Sunday, January 28, 2024 16 games

Today: winner picks 10 of 14 right · line picks 1 of 1 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.

Time / Status	Away		Home		Pick	Line	Prediction	Line pick	Result	O/U	Total pick	Model total	Prev. meetings
Final	Wright St	83	@ IU Indy	76	WRST Banker 92% ✓	WRST -15.5		IUIN +15.5 · covers 53% ✓	WRST won by 7 · not covered	159.5			14 met · IUIN 1 · WRST 13
Final	Xavier	56	@ 1UConn	99	CONN Solid 85% ✓	CONN -11.5			CONN won by 43 · covered	148.5			7 met · CONN 3 · XAV 4
Final	Texas St	46	@ Louisiana	66	UL Solid 78% ✓	UL -8.5			UL won by 20 · covered	143.5			26 met · UL 19 · TXST 7
Final	Robert Morris	64	@ Cleveland St	66	CLE Solid 75% ✓	CLE -7.5			CLE won by 2 · not covered	149.5			12 met · CLE 10 · RMU 2
Final	Marist	80	@ Canisius	71		CAN -2.5			CAN lost by 9 · not covered	131.5			48 met · CAN 29 · MRST 19
Final	2Purdue	68	@ Rutgers	60	PUR Solid 83% ✓	PUR -10.5			PUR won by 8 · not covered	141.5			15 met · RUTG 5 · PUR 10
Final	North Texas	63	@ 22FAU	66	FAU Solid 78% ✓	FAU -8.5			FAU won by 3 · not covered	133.5			22 met · FAU 8 · UNT 14
Final	N Kentucky	52	@ Youngstown St	82	YSU Solid 72% ✓	YSU -6.5			YSU won by 30 · covered	149.5			20 met · YSU 5 · NKU 15
Final	Arkansas St	82	@ UL Monroe	85	ARST Solid 69% ✗	ARST -5.5			ARST lost by 3 · not covered	147.5			38 met · ULM 13 · ARST 25
Final	Quinnipiac	66	@ Fairfield	64		FAIR -1.5			FAIR lost by 2 · not covered	157.5			21 met · FAIR 7 · QUIN 14
Final	Manhattan	84	@ Niagara	78	NIA Solid 81% ✗	NIA -9.5			NIA lost by 6 · not covered	144.5			45 met · NIA 20 · MAN 25
Final	Saint Peter's	63	@ Siena	52	SPU Solid 81% ✓	SPU -9.5			SPU won by 11 · covered	126.5			43 met · SIE 22 · SPU 21
Final	SMU	72	@ Wichita St	77	SMU Solid 72% ✗	SMU -6.5			SMU lost by 5 · not covered	146.5			8 met · WICH 7 · SMU 1
Final	Temple	64	@ East Carolina	70	ECU Solid 72% ✓	ECU -6.5			ECU won by 6 · not covered	136.5			16 met · ECU 5 · TEM 11
Final	19Memphis	88	@ UAB	97	MEM Solid 66% ✗	MEM -4.5			MEM lost by 9 · not covered	158.5			25 met · UAB 3 · MEM 22
Final	Nevada	55	@ 25New Mexico	89	UNM Solid 75% ✓	UNM -7.5			UNM won by 34 · covered	155.5			21 met · UNM 7 · NEV 14