Wednesday, February 21, 2024 45 games

Today: winner picks 26 of 36 right · line picks 1 of 2 right · total picks 1 of 1 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.

Time / Status	Away		Home		Pick	Line	Prediction	Line pick	Result	O/U	Total pick	Model total	Prev. meetings
Final	W Carolina	65	@ UNC Greensboro	71	UNCG Solid 62% ✓	UNCG -3.5			UNCG won by 6 · covered	140.5			46 met · UNCG 23 · WCU 23
Final	Lehigh	85	@ Army	54		LEH -2.5			LEH won by 31 · covered	129.5			47 met · ARMY 16 · LEH 31
Final	St Bonaventure	59	@ La Salle	72	SBU Solid 72% ✗	SBU -6.5			SBU lost by 13 · not covered	146.5			25 met · LAS 13 · SBU 12
Final	12Illinois	89	@ Penn State	90	ILL Solid 75% ✗	ILL -7.5			ILL lost by 1 · not covered	155.5			35 met · PSU 16 · ILL 19
Final	Presbyterian	78	@ Winthrop	55	WIN Solid 81% ✗	WIN -9.5			WIN lost by 23 · not covered	146.5			33 met · WIN 29 · PRES 4
Final	MTSU	68	@ Jax State	76	JXST Solid 69% ✓	JXST -5.5			JXST won by 8 · covered	131.5			1 met · JXST 0 · MTSU 1
Final	Coastal	71	@ Georgia St	72	GAST Solid 83% ✓	GAST -10.5			GAST won by 1 · not covered	149.5			16 met · GAST 7 · CCU 9
Final	James Madison	84	@ Marshall	58	JMU Solid 72% ✓	JMU -6.5			JMU won by 26 · covered	155.5			7 met · MRSH 2 · JMU 5
Final	Wofford	65	@ Chattanooga	81	UTC Solid 75% ✓	UTC -7.5			UTC won by 16 · covered	145.5			41 met · UTC 23 · WOF 18
Final	VMI	69	@ ETSU	82	ETSU Banker 96% ✓	ETSU -19.5			ETSU won by 13 · not covered	147.5			21 met · ETSU 19 · VMI 2
Final	The Citadel	78	@ Mercer	87	MER Solid 75% ✓	MER -7.5			MER won by 9 · covered	136.5			21 met · MER 16 · CIT 5
Final	Bucknell	59	@ Holy Cross	73		BUCK -2.5			BUCK lost by 14 · not covered	135.5			52 met · HC 20 · BUCK 32
Final	Navy	69	@ Loyola MD	62		L-MD -2			L-MD lost by 7 · not covered	131.0			26 met · L-MD 8 · NAVY 18
Final	G Washington	75	@ Saint Joseph's	79	JOES Banker 89% ✓	JOES -13.5		GW +13.5 · covers 53% ✓	JOES won by 4 · not covered	160.5			28 met · JOES 15 · GW 13
Final	Richmond	85	@ Rhode Island	77	RICH Solid 69% ✓	RICH -5.5			RICH won by 8 · covered	143.5			24 met · URI 9 · RICH 15
Final	16Dayton	67	@ George Mason	71	DAY Solid 62% ✗	DAY -3.5			DAY lost by 4 · not covered	133.5			15 met · GMU 5 · DAY 10
Final	24Florida	93	@ 13Alabama	98	ALA Solid 83% ✓	ALA -10.5			ALA won by 5 · not covered	173.5			29 met · ALA 7 · FLA 22
Final	Boston U	67	@ American	52	AMER Solid 69% ✗	AMER -5.5			AMER lost by 15 · not covered	127.5			21 met · AMER 9 · BU 12
Final	St John's	90	@ Georgetown	85	SJU Solid 81% ✓	SJU -9.5			SJU won by 5 · not covered	150.5			43 met · GTWN 24 · SJU 19
Final	Charleston So	63	@ SC Upstate	60	UPST Solid 69% ✗	UPST -5.5			UPST lost by 3 · not covered	141.5			13 met · UPST 6 · CHSO 7
Final	UNC Asheville	75	@ Longwood	80		LONG -1.5			LONG won by 5 · covered	149.5			21 met · LONG 5 · UNCA 16
