Monday, March 11, 2024 14 games

Today: winner picks 9 of 12 right · total picks 7 of 14 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.

Time / Status	Away		Home		Pick	Line	Prediction	Line pick	Result	O/U	Total pick	Model total	Prev. meetings
Final	LSU N Orleans	57	vs Lamar	71	LAM Solid 81% ✓	LAM -9.5			LAM won by 14 · covered	154.5	UNDER 154.5 · 51.8% (128) ✓		15 met · LAM 4 · NOLA 11
Final	Towson	56	vs Charleston	61	COFC Solid 72% ✓	COFC -6.5			COFC won by 5 · not covered	137.5	UNDER 137.5 · 51.8% (117) ✓		27 met · COFC 17 · TOW 10
Final	St Thomas	49	vs S Dakota St	59	SDST Solid 62% ✓	SDST -3.5			SDST won by 10 · covered	141.5	UNDER 141.5 · 51.8% (108) ✓		6 met · SDST 5 · STMN 1
Final	ETSU	69	vs Samford	76	SAM Solid 78% ✓	SAM -8.5			SAM won by 7 · not covered	146.5	UNDER 146.5 · 51.8% (145) ✓		20 met · SAM 6 · ETSU 14
Final	Arkansas St	71	vs James Madison	91	JMU Solid 69% ✓	JMU -5.5			JMU won by 20 · covered	152.5	UNDER 152.5 · 51.8% (162) ✗		1 met · JMU 1 · ARST 0
Final	Cleveland St	71	vs Oakland	74	OAK Solid 62% ✓	OAK -3.5			OAK won by 3 · not covered	143.5	UNDER 143.5 · 51.8% (145) ✗		26 met · OAK 15 · CLE 11
Final	Montana St	91	vs Weber St	82	WEB Solid 78% ✗	WEB -8.5			WEB lost by 9 · not covered	142.5	UNDER 142.5 · 51.8% (173) ✗		46 met · WEB 30 · MTST 16
Final	East Texas A&M	51	vs Nicholls	72	ETAM Solid 66% ✗	ETAM -4.5			ETAM lost by 21 · not covered	140.5	UNDER 140.5 · 51.8% (123) ✓		4 met · NICH 3 · ETAM 1
Final	Stony Brook	63	vs Hofstra	59	HOF Solid 75% ✗	HOF -7.5			HOF lost by 4 · not covered	139.5	UNDER 139.5 · 51.8% (122) ✓		19 met · HOF 14 · STBK 5
Final	Santa Clara	65	vs 21Saint Mary's	79	SMC Solid 83% ✓	SMC -10.5			SMC won by 14 · covered	136.5	UNDER 136.5 · 51.8% (144) ✗		49 met · SMC 36 · SCU 13
Final	Denver	66	vs Omaha	63		OMA -1.5			OMA lost by 3 · not covered	154.5	UNDER 154.5 · 51.8% (129) ✓		24 met · OMA 13 · DEN 11
Final	Milwaukee	82	vs N Kentucky	75		NKU -1.5			NKU lost by 7 · not covered	153.5	UNDER 153.5 · 51.8% (157) ✗		20 met · NKU 13 · MILW 7
Final	Portland St	81	vs Montana	87	MONT Solid 69% ✓	MONT -5.5			MONT won by 6 · covered	144.5	UNDER 144.5 · 51.8% (168) ✗		43 met · MONT 27 · PRST 16
Final	San Francisco	77	vs 17Gonzaga	89	GONZ Solid 78% ✓	GONZ -8.5			GONZ won by 12 · covered	148.5	UNDER 148.5 · 51.8% (166) ✗		50 met · GONZ 46 · SF 4