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Friday, March 1, 2024 26 games

Today: winner picks 15 of 17 right · line picks 3 of 4 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.

Time / Status	Away		Home		Pick	Line	Line pick	Result	O/U	Prev. meetings
Final	Bowling Green	59	@ Ohio	66	OHIO Solid 78% ✓	OHIO -8.5		OHIO won by 7 · not covered	148.5	43 met · OHIO 19 · BGSU 24
Final	Arkansas St	57	@ App State	80	APP Solid 75% ✓	APP -7.5		APP won by 23 · covered	150.5	14 met · APP 8 · ARST 6
Final	Kennesaw St	82	@ Queens	91		QUC -1.5		QUC won by 9 · covered	176.5	4 met · QUC 1 · KENN 3
Final	Stetson	59	@ North Florida	78		UNF -1.5		UNF won by 19 · covered	148.5	38 met · UNF 23 · STET 15
Final	Harvard	68	@ Brown	71		BRWN -2.5		BRWN won by 3 · covered	140.5	41 met · BRWN 15 · HARV 26
Final	Old Dominion	75	@ GA Southern	92	GASO Solid 66% ✓	GASO -4.5		GASO won by 17 · covered	152.5	4 met · GASO 1 · ODU 3
Final	Marshall	79	@ Georgia St	82		GAST -2.5		GAST won by 3 · covered	152.5	3 met · GAST 0 · MRSH 3
Final	Dartmouth	56	@ Yale	80	YALE Banker 96% ✓	YALE -19.5		YALE won by 24 · covered	132.5	41 met · YALE 34 · DART 7
Final	FGCU	59	@ Jacksonville	57		JAX -1.5		JAX lost by 2 · not covered	131.5	32 met · JAX 12 · FGCU 20
Final	Mount St Marys	56	@ Canisius	61		CAN -1.5		CAN won by 5 · covered	141.5	4 met · CAN 0 · MSM 4
Final	Fairfield	55	@ Marist	58		FAIR -1.5		FAIR lost by 3 · not covered	138.5	45 met · MRST 15 · FAIR 30
Final	Quinnipiac	82	@ Iona	64	IONA Solid 62% ✗	IONA -3.5		IONA lost by 18 · not covered	155.5	21 met · IONA 13 · QUIN 8
Final	Rider	71	@ Niagara	61		NIA -1.5		NIA lost by 10 · not covered	145.5	45 met · NIA 19 · RID 26
Final	Manhattan	70	@ Siena	68	MAN Solid 66% ✓	MAN -4.5		MAN won by 2 · not covered	135.5	50 met · SIE 29 · MAN 21
Final	North Alabama	82	@ C Arkansas	78	UNA Solid 66% ✓	UNA -4.5		UNA won by 4 · not covered	156.5	5 met · CARK 3 · UNA 2
Final	James Madison	86	@ Coastal	76	JMU Banker 91% ✓	JMU -14.5	CCU +14.5 · covers 53% ✓	JMU won by 10 · not covered	153.5	3 met · CCU 0 · JMU 3
Final	Bellarmine	87	@ Austin Peay	90	APSU Solid 75% ✓	APSU -7.5		APSU won by 3 · not covered	137.5	2 met · APSU 1 · BELL 1
Final	E Kentucky	67	@ Lipscomb	81	LIP Solid 62% ✓	LIP -3.5		LIP won by 14 · covered	162.5	4 met · LIP 2 · EKU 2
Final	UL Monroe	69	@ South Alabama	80	USA Solid 75% ✓	USA -7.5		USA won by 11 · covered	145.5	29 met · USA 16 · ULM 13
Final	Columbia	70	@ Princeton	84	PRIN Banker 89% ✓	PRIN -13.5	COLU +13.5 · covers 53% ✗	PRIN won by 14 · covered	144.5	41 met · PRIN 35 · COLU 6
Final	Cornell	87	@ Penn	81	COR Solid 66% ✓	COR -4.5		COR won by 6 · covered	157.5	41 met · PENN 30 · COR 11
Final	Troy	79	@ Texas St	82	TROY Solid 66% ✗	TROY -4.5		TROY lost by 3 · not covered	141.5	17 met · TXST 9 · TROY 8
Final	Southern Miss	61	@ Louisiana	77	UL Solid 78% ✓	UL -8.5		UL won by 16 · covered	148.5	6 met · UL 2 · USM 4
Final	21Dayton	72	@ Loyola Chicago	77		DAY -1.5		DAY lost by 5 · not covered	138.5	2 met · LUC 0 · DAY 2
Final	Fresno St	66	@ Nevada	74	NEV Banker 91% ✓	NEV -14.5	FRES +14.5 · covers 53% ✓	NEV won by 8 · not covered	135.5	45 met · NEV 31 · FRES 14
Final	Air Force	60	@ 22Utah State	72	USU Banker 94% ✓	USU -17.5	AF +17.5 · covers 53% ✓	USU won by 12 · not covered	137.5	21 met · USU 16 · AF 5