Thursday, February 15, 2024 67 games

Today: winner picks 41 of 51 right · line picks 2 of 5 right · total picks 0 of 1 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.

Time / Status	Away		Home		Pick	Line	Prediction	Line pick	Result	O/U	Total pick	Model total	Prev. meetings
Final	UMBC	89	@ Binghamton	78	BING Solid 66% ✗	BING -4.5			BING lost by 11 · not covered	155.5			44 met · BING 20 · UMBC 24
Final	Marshall	58	@ App State	73	APP Solid 83% ✓	APP -10.5			APP won by 15 · covered	149.5			5 met · APP 2 · MRSH 3
Final	Northwestern	60	@ Rutgers	63	RUTG Solid 62% ✓	RUTG -3.5			RUTG won by 3 · not covered	129.5			15 met · RUTG 7 · NU 8
Final	Hampton	73	@ Stony Brook	93	STBK Solid 85% ✓	STBK -11.5			STBK won by 20 · covered	148.5			2 met · STBK 2 · HAMP 0
Final	UTEP	80	@ Western KY	90	WKU Solid 72% ✓	WKU -6.5			WKU won by 10 · covered	153.5			10 met · WKU 8 · UTEP 2
Final	Jax State	58	@ Louisiana Tech	63	LT Solid 83% ✓	LT -10.5			LT won by 5 · not covered	130.5			1 met · LT 1 · JXST 0
Final	NJIT	58	@ UAlbany	83	UALB Solid 62% ✓	UALB -3.5			UALB won by 25 · covered	150.5			13 met · UALB 12 · NJIT 1
Final	Maine	72	@ Bryant	77	BRY Solid 72% ✓	BRY -6.5			BRY won by 5 · not covered	145.5			3 met · BRY 1 · ME 2
Final	New Hampshire	54	@ Vermont	70	UVM Solid 83% ✓	UVM -10.5			UVM won by 16 · covered	140.5			46 met · UVM 40 · UNH 6
Final	GA Southern	75	@ Coastal	82		CCU -0.5			CCU won by 7 · covered	152.5			17 met · CCU 7 · GASO 10
Final	Louisiana	68	@ Old Dominion	60	UL Solid 66% ✓	UL -4.5			UL won by 8 · covered	148.5			1 met · ODU 1 · UL 0
Final	Wagner	65	@ Saint Francis	63	WAG Solid 62% ✓	WAG -3.5			WAG won by 2 · not covered	125.5			42 met · SFPA 13 · WAG 29
Final	Merrimack	66	@ Stonehill	63	MRMK Solid 83% ✓	MRMK -10.5			MRMK won by 3 · not covered	131.5			3 met · STO 0 · MRMK 3
Final	FDU	84	@ Long Island	82	FDU Solid 62% ✓	FDU -3.5			FDU won by 2 · not covered	156.5			42 met · LIU 20 · FDU 22
Final	C Connecticut	64	@ Le Moyne	69		CCSU -2.5			CCSU lost by 5 · not covered	143.5			1 met · LEM 1 · CCSU 0
Final	Campbell	87	@ Monmouth	88	MONM Solid 69% ✓	MONM -5.5			MONM won by 1 · not covered	145.5			Never met
Final	Charleston	77	@ Northeastern	73	COFC Solid 66% ✓	COFC -4.5			COFC won by 4 · not covered	153.5			22 met · NE 11 · COFC 11
Final	Delaware	67	@ Elon	73	DEL Solid 75% ✗	DEL -7.5			DEL lost by 6 · not covered	148.5			19 met · ELON 7 · DEL 12
Final	Hofstra	77	@ Drexel	79	DREX Solid 62% ✓	DREX -3.5			DREX won by 2 · not covered	132.5			44 met · DREX 19 · HOF 25
Final	NC A&T	54	@ UNC Wilmington	73	UNCW Banker 98% ✓	UNCW -22.5			UNCW won by 19 · not covered	139.5	OVER 139.5 · 52.3% (127) ✗		3 met · UNCW 2 · NCAT 1
Final	Towson	61	@ William & Mary	52	TOW Solid 78% ✓	TOW -8.5			TOW won by 9 · covered	128.5			40 met · W&M 21 · TOW 19
