NCAA Predictor
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Tuesday, March 5, 2024 43 games

Today: winner picks 23 of 34 right · line picks 1 of 3 right · total picks 0 of 3 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.

Time / StatusAwayHomePickLinePredictionLine pickResultO/UTotal pickModel totalPrev. meetings
Final UMass Lowell 65 @ Maine 71 UML Solid 66% ✗ UML -4.5 UML lost by 6 · not covered 138.5 20 met · ME 5 · UML 15
Final Coastal 75 vs UL Monroe 71 ULM -1.5 ULM lost by 4 · not covered 143.5 UNDER 143.5 · 51.8% (146) ✗ 10 met · ULM 4 · CCU 6
Final Holy Cross 84 @ Army 68 ARMY Solid 66% ✗ ARMY -4.5 ARMY lost by 16 · not covered 129.5 49 met · ARMY 18 · HC 31
Final Liberty 61 @ MTSU 69 LIB Solid 69% ✗ LIB -5.5 LIB lost by 8 · not covered 136.5 1 met · MTSU 0 · LIB 1
Final UAlbany 79 @ Bryant 83 BRY Solid 78% ✓ BRY -8.5 BRY won by 4 · not covered 169.5 6 met · BRY 3 · UALB 3
Final Binghamton 72 @ UMBC 71 UMBC -2.5 UMBC lost by 1 · not covered 153.5 45 met · UMBC 25 · BING 20
Final Vermont 68 @ New Hampshire 64 UVM Solid 78% ✓ UVM -8.5 UVM won by 4 · not covered 141.5 47 met · UNH 6 · UVM 41
Final Harvard 69 @ Dartmouth 76 HARV Solid 72% ✗ HARV -6.5 HARV lost by 7 · not covered 137.5 41 met · DART 11 · HARV 30
Final Bowling Green 73 @ W Michigan 65 WMU -1.5 WMU lost by 8 · not covered 143.5 30 met · WMU 18 · BGSU 12
Final Toledo 97 @ Miami OH 63 TOL -2.5 TOL won by 34 · covered 151.5 31 met · M-OH 8 · TOL 23
Final E Michigan 61 @ Akron 60 AKR Banker 97% ✗ AKR -21.5 AKR lost by 1 · not covered 132.5 OVER 132.5 · 52.3% (121) ✗ 35 met · AKR 28 · EMU 7
Final Kent State 69 @ Ball State 76 KENT Solid 62% ✗ KENT -3.5 KENT lost by 7 · not covered 142.5 27 met · BALL 6 · KENT 21
Final Ohio 78 @ Buffalo 66 OHIO Solid 85% ✓ OHIO -11.5 OHIO won by 12 · covered 151.5 46 met · BUF 18 · OHIO 28
Final Duquesne 69 @ VCU 59 VCU Solid 66% ✗ VCU -4.5 VCU lost by 10 · not covered 136.5 10 met · VCU 8 · DUQ 2
Final 16Alabama 87 @ Florida 105 FLA -2.5 FLA won by 18 · covered 176.5 30 met · FLA 22 · ALA 8
Final Ole Miss 66 @ Georgia 69 UGA -1.5 UGA won by 3 · covered 148.5 29 met · UGA 16 · MISS 13
Final Providence 71 @ Georgetown 58 PROV Solid 78% ✓ PROV -8.5 PROV won by 13 · covered 145.5 32 met · GTWN 14 · PROV 18
Final 3Purdue 77 @ 12Illinois 71 ILL -2.5 ILL lost by 6 · not covered 164.5 37 met · ILL 14 · PUR 23
Final Tulane 72 @ 24South Florida 85 USF Solid 75% ✓ USF -7.5 USF won by 13 · covered 156.5 19 met · USF 7 · TULN 12
Final Notre Dame 51 @ 7North Carolina 84 UNC Banker 92% ✓ UNC -15.5 ND +15.5 · covers 53% ✗ UNC won by 33 · covered 138.5 19 met · UNC 14 · ND 5
