Thursday, February 22, 2024 64 games

Today: winner picks 40 of 50 right · line picks 4 of 7 right · total picks 0 of 1 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.

Time / Status	Away		Home		Pick	Line	Prediction	Line pick	Result	O/U	Total pick	Model total	Prev. meetings
Final	UMBC	56	@ Maine	62	ME Solid 66% ✓	ME -4.5			ME won by 6 · covered	150.5			40 met · ME 14 · UMBC 26
Final	C Arkansas	65	@ Bellarmine	68	BELL Solid 69% ✓	BELL -5.5			BELL won by 3 · not covered	143.5			4 met · BELL 3 · CARK 1
Final	Binghamton	80	@ UMass Lowell	87	UML Solid 78% ✓	UML -8.5			UML won by 7 · not covered	141.5			21 met · UML 13 · BING 8
Final	NC A&T	64	@ Stony Brook	80	STBK Banker 91% ✓	STBK -14.5		NCAT +14.5 · covers 53% ✗	STBK won by 16 · covered	135.5			3 met · STBK 2 · NCAT 1
Final	Liberty	71	@ FIU	76	LIB Solid 75% ✗	LIB -7.5			LIB lost by 5 · not covered	144.5			1 met · FIU 0 · LIB 1
Final	North Alabama	72	@ E Kentucky	75	EKU Solid 72% ✓	EKU -6.5			EKU won by 3 · not covered	154.5			5 met · EKU 3 · UNA 2
Final	Kennesaw St	74	@ FGCU	67		FGCU -2.5			FGCU lost by 7 · not covered	154.5			33 met · FGCU 22 · KENN 11
Final	Queens	83	@ Stetson	75	STET Solid 69% ✗	STET -5.5			STET lost by 8 · not covered	160.5			2 met · STET 1 · QUC 1
Final	Vermont	94	@ UAlbany	80	UVM Solid 84% ✓	UVM -11			UVM won by 14 · covered	143.5			50 met · UALB 14 · UVM 36
Final	NJIT	78	@ New Hampshire	83	UNH Solid 81% ✓	UNH -9.5			UNH won by 5 · not covered	143.5			8 met · UNH 4 · NJIT 4
Final	App State	82	@ Old Dominion	67	APP Solid 78% ✓	APP -8.5			APP won by 15 · covered	142.5			2 met · ODU 1 · APP 1
Final	Cleveland St	73	@ N Kentucky	75		NKU -2.5			NKU won by 2 · not covered	146.5			19 met · NKU 10 · CLE 9
Final	Oakland	63	@ Robert Morris	43	OAK Solid 66% ✓	OAK -4.5			OAK won by 20 · covered	147.5			10 met · RMU 2 · OAK 8
Final	Wright St	93	@ Detroit Mercy	78	WRST Solid 83% ✓	WRST -10.5			WRST won by 15 · covered	161.5			49 met · DETM 15 · WRST 34
Final	Saint Francis	60	@ Merrimack	71	MRMK Banker 91% ✓	MRMK -14.5		SFPA +14.5 · covers 53% ✓	MRMK won by 11 · not covered	134.5			8 met · MRMK 7 · SFPA 1
Final	C Connecticut	73	@ Wagner	72		WAG -0.5			WAG lost by 1 · not covered	125.5			43 met · WAG 27 · CCSU 16
Final	FDU	91	@ Sacred Heart	99	SHU Solid 62% ✓	SHU -3.5			SHU won by 8 · covered	157.5			38 met · SHU 23 · FDU 15
Final	Le Moyne	64	@ Long Island	76	LEM Solid 62% ✗	LEM -3.5			LEM lost by 12 · not covered	149.0			1 met · LIU 0 · LEM 1
Final	Rutgers	68	@ 3Purdue	96	PUR Banker 91% ✓	PUR -14.5		RUTG +14.5 · covers 53% ✗	PUR won by 28 · covered	139.5			16 met · PUR 11 · RUTG 5
Final	Charleston	90	@ Delaware	71		COFC -1.5			COFC won by 19 · covered	155.5			22 met · DEL 8 · COFC 14