Final	UTSA	70	@ Charlotte	79	CLT Banker 89% ✓	CLT -13.5		UTSA +13.5 · covers 53% ✓	CLT won by 9 · not covered	146.5			12 met · CLT 7 · UTSA 5
Final	Wichita St	55	@ East Carolina	68		ECU -1.5			ECU won by 13 · covered	138.5			9 met · ECU 2 · WICH 7
Final	Temple	68	@ 24FAU	80	FAU Banker 96% ✓	FAU -19.5			FAU won by 12 · not covered	148.5			Never met
Final	SMU	87	@ Tulane	79		SMU -1.5			SMU won by 8 · covered	159.5			27 met · TULN 9 · SMU 18
Final	New Mexico St	69	@ MTSU	76	MTSU Solid 62% ✓	MTSU -3.5			MTSU won by 7 · covered	133.5			5 met · MTSU 3 · NMSU 2
Final	FIU	56	@ Sam Houston	70	SHSU Solid 75% ✓	SHSU -7.5			SHSU won by 14 · covered	148.5			4 met · SHSU 2 · FIU 2
Final	Abilene Chrstn	87	@ UT Rio Grande	79		ACU -2.5			ACU won by 8 · covered	151.5			4 met · RGV 1 · ACU 3
Final	Tarleton St	80	@ UT Arlington	78	UTA Solid 66% ✗	UTA -4.5			UTA lost by 2 · not covered	142.5			3 met · UTA 0 · TAR 3
Final	N Dakota St	73	@ Oral Roberts	60	ORU Solid 66% ✗	ORU -4.5			ORU lost by 13 · not covered	147.5			37 met · ORU 17 · NDSU 20
Final	S Dakota St	67	@ Kansas City	72	SDST Solid 62% ✗	SDST -3.5			SDST lost by 5 · not covered	140.5			28 met · KC 6 · SDST 22
Final	South Dakota	84	@ Omaha	91	OMA Solid 78% ✓	OMA -8.5			OMA won by 7 · not covered	154.5			25 met · OMA 10 · SDAK 15
Final	Georgia St	63	@ James Madison	83	JMU Banker 91% ✓	JMU -14.5		GAST +14.5 · covers 53% ✗	JMU won by 20 · covered	154.5			14 met · JMU 6 · GAST 8
Final	Texas St	55	@ South Alabama	72		USA -2.5			USA won by 17 · covered	136.5			16 met · USA 5 · TXST 11
Final	Morehead St	68	@ Little Rock	69		MORE -1.5			MORE lost by 1 · not covered	140.5			2 met · LR 1 · MORE 1
Final	Winthrop	85	@ Radford	69		WIN -1.5			WIN won by 16 · covered	142.5			46 met · RAD 19 · WIN 27
Final	Memphis	66	@ North Texas	76		UNT -1.5			UNT won by 10 · covered	135.5			1 met · UNT 0 · MEM 1
Final	Seattle U	78	@ Southern Utah	68	SEA Solid 66% ✓	SEA -4.5			SEA won by 10 · covered	148.5			4 met · SUU 1 · SEA 3
Final	Austin Peay	77	@ C Arkansas	67	APSU Solid 62% ✓	APSU -3.5			APSU won by 10 · covered	141.5			3 met · CARK 1 · APSU 2
Final	Arkansas St	82	@ Troy	71	TROY Solid 72% ✗	TROY -6.5			TROY lost by 11 · not covered	153.5			28 met · TROY 17 · ARST 11
Final	UL Monroe	68	@ Southern Miss	59	USM Solid 75% ✗	USM -7.5			USM lost by 9 · not covered	141.5			5 met · USM 4 · ULM 1
Final	SE Missouri	57	@ E Illinois	75	EIU Solid 69% ✓	EIU -5.5			EIU won by 18 · covered	136.5			44 met · EIU 18 · SEMO 26
Final	Lindenwood	63	@ SIUE	91	SIUE Solid 83% ✓	SIUE -10.5			SIUE won by 28 · covered	131.5			4 met · SIUE 4 · LIN 0
Final	S Indiana	68	@ UT Martin	77	UTM Solid 78% ✓	UTM -8.5			UTM won by 9 · covered	154.5			2 met · UTM 1 · USI 1
