Sunday, February 4, 2024 17 games

Today: winner picks 14 of 16 right · line picks 2 of 2 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.

Time / Status	Away		Home		Pick	Line	Prediction	Line pick	Result	O/U	Total pick	Model total	Prev. meetings
Final	Rider	93	@ Iona	94	IONA Solid 72% ✓	IONA -6.5			IONA won by 1 · not covered	144.5			47 met · IONA 31 · RID 16
Final	Davidson	63	@ Loyola Chicago	76	LUC Solid 66% ✓	LUC -4.5			LUC won by 13 · covered	139.5			2 met · LUC 0 · DAV 2
Final	2Purdue	75	@ 6Wisconsin	69		PUR -1.5			PUR won by 6 · covered	143.5			33 met · WIS 15 · PUR 18
Final	Wright St	85	@ N Kentucky	78	WRST Solid 62% ✓	WRST -3.5			WRST won by 7 · covered	160.5			19 met · NKU 9 · WRST 10
Final	Youngstown St	78	@ Purdue FW	82	YSU Solid 66% ✗	YSU -4.5			YSU lost by 4 · not covered	153.5			10 met · PFW 5 · YSU 5
Final	UNC Greensboro	89	@ Furman	87	FUR Solid 66% ✗	FUR -4.5			FUR lost by 2 · not covered	147.5			39 met · FUR 18 · UNCG 21
Final	Canisius	63	@ Quinnipiac	88	QUIN Solid 72% ✓	QUIN -6.5			QUIN won by 25 · covered	154.5			22 met · QUIN 7 · CAN 15
Final	Manhattan	68	@ Fairfield	77	FAIR Solid 81% ✓	FAIR -9.5			FAIR won by 9 · not covered	148.5			51 met · FAIR 25 · MAN 26
Final	Saint Peter's	52	@ Marist	63	MRST Solid 62% ✓	MRST -3.5			MRST won by 11 · covered	121.5			45 met · MRST 18 · SPU 27
Final	Mount St Marys	68	@ Siena	61	MSM Solid 78% ✓	MSM -8.5			MSM won by 7 · not covered	135.5			5 met · SIE 4 · MSM 1
Final	IU Indy	67	@ Milwaukee	87	MILW Banker 95% ✓	MILW -18.5			MILW won by 20 · covered	153.5			18 met · MILW 13 · IUIN 5
Final	Temple	80	@ Tulane	92	TULN Solid 83% ✓	TULN -10.5			TULN won by 12 · covered	155.5			19 met · TULN 7 · TEM 12
Final	South Dakota	67	@ S Dakota St	70	SDST Banker 92% ✓	SDST -15.5		SDAK +15.5 · covers 53% ✓	SDST won by 3 · not covered	156.5			30 met · SDST 22 · SDAK 8
Final	Providence	50	@ Villanova	68	VILL Solid 66% ✓	VILL -4.5			VILL won by 18 · covered	136.5			40 met · VILL 28 · PROV 12
Final	UAB	69	@ SMU	72	SMU Solid 72% ✓	SMU -6.5			SMU won by 3 · not covered	152.5			10 met · SMU 1 · UAB 9
Final	Nebraska	84	@ 14Illinois	87	ILL Solid 81% ✓	ILL -9.5			ILL won by 3 · not covered	154.5			20 met · ILL 14 · NEB 6
Final	Stanford	71	@ 11Arizona	82	ARIZ Banker 94% ✓	ARIZ -17.5		STAN +17.5 · covers 53% ✓	ARIZ won by 11 · not covered	165.5			43 met · ARIZ 31 · STAN 12