Wednesday, February 7, 2024 52 games

Today: winner picks 27 of 44 right · line picks 1 of 3 right · total picks 1 of 2 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.

Time / Status	Away		Home		Pick	Line	Prediction	Line pick	Result	O/U	Total pick	Model total	Prev. meetings
Final	Stetson	84	@ Bellarmine	77		STET -2.5			STET won by 7 · covered	139.5			5 met · BELL 3 · STET 2
Final	Saint Louis	102	@ La Salle	84	LAS Solid 66% ✗	LAS -4.5			LAS lost by 18 · not covered	150.5			27 met · LAS 7 · SLU 20
Final	Georgetown	70	@ Seton Hall	76	HALL Banker 87% ✓	HALL -12.5		GTWN +12.5 · covers 53% ✓	HALL won by 6 · not covered	138.5			36 met · HALL 23 · GTWN 13
Final	Charleston So	46	@ Winthrop	67	WIN Solid 81% ✓	WIN -9.5			WIN won by 21 · covered	146.5			45 met · WIN 37 · CHSO 8
Final	High Point	81	@ UNC Asheville	86		UNCA -0.5			UNCA won by 5 · covered	158.5			45 met · UNCA 24 · HPU 21
Final	Western KY	81	@ Louisiana Tech	76	LT Solid 81% ✗	LT -9.5			LT lost by 5 · not covered	149.5			14 met · LT 8 · WKU 6
Final	Marshall	66	@ Troy	82	TROY Solid 75% ✓	TROY -7.5			TROY won by 16 · covered	152.5			3 met · TROY 0 · MRSH 3
Final	Cleveland St	75	@ Purdue FW	72	PFW Solid 62% ✗	PFW -3.5			PFW lost by 3 · not covered	153.5			13 met · PFW 3 · CLE 10
Final	The Citadel	64	@ W Carolina	71	WCU Solid 85% ✓	WCU -11.5			WCU won by 7 · not covered	138.5			40 met · WCU 25 · CIT 15
Final	Furman	69	@ Mercer	78						146.5			26 met · MER 6 · FUR 20
Final	Wofford	50	@ ETSU	57		ETSU -2.5			ETSU won by 7 · covered	141.5			25 met · ETSU 12 · WOF 13
Final	Bucknell	80	@ Navy	67		NAVY -1.5			NAVY lost by 13 · not covered	131.5			48 met · NAVY 17 · BUCK 31
Final	Loyola MD	44	@ American	43	AMER Solid 79% ✗	AMER -9			AMER lost by 1 · not covered	133.5			25 met · AMER 14 · L-MD 11
Final	UMass	73	@ St Bonaventure	79	SBU Solid 64% ✓	SBU -4			SBU won by 6 · covered	145.0			30 met · SBU 17 · MASS 13
Final	Loyola Chicago	85	@ George Mason	79	GMU Solid 66% ✗	GMU -4.5			GMU lost by 6 · not covered	136.5			2 met · GMU 1 · LUC 1
Final	Davidson	72	@ Duquesne	59	DUQ Solid 72% ✗	DUQ -6.5			DUQ lost by 13 · not covered	137.5			12 met · DUQ 1 · DAV 11
Final	16Alabama	81	@ 12Auburn	99	AUB Solid 69% ✓	AUB -5.5			AUB won by 18 · covered	162.5			44 met · AUB 18 · ALA 26
Final	LSU	68	@ 6Tennessee	88	TENN Banker 89% ✓	TENN -13.5		LSU +13.5 · covers 53% ✗	TENN won by 20 · covered	152.5			26 met · TENN 14 · LSU 12
Final	Colgate	74	@ Boston U	64	COLG Solid 69% ✓	COLG -5.5			COLG won by 10 · covered	133.5			26 met · BU 8 · COLG 18
Final	Villanova	53	@ Xavier	56	XAV Solid 62% ✓	XAV -3.5			XAV won by 3 · not covered	148.5			22 met · XAV 4 · VILL 18
Final	Holy Cross	59	@ Lafayette	75	LAF Solid 74% ✓	LAF -7			LAF won by 16 · covered	129.5			47 met · LAF 24 · HC 23
Final	11Wisconsin	68	@ Michigan	72	WIS Solid 75% ✗	WIS -7.5			WIS lost by 4 · not covered	142.5			37 met · MICH 12 · WIS 25
Final	Gardner-Webb	75	@ Presbyterian	77	GWEB Solid 62% ✗	GWEB -3.5			GWEB lost by 2 · not covered	145.5			29 met · PRES 7 · GWEB 22
Final	SC Upstate	69	@ Longwood	64	LONG Solid 75% ✗	LONG -7.5			LONG lost by 5 · not covered	141.5			11 met · LONG 5 · UPST 6
Final	Valparaiso	61	@ Indiana St	101	INST Banker 97% ✓	INST -20.5			INST won by 40 · covered	156.0	OVER 156.0 · 52.3% (162) ✓		18 met · INST 8 · VAL 10
