Monday, January 29, 2024 17 games
Today: winner picks 10 of 13 right · line picks 1 of 2 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.
| Time / Status | Away | Home | Pick | Line | Prediction | Line pick | Result | O/U | Total pick | Model total | Prev. meetings | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final |  Boston U
|
63 | @  Holy Cross
|
65 | BU Solid 62% ✗ | BU -3.5 | BU lost by 2 · not covered | 135.5 | 30 met · HC 15 · BU 15 | ||||
| Final |  7Duke
|
77 | @  Virginia Tech
|
67 | DUKE Solid 62% ✓ | DUKE -3.5 | DUKE won by 10 · covered | 146.5 | 31 met · VT 9 · DUKE 22 | ||||
| Final |  Howard
|
81 | @  Coppin St
|
66 | HOW Solid 78% ✓ | HOW -8.5 | HOW won by 15 · covered | 135.5 | 36 met · COPP 22 · HOW 14 | ||||
| Final |  Morgan St
|
73 | @  Norfolk St
|
83 | NORF Banker 87% ✓ | NORF -12.5 | MORG +12.5 · covers 53% ✓ | NORF won by 10 · not covered | 143.5 | 40 met · NORF 25 · MORG 15 | |||
| Final |  NC Central
|
69 | @  Delaware St
|
66 | NCCU -1.5 | NCCU won by 3 · covered | 134.5 | 23 met · DSU 6 · NCCU 17 | |||||
| Final |  SE Louisiana
|
80 | @  Hou Christian
|
58 | SELA Solid 62% ✓ | SELA -3.5 | SELA won by 22 · covered | 141.5 | 14 met · HCU 5 · SELA 9 | ||||
| Final |  N'Western St
|
65 | @  McNeese
|
89 | MCN Banker 92% ✓ | MCN -15.5 | NWST +15.5 · covers 53% ✗ | MCN won by 24 · covered | 143.5 | 43 met · MCN 19 · NWST 24 | |||
| Final |  Texas A&M-CC
|
69 | @  East Texas A&M
|
54 | AMCC -2.5 | AMCC won by 15 · covered | 139.5 | 2 met · ETAM 1 · AMCC 1 | |||||
| Final |  LSU N Orleans
|
73 | @  Lamar
|
98 | LAM Solid 78% ✓ | LAM -8.5 | LAM won by 25 · covered | 160.5 | 13 met · LAM 2 · NOLA 11 | ||||
| Final |  Jackson St
|
86 | @  Florida A&M
|
88 | JKST Solid 66% ✗ | JKST -4.5 | JKST lost by 2 · not covered | 144.5 | 4 met · FAMU 1 · JKST 3 | ||||
| Final |  SC State
|
63 | @  MD Eastern
|
53 | SCST -1.5 | SCST won by 10 · covered | 144.5 | 28 met · UMES 7 · SCST 21 | |||||
| Final |  Alabama St
|
55 | @  Texas Southern
|
56 | TXSO Solid 66% ✓ | TXSO -4.5 | TXSO won by 1 · not covered | 134.5 | 46 met · TXSO 28 · ALST 18 | ||||
| Final |  Miss Valley St
|
54 | @  Southern
|
78 | SOU Banker 96% ✓ | SOU -19.5 | SOU won by 24 · covered | 133.5 | 39 met · SOU 22 · MVSU 17 | ||||
| Final |  AR-Pine Bluff
|
86 | @  Grambling
|
70 | GRAM Solid 72% ✗ | GRAM -6.5 | GRAM lost by 16 · not covered | 146.5 | 42 met · GRAM 21 · UAPB 21 | ||||
| Final |  Alcorn St
|
70 | @  Bethune
|
67 | BCU -2.5 | BCU lost by 3 · not covered | 150.5 | 4 met · BCU 1 · ALCN 3 | |||||
| Final |  Alabama A&M
|
76 | @  Prairie View
|
87 | PV Solid 72% ✓ | PV -6.5 | PV won by 11 · covered | 148.5 | 42 met · PV 24 · AAMU 18 | ||||
| Final |  4Houston
|
76 | @  Texas
|
72 | HOU Solid 66% ✓ | HOU -4.5 | HOU won by 4 · not covered | 130.5 | 1 met · TEX 0 · HOU 1 |