Final	W Illinois	62	@ Tennessee Tech	55	WIU Solid 62% ✓	WIU -3.5			WIU won by 7 · covered	128.5			Never met
Final	Minnesota	76	@ 2Purdue	84	PUR Banker 93% ✓	PUR -16.5		MINN +16.5 · covers 53% ✓	PUR won by 8 · not covered	145.5			36 met · PUR 22 · MINN 14
Final	Lipscomb	70	@ North Alabama	75		LIP -1.5			LIP lost by 5 · not covered	157.5			10 met · UNA 3 · LIP 7
Final	Idaho St	82	@ E Washington	88	EWU Solid 81% ✓	EWU -9.5			EWU won by 6 · not covered	144.5			43 met · EWU 31 · IDST 12
Final	Weber St	70	@ Idaho	69	WEB Solid 75% ✓	WEB -7.5			WEB won by 1 · not covered	138.5			17 met · IDHO 5 · WEB 12
Final	N Arizona	73	@ Sacramento St	58	SAC Solid 62% ✗	SAC -3.5			SAC lost by 15 · not covered	130.5			42 met · SAC 13 · NAU 29
Final	Long Beach St	78	@ UC Davis	74	UCD Solid 66% ✗	UCD -4.5			UCD lost by 4 · not covered	154.5			39 met · UCD 13 · LBSU 26
Final	Utah Tech	61	@ Grand Canyon	73	GCU Banker 96% ✓	GCU -19.5			GCU won by 12 · not covered	150.5			7 met · GCU 6 · UTU 1
Final	North Dakota	92	@ Denver	78	DEN Solid 66% ✗	DEN -4.5			DEN lost by 14 · not covered	159.5			12 met · DEN 4 · UND 8
Final	Gonzaga	91	@ LMU	74	GONZ Banker 92% ✓	GONZ -15.5		LMU +15.5 · covers 53% ✗	GONZ won by 17 · covered	151.5			45 met · LMU 4 · GONZ 41
Final	Colorado	60	@ UCLA	64		COLO -1.5			COLO lost by 4 · not covered	136.5			21 met · UCLA 15 · COLO 6
Final	Stanford	65	@ Washington	85	WASH Solid 66% ✓	WASH -4.5			WASH won by 20 · covered	159.5			45 met · WASH 22 · STAN 23
Final	N Colorado	72	@ Portland St	82		UNCO -2.5			UNCO lost by 10 · not covered	153.5			36 met · PRST 19 · UNCO 17
Final	UC Riverside	81	@ Fullerton	73		UCR -1.5			UCR won by 8 · covered	134.5			42 met · CSUF 26 · UCR 16
Final	Santa Barbara	46	@ UC San Diego	61	UCSD Solid 69% ✓	UCSD -5.5			UCSD won by 15 · covered	144.5			7 met · UCSD 2 · UCSB 5
Final	CSU Northridge	76	@ Bakersfield	71		CSUN -2.5			CSUN won by 5 · covered	143.5			16 met · CSUB 9 · CSUN 7
Final	Hawai'i	80	@ Cal Poly	51	HAW Solid 78% ✓	HAW -8.5			HAW won by 29 · covered	130.0			25 met · CP 9 · HAW 16
Final	Utah Valley	69	@ CA Baptist	46		CBU -2.5			CBU lost by 23 · not covered	133.5			11 met · CBU 3 · UVU 8
Final	Portland	66	@ San Diego	71	USD Solid 72% ✓	USD -6.5			USD won by 5 · not covered	155.5			47 met · USD 29 · PORT 18
Final	Pacific	53	@ Santa Clara	79	SCU Banker 93% ✓	SCU -16.5		PAC +16.5 · covers 53% ✗	SCU won by 26 · covered	148.5			34 met · SCU 22 · PAC 12
Final	California	65	@ Washington St	84	WSU Solid 81% ✓	WSU -9.5			WSU won by 19 · covered	138.5			42 met · WSU 19 · CAL 23
Final	Pepperdine	59	@ 18Saint Mary's	103	SMC Banker 95% ✓	SMC -18.5			SMC won by 44 · covered	133.5			46 met · SMC 38 · PEPP 8
Final	Utah	64	@ USC	68		USC -1.5			USC won by 4 · covered	150.5			23 met · USC 11 · UTAH 12