Wednesday, March 6, 2024 35 games

Today: winner picks 26 of 30 right · line picks 5 of 8 right · total picks 3 of 3 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.

Time / Status	Away		Home		Pick	Line	Prediction	Line pick	Result	O/U	Total pick	Model total	Prev. meetings
Final	Villanova	56	@ Seton Hall	66		VILL -1.5			VILL lost by 10 · not covered	135.5			38 met · HALL 8 · VILL 30
Final	Saint Joseph's	66	@ Richmond	73	RICH Solid 66% ✓	RICH -4.5			RICH won by 7 · covered	145.5			26 met · RICH 10 · JOES 16
Final	St Bonaventure	75	@ G Washington	86	SBU Solid 78% ✗	SBU -8.5			SBU lost by 11 · not covered	145.5			21 met · GW 12 · SBU 9
Final	George Mason	69	@ Rhode Island	51	GMU Solid 62% ✓	GMU -3.5			GMU won by 18 · covered	142.5			14 met · URI 7 · GMU 7
Final	Loyola Chicago	69	@ Davidson	59		DAV -1.5			DAV lost by 10 · not covered	136.5			3 met · DAV 2 · LUC 1
Final	4Tennessee	66	@ 17South Carolina	59	TENN Solid 72% ✓	TENN -6.5			TENN won by 7 · covered	142.5			43 met · SC 11 · TENN 32
Final	LSU	83	@ Arkansas	94	ARK Solid 66% ✓	ARK -4.5			ARK won by 11 · covered	154.5			45 met · ARK 19 · LSU 26
Final	Northwestern	49	@ Michigan St	53	MSU Solid 81% ✓	MSU -9.5			MSU won by 4 · not covered	134.5			35 met · MSU 29 · NU 6
Final	Rice	64	@ Charlotte	69	CLT Solid 75% ✓	CLT -7.5			CLT won by 5 · not covered	135.5			18 met · CLT 8 · RICE 10
Final	1Houston	67	@ UCF	59	HOU Solid 78% ✓	HOU -8.5			HOU won by 8 · not covered	132.5			34 met · UCF 11 · HOU 23
Final	TCU	93	@ West Virginia	81	TCU Solid 69% ✓	TCU -5.5			TCU won by 12 · covered	152.5			24 met · WVU 18 · TCU 6
Final	Boston College	67	@ Miami	57	MIA Solid 69% ✗	MIA -5.5			MIA lost by 10 · not covered	152.5			36 met · MIA 21 · BC 15
Final	FDU	61	@ Le Moyne	82	LEM Solid 62% ✓	LEM -3.5			LEM won by 21 · covered	151.5			2 met · LEM 1 · FDU 1
Final	Wagner	60	@ Sacred Heart	57	SHU Solid 69% ✗	SHU -5.5			SHU lost by 3 · not covered	131.5			42 met · SHU 18 · WAG 24
Final	Long Island	66	@ Merrimack	72	MRMK Banker 91% ✓	MRMK -14.5		LIU +14.5 · covers 53% ✓	MRMK won by 6 · not covered	140.0			11 met · MRMK 8 · LIU 3
Final	Saint Francis	62	@ C Connecticut	71	CCSU Banker 89% ✓	CCSU -13.5		SFPA +13.5 · covers 53% ✓	CCSU won by 9 · not covered	135.5			41 met · CCSU 19 · SFPA 22
Final	Fordham	64	@ UMass	66	MASS Solid 82% ✓	MASS -10			MASS won by 2 · not covered	143.5			28 met · MASS 16 · FOR 12
Final	Xavier	66	@ Butler	72		BTLR -1.5			BTLR won by 6 · covered	156.5			31 met · BTLR 12 · XAV 19
Final	S Indiana	64	vs Tennessee St	78	TNST Solid 62% ✓	TNST -3.5			TNST won by 14 · covered	142.5	UNDER 142.5 · 51.8% (142) ✓		4 met · TNST 2 · USI 2
Final	Hou Christian	68	@ Lamar	78	LAM Banker 93% ✓	LAM -16.5		HCU +16.5 · covers 53% ✓	LAM won by 10 · not covered	156.5			20 met · LAM 11 · HCU 9
Final	FAU	80	@ North Texas	76		FAU -2.5			FAU won by 4 · covered	136.5			23 met · UNT 14 · FAU 9
Final	East Carolina	77	@ SMU	80	SMU Banker 87% ✓	SMU -12.5		ECU +12.5 · covers 53% ✓	SMU won by 3 · not covered	140.5			26 met · SMU 20 · ECU 6
Final	McNeese	81	@ LSU N Orleans	57	MCN Banker 93% ✓	MCN -16.5		NOLA +16.5 · covers 53% ✗	MCN won by 24 · covered	154.5			22 met · NOLA 13 · MCN 9
Final	N'Western St	80	@ East Texas A&M	83	ETAM Solid 62% ✓	ETAM -3.5			ETAM won by 3 · not covered	138.5			3 met · ETAM 0 · NWST 3
Final	2UConn	74	@ 8Marquette	67	CONN Solid 69% ✓	CONN -5.5			CONN won by 7 · covered	151.5			17 met · MARQ 8 · CONN 9
Final	Radford	67	vs SC Upstate	60	RAD Solid 66% ✓	RAD -4.5			RAD won by 7 · covered	139.5	UNDER 139.5 · 51.8% (127) ✓		10 met · UPST 2 · RAD 8
Final	Incarnate Word	52	@ Texas A&M-CC	71	AMCC Banker 89% ✓	AMCC -13.5		UIW +13.5 · covers 53% ✗	AMCC won by 19 · covered	146.5			20 met · AMCC 14 · UIW 6
Final	Vanderbilt	77	@ 15Kentucky	93	UK Banker 94% ✓	UK -17.5		VAN +17.5 · covers 53% ✓	UK won by 16 · not covered	161.5			46 met · UK 33 · VAN 13
Final	Mississippi St	69	@ Texas A&M	75		TA&M -2.5			TA&M won by 6 · covered	138.5			16 met · TA&M 8 · MSST 8
Final	Indiana	70	@ Minnesota	58	MINN Solid 69% ✗	MINN -5.5			MINN lost by 12 · not covered	148.5			36 met · MINN 14 · IU 22
Final	20BYU	63	@ 6Iowa State	68	ISU Solid 75% ✓	ISU -7.5			ISU won by 5 · not covered	144.5			3 met · ISU 2 · BYU 1
Final	22Utah State	90	@ San José St	70	USU Solid 83% ✓	USU -10.5			USU won by 20 · covered	145.5			40 met · SJSU 3 · USU 37
Final	E Illinois	57	vs SIUE	68	SIUE Solid 62% ✓	SIUE -3.5			SIUE won by 11 · covered	143.5	UNDER 143.5 · 51.8% (125) ✓		27 met · SIUE 10 · EIU 17
Final	Fresno St	58	@ New Mexico	79	UNM Banker 94% ✓	UNM -17.5		FRES +17.5 · covers 53% ✗	UNM won by 21 · covered	153.5			24 met · UNM 10 · FRES 14
Final	CSU Northridge	70	@ Hawai'i	72	HAW Solid 77% ✓	HAW -8			HAW won by 2 · not covered	145.0			25 met · HAW 17 · CSUN 8