Wednesday, February 14, 2024 39 games

Today: winner picks 29 of 34 right · line picks 2 of 2 right · total picks 1 of 2 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.

Time / Status	Away		Home		Pick	Line	Prediction	Line pick	Result	O/U	Total pick	Model total	Prev. meetings
Final	Boston U	50	@ Army	65		BU -1.5			BU lost by 15 · not covered	123.5			25 met · ARMY 12 · BU 13
Final	Robert Morris	77	@ Youngstown St	87	YSU Solid 83% ✓	YSU -10.5			YSU won by 10 · not covered	147.5			21 met · YSU 10 · RMU 11
Final	Michigan St	80	@ Penn State	72	MSU Solid 62% ✓	MSU -3.5			MSU won by 8 · covered	143.5			34 met · PSU 7 · MSU 27
Final	Presbyterian	69	@ UNC Asheville	71	UNCA Solid 83% ✓	UNCA -10.5			UNCA won by 2 · not covered	147.5			28 met · UNCA 21 · PRES 7
Final	Jacksonville	61	@ Kennesaw St	66	KENN Solid 69% ✓	KENN -5.5			KENN won by 5 · not covered	150.5			37 met · KENN 12 · JAX 25
Final	North Florida	93	@ Queens	79		QUC -2.5			QUC lost by 14 · not covered	164.5			2 met · QUC 0 · UNF 2
Final	Oakland	71	@ Purdue FW	63		PFW -1.5			PFW lost by 8 · not covered	150.5			25 met · PFW 9 · OAK 16
Final	Milwaukee	71	@ Cleveland St	68	CLE Solid 66% ✗	CLE -4.5			CLE lost by 3 · not covered	156.5			46 met · CLE 18 · MILW 28
Final	IU Indy	66	@ Detroit Mercy	81	DETM Solid 69% ✓	DETM -5.5			DETM won by 15 · covered	144.5			10 met · DETM 7 · IUIN 3
Final	N Kentucky	58	@ Green Bay	57	GB Solid 62% ✗	GB -3.5			GB lost by 1 · not covered	137.5			18 met · GB 5 · NKU 13
Final	ETSU	71	@ Chattanooga	84	UTC Solid 75% ✓	UTC -7.5			UTC won by 13 · covered	139.5			36 met · UTC 17 · ETSU 19
Final	UNC Greensboro	76	@ The Citadel	61	UNCG Solid 69% ✓	UNCG -5.5			UNCG won by 15 · covered	135.5			38 met · CIT 5 · UNCG 33
Final	Wofford	73	@ Mercer	60		MER -2.5			MER lost by 13 · not covered	138.5			21 met · MER 7 · WOF 14
Final	VMI	62	@ Furman	75	FUR Banker 98% ✓	FUR -23.5			FUR won by 13 · not covered	166.5	OVER 166.5 · 52.3% (137) ✗		21 met · FUR 15 · VMI 6
Final	Loyola MD	79	@ Lafayette	64	LAF Solid 79% ✗	LAF -9			LAF lost by 15 · not covered	127.5			27 met · LAF 15 · L-MD 12
Final	St Bonaventure	85	@ Fordham	67	SBU Solid 66% ✓	SBU -4.5			SBU won by 18 · covered	139.5			34 met · FOR 13 · SBU 21
Final	UMass	69	@ Richmond	59	RICH Solid 71% ✗	RICH -6			RICH lost by 10 · not covered	144.0			23 met · RICH 15 · MASS 8
Final	American	59	@ Navy	42		NAVY -2.5			NAVY lost by 17 · not covered	129.5			50 met · NAVY 19 · AMER 31
Final	Holy Cross	55	@ Colgate	85	COLG Banker 95% ✓	COLG -18.5			COLG won by 30 · covered	139.5			46 met · COLG 24 · HC 22
