Wednesday, March 13, 2024 43 games

Today: winner picks 24 of 33 right · line picks 2 of 3 right · total picks 22 of 40 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.

Time / Status	Away		Home		Pick	Line	Prediction	Line pick	Result	O/U	Total pick	Model total	Prev. meetings
Final	Saint Joseph's	64	vs George Mason	57		GMU -1.5			GMU lost by 7 · not covered	137.5	UNDER 137.5 · 51.8% (121) ✓		16 met · GMU 10 · JOES 6
Final	Florida St	86	vs Virginia Tech	76	VT Solid 66% ✗	VT -4.5			VT lost by 10 · not covered	151.5	UNDER 151.5 · 51.8% (162) ✗		29 met · VT 10 · FSU 19
Final	UCF	73	vs 20BYU	87	BYU Solid 69% ✓	BYU -5.5			BYU won by 14 · covered	144.5	UNDER 144.5 · 51.8% (160) ✗		2 met · BYU 2 · UCF 0
Final	Rice	81	vs Wichita St	88		WICH -2.5			WICH won by 7 · covered	139.5	UNDER 139.5 · 51.8% (169) ✗		2 met · WICH 2 · RICE 0
Final	Fresno St	77	vs Wyoming	73	WYO Solid 66% ✗	WYO -4.5			WYO lost by 4 · not covered	138.5	UNDER 138.5 · 51.8% (150) ✗		24 met · WYO 11 · FRES 13
Final	Fordham	62	vs VCU	69	VCU Solid 75% ✓	VCU -7.5			VCU won by 7 · not covered	133.5	UNDER 133.5 · 51.8% (131) ✓		14 met · VCU 13 · FOR 1
Final	Notre Dame	59	vs Wake Forest	72	WAKE Solid 81% ✓	WAKE -9.5			WAKE won by 13 · covered	136.5	UNDER 136.5 · 51.8% (131) ✓		16 met · WAKE 7 · ND 9
Final	USC	80	vs Washington	74	USC Solid 62% ✓	USC -3.5			USC won by 6 · covered	152.5	UNDER 152.5 · 51.8% (154) ✗		41 met · WASH 20 · USC 21
Final	Alabama A&M	75	vs Alcorn St	63	ALCN Solid 62% ✗	ALCN -3.5			ALCN lost by 12 · not covered	138.5	UNDER 138.5 · 51.8% (138) ✓		42 met · ALCN 23 · AAMU 19
Final	Oklahoma	70	vs TCU	77	TCU Solid 62% ✓	TCU -3.5			TCU won by 7 · covered	145.5	UNDER 145.5 · 51.8% (147) ✗		26 met · TCU 7 · OU 19
Final	UTSA	61	vs Temple	64		UTSA -2			UTSA lost by 3 · not covered	150.0	UNDER 150.0 · 51.8% (125) ✓		2 met · TEM 2 · UTSA 0
Final	Xavier	76	vs Butler	72		XAV -2.5			XAV won by 4 · covered	153.5	UNDER 153.5 · 51.8% (148) ✓		32 met · BTLR 13 · XAV 19
Final	San José St	62	vs Colorado St	72	CSU Banker 91% ✓	CSU -14.5		SJSU +14.5 · covers 53% ✓	CSU won by 10 · not covered	141.5	UNDER 141.5 · 51.8% (134) ✓		20 met · CSU 18 · SJSU 2
Final	La Salle	73	vs St Bonaventure	75	SBU Solid 75% ✓	SBU -7.5			SBU won by 2 · not covered	137.5	UNDER 137.5 · 51.8% (148) ✗		26 met · SBU 12 · LAS 14
Final	Nicholls	76	@ McNeese	92	MCN Banker 93% ✓	MCN -16.5		NICH +16.5 · covers 53% ✓	MCN won by 16 · not covered	135.5			46 met · MCN 22 · NICH 24
Final	Oregon St	57	vs UCLA	67	UCLA Solid 72% ✓	UCLA -6.5			UCLA won by 10 · covered	126.5	UNDER 126.5 · 51.8% (124) ✓		42 met · UCLA 31 · ORST 11
Final	Coppin St	51	vs Norfolk St	75	NORF Solid 83% ✓	NORF -10.5			NORF won by 24 · covered	129.5	UNDER 129.5 · 51.8% (126) ✓		45 met · NORF 32 · COPP 13
Final	FIU	59	vs Sam Houston	78	SHSU Solid 75% ✓	SHSU -7.5			SHSU won by 19 · covered	145.5	UNDER 145.5 · 51.8% (137) ✓		5 met · SHSU 3 · FIU 2
Final	Canisius	52	vs Quinnipiac	76	QUIN Solid 72% ✓	QUIN -6.5			QUIN won by 24 · covered	145.5	UNDER 145.5 · 51.8% (128) ✓		23 met · QUIN 8 · CAN 15
Final	Rutgers	51	vs Maryland	65	MD Solid 66% ✓	MD -4.5			MD won by 14 · covered	125.5	UNDER 125.5 · 51.8% (116) ✓		16 met · MD 11 · RUTG 5