Final	Drexel	57	@ Hofstra	69	HOF Solid 66% ✓	HOF -4.5			HOF won by 12 · covered	135.5			45 met · HOF 25 · DREX 20
Final	Elon	58	@ Northeastern	61	NE Solid 81% ✓	NE -9.5			NE won by 3 · not covered	143.5			19 met · NE 12 · ELON 7
Final	Hampton	72	@ Campbell	68	CAM Solid 81% ✗	CAM -9.5			CAM lost by 4 · not covered	148.5			10 met · CAM 7 · HAMP 3
Final	Monmouth	61	@ Towson	80	TOW Solid 75% ✓	TOW -7.5			TOW won by 19 · covered	137.5			4 met · TOW 2 · MONM 2
Final	UNC Wilmington	81	@ William & Mary	65	UNCW Solid 83% ✓	UNCW -10.5			UNCW won by 16 · covered	138.5			42 met · W&M 20 · UNCW 22
Final	Radford	90	@ Gardner-Webb	74	GWEB Solid 69% ✗	GWEB -5.5			GWEB lost by 16 · not covered	144.5			30 met · GWEB 18 · RAD 12
Final	SMU	70	@ FAU	80	FAU Solid 72% ✓	FAU -6.5			FAU won by 10 · covered	153.5			Never met
Final	E Washington	71	@ N Arizona	78	EWU Solid 81% ✗	EWU -9.5			EWU lost by 7 · not covered	158.5			46 met · NAU 14 · EWU 32
Final	Idaho	62	@ N Colorado	76	UNCO Solid 83% ✓	UNCO -10.5			UNCO won by 14 · covered	148.5			17 met · UNCO 12 · IDHO 5
Final	CA Baptist	65	@ Abilene Chrstn	71		ACU -2.5			ACU won by 6 · covered	135.5			4 met · ACU 2 · CBU 2
Final	Grand Canyon	74	@ Tarleton St	77	GCU Solid 66% ✗	GCU -4.5			GCU lost by 3 · not covered	143.5			5 met · TAR 1 · GCU 4
Final	UT Rio Grande	59	@ Utah Valley	70	UVU Banker 89% ✓	UVU -13.5		RGV +13.5 · covers 53% ✓	UVU won by 11 · not covered	149.5			35 met · UVU 30 · RGV 5
Final	Southern Utah	85	@ UT Arlington	90	UTA Solid 83% ✓	UTA -10.5			UTA won by 5 · not covered	155.5			2 met · UTA 1 · SUU 1
Final	St Thomas	50	@ N Dakota St	64		STMN -2.5			STMN lost by 14 · not covered	138.5			5 met · NDSU 3 · STMN 2
Final	Denver	70	@ S Dakota St	97	SDST Solid 81% ✓	SDST -9.5			SDST won by 27 · covered	165.5			27 met · SDST 21 · DEN 6
Final	Kansas City	82	@ South Dakota	78	KC Solid 62% ✓	KC -3.5			KC won by 4 · covered	142.5			17 met · SDAK 8 · KC 9
Final	Oral Roberts	70	@ Omaha	71	OMA Solid 66% ✓	OMA -4.5			OMA won by 1 · not covered	155.5			20 met · OMA 4 · ORU 16
Final	Texas St	76	@ GA Southern	84		GASO -2.5			GASO won by 8 · covered	140.5			12 met · GASO 7 · TXST 5
Final	South Alabama	83	@ Southern Miss	64	USM Solid 62% ✗	USM -3.5			USM lost by 19 · not covered	146.5			20 met · USM 10 · USA 10
Final	Little Rock	83	@ SE Missouri	61	LR Solid 75% ✓	LR -7.5			LR won by 22 · covered	149.5			4 met · SEMO 2 · LR 2
Final	Ohio State	79	@ Minnesota	88	MINN Solid 62% ✓	MINN -3.5			MINN won by 9 · covered	138.5			35 met · MINN 11 · OSU 24
Final	Louisiana	59	@ UL Monroe	66	UL Solid 72% ✗	UL -6.5			UL lost by 7 · not covered	143.5			36 met · ULM 11 · UL 25