Final	Xavier	70	@ Seton Hall	88	HALL Solid 62% ✓	HALL -3.5			HALL won by 18 · covered	146.5			22 met · HALL 11 · XAV 11
Final	Chicago St	73	@ E Kentucky	86	EKU Solid 83% ✓	EKU -10.5			EKU won by 13 · covered	142.5			2 met · EKU 2 · CHST 0
Final	Gardner-Webb	85	@ Charleston So	77	GWEB Solid 66% ✓	GWEB -4.5			GWEB won by 8 · covered	143.5			33 met · CHSO 9 · GWEB 24
Final	SC Upstate	86	@ High Point	81	HPU Banker 89% ✗	HPU -13.5		UPST +13.5 · covers 53% ✓	HPU lost by 5 · not covered	150.5			11 met · HPU 7 · UPST 4
Final	Tulsa	50	@ South Florida	69	USF Solid 75% ✓	USF -7.5			USF won by 19 · covered	148.5			14 met · USF 2 · TLSA 12
Final	Miami	60	@ Clemson	77	CLEM Solid 75% ✓	CLEM -7.5			CLEM won by 17 · covered	152.5			28 met · CLEM 12 · MIA 16
Final	Georgia Tech	55	@ Notre Dame	58	ND Solid 62% ✓	ND -3.5			ND won by 3 · not covered	133.5			22 met · ND 14 · GT 8
Final	S Illinois	68	@ Belmont	82	BEL Solid 62% ✓	BEL -3.5			BEL won by 14 · covered	146.5			2 met · BEL 0 · SIU 2
Final	Saint Joseph's	59	@ Loyola Chicago	64	LUC Solid 62% ✓	LUC -3.5			LUC won by 5 · covered	151.5			7 met · LUC 2 · JOES 5
Final	UIC	73	@ Bradley	85	BRAD Banker 91% ✓	BRAD -14.5		UIC +14.5 · covers 53% ✓	BRAD won by 12 · not covered	140.5			10 met · BRAD 8 · UIC 2
Final	Missouri St	72	@ Murray St	82	MUR Solid 62% ✓	MUR -3.5			MUR won by 10 · covered	136.5			7 met · MUR 4 · MOST 3
Final	Northern Iowa	86	@ Valparaiso	67	UNI Solid 75% ✓	UNI -7.5			UNI won by 19 · covered	143.5			13 met · VAL 3 · UNI 10
Final	11South Carolina	61	@ 13Auburn	101	AUB Solid 85% ✓	AUB -11.5			AUB won by 40 · covered	136.5			26 met · AUB 16 · SC 10
Final	Iowa	66	@ Maryland	78	MD Solid 69% ✓	MD -5.5			MD won by 12 · covered	147.5			14 met · MD 6 · IOWA 8
Final	W Carolina	62	@ Samford	88	SAM Solid 75% ✓	SAM -7.5			SAM won by 26 · covered	154.5			30 met · SAM 17 · WCU 13
Final	8Tennessee	92	@ Arkansas	63	TENN Solid 78% ✓	TENN -8.5			TENN won by 29 · covered	150.5			30 met · ARK 13 · TENN 17
Final	1UConn	101	@ DePaul	65	CONN Banker 98% ✓	CONN -24.5			CONN won by 36 · covered	140.5	OVER 140.5 · 52.3% (166) ✓		19 met · DEP 1 · CONN 18
Final	Oregon St	61	@ Arizona St	79	ASU Solid 72% ✓	ASU -6.5			ASU won by 18 · covered	136.5			41 met · ASU 29 · ORST 12
Final	Utah State	84	@ Wyoming	76	USU Solid 75% ✓	USU -7.5			USU won by 8 · covered	149.5			23 met · WYO 9 · USU 14
Final	UNLV	67	@ Fresno St	65	UNLV Solid 66% ✓	UNLV -4.5			UNLV won by 2 · not covered	137.5			23 met · FRES 13 · UNLV 10