Final	Georgetown	56	vs Providence	74	PROV Solid 81% ✓	PROV -9.5			PROV won by 18 · covered	141.5	UNDER 141.5 · 51.8% (130) ✓		33 met · PROV 19 · GTWN 14
Final	NC State	83	vs Syracuse	65		SYR -1.5			SYR lost by 18 · not covered	151.5	UNDER 151.5 · 51.8% (148) ✓		17 met · SYR 12 · NCSU 5
Final	Kansas St	78	vs Texas	74	TEX Solid 69% ✗	TEX -5.5			TEX lost by 4 · not covered	142.5	UNDER 142.5 · 51.8% (152) ✗		36 met · TEX 19 · KSU 17
Final	Vanderbilt	85	vs Arkansas	90	ARK Solid 69% ✓	ARK -5.5			ARK won by 5 · not covered	148.5	UNDER 148.5 · 51.8% (175) ✗		30 met · ARK 21 · VAN 9
Final	Air Force	56	vs New Mexico	82	UNM Banker 91% ✓	UNM -14.5		AF +14.5 · covers 53% ✗	UNM won by 26 · covered	143.5	UNDER 143.5 · 51.8% (138) ✓		44 met · UNM 28 · AF 16
Final	Lehigh	55	@ Colgate	74	COLG Solid 78% ✓	COLG -8.5			COLG won by 19 · covered	136.5			49 met · COLG 24 · LEH 25
Final	Saint Louis	73	vs Duquesne	83	DUQ Solid 78% ✓	DUQ -8.5			DUQ won by 10 · covered	146.5	UNDER 146.5 · 51.8% (156) ✗		32 met · DUQ 15 · SLU 17
Final	MD Eastern	81	vs NC Central	87	NCCU Solid 81% ✓	NCCU -9.5			NCCU won by 6 · not covered	133.5	UNDER 133.5 · 51.8% (168) ✗		25 met · NCCU 22 · UMES 3
Final	Michigan	57	vs Penn State	66	PSU Solid 72% ✓	PSU -6.5			PSU won by 9 · covered	150.5	UNDER 150.5 · 51.8% (123) ✓		35 met · PSU 8 · MICH 27
Final	Stanford	87	vs California	76		STAN -1.5			STAN won by 11 · covered	151.5	UNDER 151.5 · 51.8% (163) ✗		48 met · CAL 20 · STAN 28
Final	MTSU	70	vs Louisiana Tech	67	LT Solid 78% ✗	LT -8.5			LT lost by 3 · not covered	133.5	UNDER 133.5 · 51.8% (137) ✗		13 met · LT 8 · MTSU 5
Final	CA Baptist	74	vs Utah Valley	63	UVU Solid 69% ✗	UVU -5.5			UVU lost by 11 · not covered	127.5	UNDER 127.5 · 51.8% (137) ✗		12 met · UVU 9 · CBU 3
Final	Bakersfield	78	vs UC Riverside	83		UCR -1.5			UCR won by 5 · covered	130.5	UNDER 130.5 · 51.8% (161) ✗		14 met · UCR 8 · CSUB 6
Final	DePaul	57	vs Villanova	58	VILL Banker 98% ✓	VILL -24.5			VILL won by 1 · not covered	136.5			30 met · VILL 27 · DEP 3
Final	Iona	63	vs Fairfield	68	FAIR Solid 66% ✓	FAIR -4.5			FAIR won by 5 · covered	144.5	UNDER 144.5 · 51.8% (131) ✓		47 met · FAIR 19 · IONA 28
Final	Boston College	76	vs Clemson	55	CLEM Solid 75% ✗	CLEM -7.5			CLEM lost by 21 · not covered	145.5	UNDER 145.5 · 51.8% (131) ✓		28 met · CLEM 19 · BC 9
Final	Cincinnati	72	vs 16Kansas	52		CIN -2.5			CIN won by 20 · covered	139.5	UNDER 139.5 · 51.8% (124) ✓		1 met · KU 1 · CIN 0
Final	Missouri	59	vs Georgia	64		UGA -2.5			UGA won by 5 · covered	147.5	UNDER 147.5 · 51.8% (123) ✓		19 met · UGA 9 · MIZ 10
Final	Alabama St	50	vs Grambling	56		GRAM -1.5			GRAM won by 6 · covered	128.5	UNDER 128.5 · 51.8% (106) ✓		45 met · GRAM 16 · ALST 29
Final	Arizona St	57	vs Utah	90	UTAH Solid 72% ✓	UTAH -6.5			UTAH won by 33 · covered	143.5	UNDER 143.5 · 51.8% (147) ✗		23 met · UTAH 11 · ASU 12
Final	Abilene Chrstn	57	vs SF Austin	60	SFA Solid 62% ✓	SFA -3.5			SFA won by 3 · not covered	140.5	UNDER 140.5 · 51.8% (117) ✓		19 met · SFA 13 · ACU 6
Final	CSU Northridge	87	vs Santa Barbara	84	UCSB Solid 62% ✗	UCSB -3.5			UCSB lost by 3 · not covered	150.5	UNDER 150.5 · 51.8% (171) ✗		48 met · UCSB 28 · CSUN 20
Final	Montana St	85	vs Montana	70	MONT Solid 72% ✗	MONT -6.5			MONT lost by 15 · not covered	145.5	UNDER 145.5 · 51.8% (155) ✗		44 met · MONT 32 · MTST 12