Final Syracuse 75 @ Clemson 90 CLEM Solid 81% ✓ CLEM -9.5 CLEM won by 15 · covered 152.5 14 met · CLEM 8 · SYR 6
Final Virginia Tech 80 @ Louisville 64 VT Solid 75% ✓ VT -7.5 VT won by 16 · covered 152.5 11 met · LOU 8 · VT 3
Final Queens 71 @ Stetson 83 STET Solid 69% ✓ STET -5.5 STET won by 12 · covered 160.5 3 met · STET 1 · QUC 2
Final Jacksonville 67 @ E Kentucky 65 EKU Solid 78% ✗ EKU -8.5 EKU lost by 2 · not covered 143.5 5 met · EKU 4 · JAX 1
Final Robert Morris 63 @ Purdue FW 78 PFW Solid 83% ✓ PFW -10.5 PFW won by 15 · covered 147.5 8 met · PFW 4 · RMU 4
Final IU Indy 66 @ Cleveland St 85 CLE Banker 93% ✓ CLE -16.5 IUIN +16.5 · covers 53% ✗ CLE won by 19 · covered 144.5 14 met · CLE 11 · IUIN 3
Final Loyola MD 48 @ Navy 64 NAVY Solid 71% ✓ NAVY -6 NAVY won by 16 · covered 132.5 27 met · NAVY 19 · L-MD 8
Final C Michigan 69 @ N Illinois 63 CMU Solid 62% ✓ CMU -3.5 CMU won by 6 · covered 136.5 43 met · NIU 17 · CMU 26
Final Cincinnati 71 @ Oklahoma 74 OU Solid 66% ✓ OU -4.5 OU won by 3 · not covered 137.5 3 met · OU 1 · CIN 2
Final Texas Tech 75 @ Oklahoma St 58 TTU -2.5 TTU won by 17 · covered 145.5 48 met · OKST 31 · TTU 17
Final North Alabama 77 @ Lipscomb 75 LIP Solid 75% ✗ LIP -7.5 LIP lost by 2 · not covered 157.5 11 met · LIP 7 · UNA 4
Final North Florida 98 @ Austin Peay 101 APSU Solid 62% ✓ APSU -3.5 APSU won by 3 · not covered 143.5 7 met · APSU 4 · UNF 3
Final Detroit Mercy 79 @ Milwaukee 83 MILW Solid 85% ✓ MILW -11.5 MILW won by 4 · not covered 153.5 46 met · MILW 29 · DETM 17
Final Air Force 63 @ Wyoming 74 WYO Solid 72% ✓ WYO -6.5 WYO won by 11 · covered 135.5 45 met · WYO 21 · AF 24
Final Old Dominion 83 vs Texas St 92 TXST Solid 62% ✓ TXST -3.5 TXST won by 9 · covered 136.5 UNDER 136.5 · 51.8% (175) ✗ 2 met · TXST 1 · ODU 1
Final 25Dayton 100 @ Saint Louis 83 DAY Solid 81% ✓ DAY -9.5 DAY won by 17 · covered 149.5 41 met · SLU 15 · DAY 26
Final 13Auburn 101 @ Missouri 74 AUB Solid 85% ✓ AUB -11.5 AUB won by 27 · covered 150.5 15 met · MIZ 6 · AUB 9
Final St John's 104 @ DePaul 77 SJU Banker 96% ✓ SJU -19.5 SJU won by 27 · covered 151.5 35 met · DEP 11 · SJU 24
Final Kansas St 68 @ 14Kansas 90 KU Solid 85% ✓ KU -11.5 KU won by 22 · covered 143.5 49 met · KU 41 · KSU 8
Final Florida St 73 @ Pitt 88 PITT Solid 75% ✓ PITT -7.5 PITT won by 15 · covered 148.5 16 met · PITT 10 · FSU 6
Final Georgia Tech 70 @ Wake Forest 69 WAKE Banker 89% ✗ WAKE -13.5 GT +13.5 · covers 53% ✓ WAKE lost by 1 · not covered 151.5 37 met · WAKE 16 · GT 21
Final 21San Diego St 58 @ UNLV 62 SDSU -2.5 SDSU lost by 4 · not covered 136.5 51 met · UNLV 14 · SDSU 37
Final Nevada 76 @ Boise St 66 BOIS Solid 69% ✗ BOIS -5.5 BOIS lost by 10 · not covered 141.5 45 met · BOIS 17 · NEV 28