Final	Oklahoma St	80	@ Cincinnati	76	CIN Solid 83% ✗	CIN -10.5			CIN lost by 4 · not covered	139.5			1 met · CIN 1 · OKST 0
Final	Clemson	81	@ Georgia Tech	57	CLEM Solid 75% ✓	CLEM -7.5			CLEM won by 24 · covered	147.5			46 met · GT 18 · CLEM 28
Final	Notre Dame	72	@ Louisville	50		LOU -2.5			LOU lost by 22 · not covered	137.5			25 met · LOU 14 · ND 11
Final	8Duke	84	@ Miami	55	DUKE Solid 72% ✓	DUKE -6.5			DUKE won by 29 · covered	148.5			30 met · MIA 9 · DUKE 21
Final	Furman	72	@ Samford	74	SAM Solid 75% ✓	SAM -7.5			SAM won by 2 · not covered	164.5			33 met · SAM 10 · FUR 23
Final	Providence	79	@ Xavier	75	XAV Solid 66% ✗	XAV -4.5			XAV lost by 4 · not covered	153.5			22 met · XAV 12 · PROV 10
Final	Belmont	69	@ Drake	84	DRKE Solid 83% ✓	DRKE -10.5			DRKE won by 15 · covered	155.5			4 met · DRKE 2 · BEL 2
Final	Northern Iowa	73	@ Illinois St	81		UNI -1.5			UNI lost by 8 · not covered	132.5			51 met · ILST 14 · UNI 37
Final	Bradley	86	@ Missouri St	62		BRAD -2.5			BRAD won by 24 · covered	143.5			44 met · MOST 26 · BRAD 18
Final	Murray St	68	@ S Illinois	72	SIU Solid 66% ✓	SIU -4.5			SIU won by 4 · not covered	134.5			16 met · SIU 10 · MUR 6
Final	Evansville	79	@ UIC	88	UIC Solid 62% ✓	UIC -3.5			UIC won by 9 · covered	144.5			8 met · UIC 6 · EVAN 2
Final	Indiana St	83	@ Valparaiso	64	INST Banker 91% ✓	INST -14.5		VAL +14.5 · covers 53% ✗	INST won by 19 · covered	159.5			19 met · VAL 10 · INST 9
Final	Charlotte	52	@ Memphis	76	MEM Solid 72% ✓	MEM -6.5			MEM won by 24 · covered	147.5			4 met · MEM 3 · CLT 1
Final	Rice	94	@ UAB	71	UAB Solid 85% ✗	UAB -11.5			UAB lost by 23 · not covered	148.5			23 met · UAB 20 · RICE 3
Final	South Florida	66	@ UTSA	61	USF Solid 72% ✓	USF -6.5			USF won by 5 · not covered	155.5			1 met · UTSA 0 · USF 1
Final	Georgia	76	@ Vanderbilt	64		UGA -1.5			UGA won by 12 · covered	144.5			37 met · VAN 23 · UGA 14
Final	Nebraska	85	@ Indiana	70		IU -1.5			IU lost by 15 · not covered	150.5			18 met · IU 11 · NEB 7
Final	Ole Miss	71	@ Mississippi St	83	MSST Solid 72% ✓	MSST -6.5			MSST won by 12 · covered	140.5			45 met · MSST 26 · MISS 19
Final	17Kentucky	74	@ LSU	75	UK Solid 69% ✗	UK -5.5			UK lost by 1 · not covered	162.5			28 met · LSU 7 · UK 21
Final	DePaul	71	@ 7Marquette	105	MARQ Banker 98% ✓	MARQ -27.5			MARQ won by 34 · covered	151.5	OVER 151.5 · 52.3% (176) ✓		39 met · MARQ 29 · DEP 10
Final	Tulsa	63	@ Wichita St	79	WICH Solid 72% ✓	WICH -6.5			WICH won by 16 · covered	146.5			25 met · WICH 20 · TLSA 5
Final	Pepperdine	89	@ Pacific	70	PEPP Solid 75% ✓	PEPP -7.5			PEPP won by 19 · covered	149.5			28 met · PAC 16 · PEPP 12
Final	22Colorado St	66	@ New Mexico	68	UNM Solid 78% ✓	UNM -8.5			UNM won by 2 · not covered	156.5			41 met · UNM 26 · CSU 15
Final	UNLV	72	@ Air Force	43	UNLV Solid 72% ✓	UNLV -6.5			UNLV won by 29 · covered	131.5			47 met · AF 15 · UNLV 32