Sunday, February 18, 2024 22 games

Today: winner picks 10 of 16 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.

Time / Status	Away		Home		Pick	Line	Prediction	Line pick	Result	O/U	Total pick	Model total	Prev. meetings
Final	Loyola Chicago	77	@ Rhode Island	67	LUC Solid 69% ✓	LUC -5.5			LUC won by 10 · covered	148.5			1 met · URI 1 · LUC 0
Final	Wichita St	61	@ Charlotte	72	CLT Solid 72% ✓	CLT -6.5			CLT won by 11 · covered	135.5			Never met
Final	24FAU	86	@ South Florida	90	FAU Solid 69% ✗	FAU -5.5			FAU lost by 4 · not covered	148.5			9 met · USF 7 · FAU 2
Final	Saint Peter's	59	@ Iona	53	IONA Solid 72% ✗	IONA -6.5			IONA lost by 6 · not covered	132.5			47 met · IONA 32 · SPU 15
Final	2Purdue	69	@ Ohio State	73	PUR Solid 75% ✗	PUR -7.5			PUR lost by 4 · not covered	147.5			39 met · OSU 22 · PUR 17
Final	Chattanooga	65	@ Furman	82		FUR -2.5			FUR won by 17 · covered	155.5			40 met · FUR 23 · UTC 17
Final	Canisius	73	@ Siena	64	CAN Solid 69% ✓	CAN -5.5			CAN won by 9 · covered	136.5			45 met · SIE 24 · CAN 21
Final	Mount St Marys	80	@ Fairfield	94	FAIR Solid 66% ✓	FAIR -4.5			FAIR won by 14 · covered	147.5			2 met · FAIR 2 · MSM 0
Final	Niagara	80	@ Quinnipiac	66	QUIN Solid 78% ✗	QUIN -8.5			QUIN lost by 14 · not covered	152.5			25 met · QUIN 14 · NIA 11
Final	Rider	104	@ Manhattan	62	RID Solid 62% ✓	RID -3.5			RID won by 42 · covered	142.5			45 met · MAN 16 · RID 29
Final	Belmont	75	@ UIC	60		BEL -2.5			BEL won by 15 · covered	153.5			3 met · UIC 0 · BEL 3
Final	Murray St	72	@ Drake	95	DRKE Solid 81% ✓	DRKE -9.5			DRKE won by 23 · covered	142.5			5 met · DRKE 4 · MUR 1
Final	Bradley	63	@ Northern Iowa	74		BRAD -2.5			BRAD lost by 11 · not covered	140.5			50 met · UNI 29 · BRAD 21
Final	Tulane	67	@ East Carolina	81		ECU -2.5			ECU won by 14 · covered	150.5			35 met · ECU 18 · TULN 17
Final	UTSA	77	@ Temple	83	TEM Solid 72% ✓	TEM -6.5			TEM won by 6 · not covered	153.5			Never met
Final	Northwestern	76	@ Indiana	72		IU -2.5			IU lost by 4 · not covered	137.5			35 met · IU 18 · NU 17
Final	Evansville	79	@ Illinois St	86	ILST Solid 62% ✓	ILST -3.5			ILST won by 7 · covered	135.5			48 met · ILST 32 · EVAN 16
Final	North Texas	62	@ UAB	71		UAB -2.5			UAB won by 9 · covered	131.5			16 met · UAB 8 · UNT 8
Final	Memphis	79	@ SMU	106	SMU Solid 69% ✓	SMU -5.5			SMU won by 27 · covered	156.5			32 met · SMU 14 · MEM 18
Final	Seton Hall	68	@ St John's	62	SJU Solid 72% ✗	SJU -6.5			SJU lost by 6 · not covered	144.5			36 met · SJU 12 · HALL 24
Final	Rutgers	70	@ Minnesota	81	MINN Solid 69% ✓	MINN -5.5			MINN won by 11 · covered	132.5			15 met · MINN 8 · RUTG 7
Final	Utah	70	@ UCLA	69	UCLA Solid 66% ✗	UCLA -4.5			UCLA lost by 1 · not covered	134.5			20 met · UCLA 13 · UTAH 7