Monday, February 19, 2024 20 games

Today: winner picks 13 of 15 right · line picks 3 of 3 right · total picks 1 of 1 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.

Time / Status	Away		Home		Pick	Line	Prediction	Line pick	Result	O/U	Total pick	Model total	Prev. meetings
Final	IU Northwest	70	@ Chicago St	93	CHST Banker 98% ✓	CHST -28.5			CHST won by 23 · not covered	143.5	OVER 143.5 · 52.3% (163) ✓		2 met · CHST 2 · IUN 0
Final	Colgate	67	@ Lafayette	62	COLG Solid 78% ✓	COLG -8.5			COLG won by 5 · not covered	132.5			48 met · LAF 24 · COLG 24
Final	Lamar	77	@ SE Louisiana	72	SELA Solid 66% ✗	SELA -4.5			SELA lost by 5 · not covered	143.5			33 met · SELA 19 · LAM 14
Final	Virginia	41	@ Virginia Tech	75	VT Solid 62% ✓	VT -3.5			VT won by 34 · covered	127.5			41 met · VT 15 · UVA 26
Final	Nicholls	89	@ LSU N Orleans	77		NICH -1.5			NICH won by 12 · covered	149.5			26 met · NOLA 9 · NICH 17
Final	East Texas A&M	76	@ Incarnate Word	72		UIW -1.5			UIW lost by 4 · not covered	141.5			3 met · UIW 1 · ETAM 2
Final	Morgan St	58	@ Delaware St	80	DSU Solid 66% ✓	DSU -4.5			DSU won by 22 · covered	145.5			44 met · DSU 15 · MORG 29
Final	SC State	75	@ Howard	68	HOW Solid 78% ✗	HOW -8.5			HOW lost by 7 · not covered	147.5			29 met · HOW 12 · SCST 17
Final	N'Western St	61	@ Texas A&M-CC	72	AMCC Banker 92% ✓	AMCC -15.5		NWST +15.5 · covers 53% ✓	AMCC won by 11 · not covered	138.5			24 met · AMCC 17 · NWST 7
Final	Coppin St	67	@ MD Eastern	75	UMES Solid 72% ✓	UMES -6.5			UMES won by 8 · covered	122.5			36 met · UMES 14 · COPP 22
Final	William & Mary	57	@ Charleston	65	COFC Banker 93% ✓	COFC -16.5		W&M +16.5 · covers 53% ✓	COFC won by 8 · not covered	148.5			20 met · COFC 11 · W&M 9
Final	Bethune	60	@ Jackson St	61	JKST Solid 72% ✓	JKST -6.5			JKST won by 1 · not covered	147.5			5 met · JKST 3 · BCU 2
Final	Grambling	83	@ Prairie View	74		PV -1.5			PV lost by 9 · not covered	136.5			45 met · PV 30 · GRAM 15
Final	Florida A&M	68	@ Alcorn St	79	ALCN Solid 83% ✓	ALCN -10.5			ALCN won by 11 · covered	139.5			6 met · ALCN 4 · FAMU 2
Final	AR-Pine Bluff	67	@ Alabama A&M	75		AAMU -2.5			AAMU won by 8 · covered	152.5			47 met · AAMU 21 · UAPB 26
Final	Miss Valley St	46	@ Alabama St	61	ALST Banker 92% ✓	ALST -15.5		MVSU +15.5 · covers 53% ✓	ALST won by 15 · not covered	131.5			45 met · ALST 27 · MVSU 18
Final	Southern	56	@ Texas Southern	68		TXSO -2.5			TXSO won by 12 · covered	136.5			45 met · TXSO 28 · SOU 17
Final	NC Central	74	@ Norfolk St	80	NORF Solid 72% ✓	NORF -6.5			NORF won by 6 · not covered	135.5			21 met · NORF 9 · NCCU 12
Final	6Iowa State	65	@ 2Houston	73	HOU Solid 78% ✓	HOU -8.5			HOU won by 8 · not covered	132.5			3 met · HOU 0 · ISU 3
Final	Kansas St	56	@ Texas	62	TEX Solid 78% ✓	TEX -8.5			TEX won by 6 · not covered	139.5			35 met · TEX 18 · KSU 17