Monday, February 12, 2024 16 games
Today: winner picks 7 of 9 right · line picks 0 of 1 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.
| Time / Status | Away | Home | Pick | Line | Prediction | Line pick | Result | O/U | Total pick | Model total | Prev. meetings | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final |  Alabama St
|
62 | @  Southern
|
73 | SOU Solid 66% ✓ | SOU -4.5 | SOU won by 11 · covered | 136.5 | 47 met · SOU 22 · ALST 25 | ||||
| Final |  Lehigh
|
71 | @  Bucknell
|
63 | BUCK -1.5 | BUCK lost by 8 · not covered | 141.5 | 51 met · BUCK 28 · LEH 23 | |||||
| Final |  Wake Forest
|
69 | @  9Duke
|
77 | DUKE Solid 75% ✓ | DUKE -7.5 | DUKE won by 8 · covered | 155.5 | 39 met · DUKE 31 · WAKE 8 | ||||
| Final |  LSU N Orleans
|
59 | @  N'Western St
|
70 | NWST -2.5 | NWST won by 11 · covered | 157.5 | 24 met · NWST 13 · NOLA 11 | |||||
| Final |  Texas A&M-CC
|
63 | @  Nicholls
|
67 | AMCC -2.5 | AMCC lost by 4 · not covered | 137.5 | 23 met · NICH 9 · AMCC 14 | |||||
| Final |  Lamar
|
67 | @  Incarnate Word
|
76 | LAM Solid 69% ✗ | LAM -5.5 | LAM lost by 9 · not covered | 152.5 | 17 met · UIW 6 · LAM 11 | ||||
| Final |  McNeese
|
105 | @  Hou Christian
|
54 | MCN Banker 96% ✓ | MCN -19.5 | MCN won by 51 · covered | 152.5 | 18 met · HCU 8 · MCN 10 | ||||
| Final |  SE Louisiana
|
79 | @  East Texas A&M
|
77 | SELA -2.5 | SELA won by 2 · not covered | 129.5 | 3 met · ETAM 1 · SELA 2 | |||||
| Final |  West Virginia
|
65 | @  TCU
|
81 | TCU Banker 87% ✓ | TCU -12.5 | WVU +12.5 · covers 53% ✗ | TCU won by 16 · covered | 152.5 | 23 met · TCU 5 · WVU 18 | |||
| Final |  Texas Southern
|
79 | @  Bethune
|
83 | BCU -1.5 | BCU won by 4 · covered | 142.5 | 5 met · BCU 2 · TXSO 3 | |||||
| Final |  Jackson St
|
76 | @  AR-Pine Bluff
|
63 | JKST -1.5 | JKST won by 13 · covered | 155.5 | 44 met · UAPB 11 · JKST 33 | |||||
| Final |  Alabama A&M
|
60 | @  Grambling
|
50 | GRAM Solid 81% ✗ | GRAM -9.5 | GRAM lost by 10 · not covered | 135.5 | 43 met · GRAM 22 · AAMU 21 | ||||
| Final |  Alcorn St
|
72 | @  Miss Valley St
|
55 | ALCN Solid 83% ✓ | ALCN -10.5 | ALCN won by 17 · covered | 133.5 | 45 met · MVSU 19 · ALCN 26 | ||||
| Final |  Prairie View
|
61 | @  Florida A&M
|
58 | PV -1.5 | PV won by 3 · covered | 146.5 | 2 met · FAMU 1 · PV 1 | |||||
| Final |  Elon
|
55 | @  Towson
|
80 | TOW Solid 83% ✓ | TOW -10.5 | TOW won by 25 · covered | 132.5 | 17 met · TOW 11 · ELON 6 | ||||
| Final |  6Kansas
|
50 | @  Texas Tech
|
79 | TTU Solid 62% ✓ | TTU -3.5 | TTU won by 29 · covered | 143.5 | 36 met · TTU 6 · KU 30 |