Tuesday, February 20, 2024 26 games

Today: winner picks 15 of 20 right · line picks 3 of 5 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.

Time / Status	Away		Home		Pick	Line	Prediction	Line pick	Result	O/U	Total pick	Model total	Prev. meetings
Final	Butler	62	@ Villanova	72	VILL Solid 72% ✓	VILL -6.5			VILL won by 10 · covered	138.5			22 met · VILL 15 · BTLR 7
Final	E Michigan	69	@ Buffalo	78	BUF Solid 62% ✓	BUF -3.5			BUF won by 9 · covered	144.5			28 met · BUF 19 · EMU 9
Final	Bowling Green	60	@ C Michigan	62		CMU -1.5			CMU won by 2 · covered	138.5			31 met · CMU 18 · BGSU 13
Final	Miami OH	58	@ W Michigan	77	M-OH Solid 62% ✗	M-OH -3.5			M-OH lost by 19 · not covered	142.5			28 met · WMU 16 · M-OH 12
Final	Kent State	57	@ Ohio	63	OHIO Solid 66% ✓	OHIO -4.5			OHIO won by 6 · covered	147.5			49 met · OHIO 19 · KENT 30
Final	Akron	64	@ Toledo	72		TOL -2.5			TOL won by 8 · covered	150.5			30 met · TOL 16 · AKR 14
Final	VCU	52	@ UMass	74		MASS -2			MASS won by 22 · covered	143.5			12 met · MASS 3 · VCU 9
Final	Saint Louis	66	@ Duquesne	81	DUQ Solid 81% ✓	DUQ -9.5			DUQ won by 15 · covered	151.5			31 met · DUQ 14 · SLU 17
Final	Fordham	53	@ Davidson	68	DAV Solid 72% ✓	DAV -6.5			DAV won by 15 · covered	136.5			17 met · DAV 14 · FOR 3
Final	5Tennessee	72	@ Missouri	67	TENN Banker 87% ✓	TENN -12.5		MIZ +12.5 · covers 53% ✓	TENN won by 5 · not covered	148.5			15 met · MIZ 6 · TENN 9
Final	Arkansas	78	@ Texas A&M	71	TA&M Banker 87% ✗	TA&M -12.5		ARK +12.5 · covers 53% ✓	TA&M lost by 7 · not covered	145.5			23 met · TA&M 11 · ARK 12
Final	Iowa	78	@ Michigan St	71	MSU Solid 81% ✗	MSU -9.5			MSU lost by 7 · not covered	154.5			38 met · MSU 25 · IOWA 13
Final	UCF	67	@ West Virginia	77		UCF -2.5			UCF lost by 10 · not covered	144.5			2 met · WVU 1 · UCF 1
Final	Boston College	76	@ Florida St	84	FSU Solid 66% ✓	FSU -4.5			FSU won by 8 · covered	149.5			23 met · FSU 14 · BC 9
Final	Syracuse	87	@ NC State	83	NCSU Solid 72% ✗	NCSU -6.5			NCSU lost by 4 · not covered	152.5			16 met · NCSU 5 · SYR 11
Final	S Indiana	80	@ Morehead St	73	MORE Banker 92% ✗	MORE -15.5		USI +15.5 · covers 53% ✓	MORE lost by 7 · not covered	138.5			3 met · MORE 3 · USI 0
Final	Ball State	70	@ N Illinois	63		NIU -0.5			NIU lost by 7 · not covered	145.5			43 met · NIU 16 · BALL 27
Final	1UConn	66	@ 15Creighton	85		CONN -2.5			CONN lost by 19 · not covered	144.5			8 met · CREI 6 · CONN 2
Final	19San Diego St	63	@ Utah State	68	USU Solid 62% ✓	USU -3.5			USU won by 5 · covered	145.5			25 met · USU 6 · SDSU 19
Final	Maryland	70	@ Wisconsin	74	WIS Solid 75% ✓	WIS -7.5			WIS won by 4 · not covered	131.5			17 met · WIS 10 · MD 7
Final	TCU	81	@ 23Texas Tech	82	TTU Solid 69% ✓	TTU -5.5			TTU won by 1 · not covered	146.5			33 met · TTU 20 · TCU 13
Final	11Baylor	71	@ 25BYU	78	BYU Solid 62% ✓	BYU -3.5			BYU won by 7 · covered	153.5			4 met · BYU 0 · BAY 4
Final	Pitt	58	@ Wake Forest	91	WAKE Solid 69% ✓	WAKE -5.5			WAKE won by 33 · covered	145.5			14 met · WAKE 7 · PITT 7
Final	San José St	50	@ Boise St	82	BOIS Banker 93% ✓	BOIS -16.5		SJSU +16.5 · covers 53% ✗	BOIS won by 32 · covered	141.5			37 met · BOIS 34 · SJSU 3
Final	San Francisco	66	@ 18Saint Mary's	70	SMC Solid 75% ✓	SMC -7.5			SMC won by 4 · not covered	133.5			43 met · SMC 38 · SF 5
Final	Wyoming	58	@ Nevada	76	NEV Banker 89% ✓	NEV -13.5		WYO +13.5 · covers 53% ✗	NEV won by 18 · covered	145.5			22 met · NEV 8 · WYO 14