY won by 12 · covered	138.5	UNDER 138.5 · 51.8% (124) ✓		1 met · BAY 1 · CIN 0
Final	Georgia	80	vs Florida	85	FLA Solid 75% ✓	FLA -7.5			FLA won by 5 · not covered	155.5	UNDER 155.5 · 51.8% (165) ✗		43 met · FLA 34 · UGA 9
Final	Utah	58	vs Colorado	72	COLO Solid 66% ✓	COLO -4.5			COLO won by 14 · covered	151.5	UNDER 151.5 · 51.8% (130) ✓		31 met · COLO 15 · UTAH 16
Final	SF Austin	78	vs UT Arlington	109	UTA Solid 62% ✓	UTA -3.5			UTA won by 31 · covered	141.5	UNDER 141.5 · 51.8% (187) ✗		23 met · UTA 13 · SFA 10
Final	UC Riverside	67	vs Long Beach St	86	LBSU Solid 62% ✓	LBSU -3.5			LBSU won by 19 · covered	149.5	UNDER 149.5 · 51.8% (153) ✗		44 met · LBSU 31 · UCR 13
Final	New Mexico	76	vs Boise St	66		UNM -1.5			UNM won by 10 · covered	153.5	UNDER 153.5 · 51.8% (142) ✓		25 met · BOIS 12 · UNM 13