Monday, February 5, 2024 17 games
Today: winner picks 9 of 15 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.
| Time / Status | Away | Home | Pick | Line | Prediction | Line pick | Result | O/U | Total pick | Model total | Prev. meetings | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final |  Incarnate Word
|
64 | @  SE Louisiana
|
76 | SELA Solid 75% ✓ | SELA -7.5 | SELA won by 12 · covered | 135.5 | 11 met · SELA 8 · UIW 3 | ||||
| Final |  Miami
|
38 | @  Virginia
|
60 | UVA Solid 69% ✓ | UVA -5.5 | UVA won by 22 · covered | 132.5 | 26 met · UVA 15 · MIA 11 | ||||
| Final |  Hou Christian
|
58 | @  LSU N Orleans
|
84 | NOLA Solid 72% ✓ | NOLA -6.5 | NOLA won by 26 · covered | 162.5 | 19 met · NOLA 12 · HCU 7 | ||||
| Final |  N'Western St
|
66 | @  Nicholls
|
73 | NICH Solid 72% ✓ | NICH -6.5 | NICH won by 7 · covered | 140.5 | 42 met · NICH 18 · NWST 24 | ||||
| Final |  Coppin St
|
65 | @  SC State
|
77 | SCST Solid 85% ✓ | SCST -11.5 | SCST won by 12 · covered | 133.5 | 34 met · SCST 18 · COPP 16 | ||||
| Final |  Howard
|
75 | @  Delaware St
|
71 | DSU -1.5 | DSU lost by 4 · not covered | 141.5 | 34 met · DSU 21 · HOW 13 | |||||
| Final |  Morgan St
|
79 | @  NC Central
|
72 | NCCU Solid 78% ✗ | NCCU -8.5 | NCCU lost by 7 · not covered | 148.5 | 14 met · NCCU 12 · MORG 2 | ||||
| Final |  East Texas A&M
|
51 | @  McNeese
|
77 | MCN Banker 95% ✓ | MCN -18.5 | MCN won by 26 · covered | 136.5 | 4 met · MCN 2 · ETAM 2 | ||||
| Final |  Norfolk St
|
60 | @  MD Eastern
|
69 | NORF Solid 78% ✗ | NORF -8.5 | NORF lost by 9 · not covered | 131.5 | 35 met · UMES 3 · NORF 32 | ||||
| Final |  Bethune
|
68 | @  Alabama A&M
|
72 | BCU -1.5 | BCU lost by 4 · not covered | 152.5 | 4 met · AAMU 3 · BCU 1 | |||||
| Final |  Florida A&M
|
53 | @  Alabama St
|
62 | ALST Solid 78% ✓ | ALST -8.5 | ALST won by 9 · covered | 139.5 | 7 met · ALST 1 · FAMU 6 | ||||
| Final |  Grambling
|
78 | @  Alcorn St
|
67 | ALCN Solid 62% ✗ | ALCN -3.5 | ALCN lost by 11 · not covered | 135.5 | 41 met · ALCN 19 · GRAM 22 | ||||
| Final |  Idaho
|
61 | @  Sacramento St
|
45 | SAC Solid 69% ✗ | SAC -5.5 | SAC lost by 16 · not covered | 132.5 | 22 met · SAC 10 · IDHO 12 | ||||
| Final |  4Kansas
|
70 | @  Kansas St
|
75 | KU Solid 62% ✗ | KU -3.5 | KU lost by 5 · not covered | 143.5 | 48 met · KSU 7 · KU 41 | ||||
| Final |  AR-Pine Bluff
|
74 | @  Prairie View
|
75 | PV Solid 62% ✓ | PV -3.5 | PV won by 1 · not covered | 159.5 | 42 met · PV 22 · UAPB 20 | ||||
| Final |  Southern
|
72 | @  Jackson St
|
63 | JKST Solid 62% ✗ | JKST -3.5 | JKST lost by 9 · not covered | 143.5 | 45 met · JKST 20 · SOU 25 | ||||
| Final |  E Washington
|
90 | @  Portland St
|
77 | EWU Solid 66% ✓ | EWU -4.5 | EWU won by 13 · covered | 151.5 | 42 met · PRST 18 · EWU 24 |