Final	E Illinois	73	@ Tennessee St	78	TNST Solid 72% ✓	TNST -6.5			TNST won by 5 · not covered	136.5			36 met · TNST 23 · EIU 13
Final	UT Martin	106	@ Lindenwood	82	UTM Solid 81% ✓	UTM -9.5			UTM won by 24 · covered	151.5			3 met · LIN 1 · UTM 2
Final	Morehead St	78	@ W Illinois	57	MORE Solid 69% ✓	MORE -5.5			MORE won by 21 · covered	128.5			3 met · WIU 0 · MORE 3
Final	SIUE	78	@ Tennessee Tech	77	SIUE Solid 62% ✓	SIUE -3.5			SIUE won by 1 · not covered	140.5			21 met · TNTC 13 · SIUE 8
Final	Sacramento St	61	@ Montana	68	MONT Banker 89% ✓	MONT -13.5		SAC +13.5 · covers 53% ✓	MONT won by 7 · not covered	131.5			45 met · MONT 34 · SAC 11
Final	Portland St	67	@ Montana St	72		MTST -2.5			MTST won by 5 · covered	147.5			46 met · MTST 25 · PRST 21
Final	Sam Houston	79	@ New Mexico St	58		SHSU -1.5			SHSU won by 21 · covered	136.5			4 met · NMSU 0 · SHSU 4
Final	Louisiana Tech	65	@ UTEP	59		LT -1.5			LT won by 6 · covered	135.5			25 met · UTEP 11 · LT 14
Final	Troy	71	@ Arkansas St	79		ARST -1.5			ARST won by 8 · covered	154.5			29 met · ARST 12 · TROY 17
Final	Gonzaga	86	@ Portland	65	GONZ Banker 98% ✓	GONZ -22.5			GONZ won by 21 · not covered	163.5	OVER 163.5 · 52.3% (151) ✗		40 met · PORT 2 · GONZ 38
Final	Michigan	62	@ Northwestern	76	NU Banker 87% ✓	NU -12.5		MICH +12.5 · covers 53% ✗	NU won by 14 · covered	140.5			35 met · NU 9 · MICH 26
Final	Washington	84	@ Arizona St	82		WASH -2.5			WASH won by 2 · not covered	153.5			41 met · ASU 13 · WASH 28
Final	UC San Diego	77	@ UC Riverside	65	UCSD Solid 62% ✓	UCSD -3.5			UCSD won by 12 · covered	139.5			9 met · UCR 6 · UCSD 3
Final	Cal Poly	50	@ Fullerton	68	CSUF Solid 78% ✓	CSUF -8.5			CSUF won by 18 · covered	129.5			42 met · CSUF 25 · CP 17
Final	Bakersfield	66	@ Long Beach St	79	LBSU Solid 83% ✓	LBSU -10.5			LBSU won by 13 · covered	146.5			10 met · LBSU 6 · CSUB 4
Final	UC Davis	66	@ CSU Northridge	65		UCD -1.5			UCD won by 1 · not covered	150.5			40 met · CSUN 15 · UCD 25
Final	SF Austin	49	@ Seattle U	69	SEA Solid 72% ✓	SEA -6.5			SEA won by 20 · covered	135.5			3 met · SEA 1 · SFA 2
Final	Oregon St	73	@ California	81	CAL Solid 78% ✓	CAL -8.5			CAL won by 8 · not covered	139.5			43 met · CAL 29 · ORST 14
Final	Santa Barbara	69	@ UC Irvine	81	UCI Solid 83% ✓	UCI -10.5			UCI won by 12 · covered	142.5			48 met · UCI 25 · UCSB 23
Final	LMU	55	@ Santa Clara	65	SCU Solid 81% ✓	SCU -9.5			SCU won by 10 · covered	144.5			44 met · SCU 24 · LMU 20
Final	21Washington St	77	@ 4Arizona	74	ARIZ Banker 89% ✗	ARIZ -13.5		WSU +13.5 · covers 53% ✓	ARIZ lost by 3 · not covered	151.5			38 met · ARIZ 29 · WSU 9
Final	Oregon	78	@ Stanford	65		STAN -1.5			STAN lost by 13 · not covered	150.5			39 met · STAN 21 · ORE 18