Final	Army	68	@ Lehigh	57	LEH Solid 75% ✗	LEH -7.5			LEH lost by 11 · not covered	130.5			46 met · LEH 31 · ARMY 15
Final	Pitt	67	@ NC State	64	NCSU Solid 62% ✗	NCSU -3.5			NCSU lost by 3 · not covered	142.5			15 met · NCSU 12 · PITT 3
Final	Louisville	92	@ Syracuse	94	SYR Solid 78% ✓	SYR -8.5			SYR won by 2 · not covered	154.5			22 met · SYR 9 · LOU 13
Final	Coastal	75	@ UL Monroe	79	ULM Solid 66% ✓	ULM -4.5			ULM won by 4 · not covered	146.5			9 met · ULM 3 · CCU 6
Final	UTSA	64	@ Wichita St	84	WICH Solid 81% ✓	WICH -9.5			WICH won by 20 · covered	155.5			1 met · WICH 1 · UTSA 0
Final	App State	56	@ Texas St	63	APP Solid 78% ✗	APP -8.5			APP lost by 7 · not covered	132.5			17 met · TXST 9 · APP 8
Final	James Madison	77	@ Arkansas St	73	JMU Solid 66% ✓	JMU -4.5			JMU won by 4 · not covered	160.5			Never met
Final	GA Southern	65	@ South Alabama	78	USA Solid 66% ✓	USA -4.5			USA won by 13 · covered	151.5			22 met · USA 12 · GASO 10
Final	Georgia St	78	@ Louisiana	69	UL Solid 78% ✗	UL -8.5			UL lost by 9 · not covered	152.5			25 met · UL 8 · GAST 17
Final	Old Dominion	73	@ Southern Miss	78	USM Solid 66% ✓	USM -4.5			USM won by 5 · covered	141.5			9 met · USM 3 · ODU 6
Final	Portland	64	@ Gonzaga	96	GONZ Banker 98% ✓	GONZ -28.5			GONZ won by 32 · covered	161.5	OVER 161.5 · 52.3% (160) ✗		39 met · GONZ 37 · PORT 2
Final	Murray St	64	@ Belmont	69		BEL -2.5			BEL won by 5 · covered	146.5			21 met · BEL 13 · MUR 8
Final	S Illinois	88	@ Drake	92	DRKE Solid 81% ✓	DRKE -9.5			DRKE won by 4 · not covered	137.5			47 met · DRKE 24 · SIU 23
Final	Bradley	70	@ Evansville	73	BRAD Solid 81% ✗	BRAD -9.5			BRAD lost by 3 · not covered	144.5			42 met · EVAN 14 · BRAD 28
Final	UIC	61	@ Illinois St	56	ILST Solid 66% ✗	ILST -4.5			ILST lost by 5 · not covered	133.5			15 met · ILST 10 · UIC 5
Final	Missouri St	65	@ Northern Iowa	72	UNI Solid 66% ✓	UNI -4.5			UNI won by 7 · covered	139.5			47 met · UNI 32 · MOST 15
Final	SMU	95	@ Rice	69	SMU Solid 72% ✓	SMU -6.5			SMU won by 26 · covered	142.5			25 met · RICE 12 · SMU 13
Final	North Texas	68	@ Tulsa	55	UNT Solid 66% ✓	UNT -4.5			UNT won by 13 · covered	132.5			4 met · TLSA 2 · UNT 2
Final	19Creighton	87	@ Providence	91		CREI -2.5			CREI lost by 4 · not covered	142.5			24 met · PROV 13 · CREI 11
Final	FGCU	82	@ E Kentucky	90	EKU Solid 72% ✓	EKU -6.5			EKU won by 8 · covered	141.5			2 met · EKU 1 · FGCU 1
Final	Georgia	62	@ Mississippi St	75	MSST Solid 78% ✓	MSST -8.5			MSST won by 13 · covered	143.5			27 met · MSST 14 · UGA 13
Final	Texas A&M	79	@ Missouri	60	TA&M Solid 69% ✓	TA&M -5.5			TA&M won by 19 · covered	136.5			35 met · MIZ 11 · TA&M 24
Final	Nebraska	68	@ Northwestern	80	NU Solid 69% ✓	NU -5.5			NU won by 12 · covered	141.5			19 met · NU 12 · NEB 7
Final	Notre Dame	53	@ 9Duke	71	DUKE Banker 93% ✓	DUKE -16.5		ND +16.5 · covers 53% ✗	DUKE won by 18 · covered	134.5			17 met · DUKE 11 · ND 6
Final	UCLA	82	@ Stanford	74	STAN Solid 62% ✗	STAN -3.5			STAN lost by 8 · not covered	135.5			43 met · STAN 16 · UCLA 27
Final	LMU	77	@ San Diego	79	LMU Solid 62% ✗	LMU -3.5			LMU lost by 2 · not covered	146.5			43 met · USD 24 · LMU 19
Final	USC	77	@ California	83		CAL -2.5			CAL won by 6 · covered	148.5			43 met · CAL 18 · USC 25