Wednesday, January 24, 2024 47 games

Today: winner picks 27 of 34 right · line picks 1 of 1 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.

Time / Status	Away		Home		Pick	Line	Prediction	Line pick	Result	O/U	Total pick	Model total	Prev. meetings
Final	ETSU	74	@ VMI	73	ETSU Solid 85% ✓	ETSU -11.5			ETSU won by 1 · not covered	150.5			20 met · VMI 2 · ETSU 18
Final	LSU	66	@ Georgia	68	UGA Solid 66% ✓	UGA -4.5			UGA won by 2 · not covered	154.5			27 met · UGA 11 · LSU 16
Final	Providence	67	@ Seton Hall	63		HALL -2.5			HALL lost by 4 · not covered	135.5			37 met · HALL 20 · PROV 17
Final	Radford	69	@ UNC Asheville	81	UNCA Solid 69% ✓	UNCA -5.5			UNCA won by 12 · covered	140.5			41 met · UNCA 24 · RAD 17
Final	C Arkansas	79	@ Queens	96	QUC Solid 69% ✓	QUC -5.5			QUC won by 17 · covered	162.5			1 met · QUC 0 · CARK 1
Final	North Alabama	90	@ Kennesaw St	84	KENN Solid 72% ✗	KENN -6.5			KENN lost by 6 · not covered	163.5			8 met · KENN 1 · UNA 7
Final	Southern Miss	79	@ Coastal	63	USM Solid 62% ✓	USM -3.5			USM won by 16 · covered	146.5			Never met
Final	Georgia St	68	@ Marshall	77	MRSH Solid 62% ✓	MRSH -3.5			MRSH won by 9 · covered	157.5			2 met · MRSH 2 · GAST 0
Final	James Madison	78	@ Old Dominion	62	JMU Solid 75% ✓	JMU -7.5			JMU won by 16 · covered	153.5			31 met · ODU 21 · JMU 10
Final	Texas St	65	@ Troy	78	TROY Solid 78% ✓	TROY -8.5			TROY won by 13 · covered	139.5			16 met · TROY 7 · TXST 9
Final	UNC Greensboro	85	@ W Carolina	82		WCU -1.5			WCU lost by 3 · not covered	134.5			45 met · WCU 23 · UNCG 22
Final	Mercer	66	@ The Citadel	68		CIT -1.5			CIT won by 2 · covered	134.5			20 met · CIT 4 · MER 16
Final	Samford	68	@ Furman	78	FUR Solid 62% ✓	FUR -3.5			FUR won by 10 · covered	167.5			32 met · FUR 22 · SAM 10
Final	Chattanooga	79	@ Wofford	65		UTC -1.5			UTC won by 14 · covered	147.5			40 met · WOF 18 · UTC 22
Final	Navy	63	@ Bucknell	71		BUCK -2.5			BUCK won by 8 · covered	134.5			47 met · BUCK 30 · NAVY 17
Final	Lafayette	70	@ Loyola MD	44		LAF -2.5			LAF won by 26 · covered	129.0			26 met · L-MD 12 · LAF 14
Final	G Washington	74	@ Richmond	82	RICH Solid 75% ✓	RICH -7.5			RICH won by 8 · covered	144.5			37 met · RICH 22 · GW 15
Final	Davidson	84	@ Saint Louis	61		SLU -1.5			SLU lost by 23 · not covered	146.5			12 met · SLU 4 · DAV 8
Final	Fordham	71	@ Rhode Island	68		URI -2.5			URI lost by 3 · not covered	148.5			35 met · URI 23 · FOR 12
Final	Holy Cross	65	@ American	84	AMER Solid 83% ✓	AMER -10.5			AMER won by 19 · covered	137.5			46 met · AMER 27 · HC 19
Final	Army	69	@ Boston U	59	BU Solid 66% ✗	BU -4.5			BU lost by 10 · not covered	125.5			24 met · BU 13 · ARMY 11
Final	Maryland	69	@ Iowa	67	IOWA Solid 69% ✗	IOWA -5.5			IOWA lost by 2 · not covered	151.5			13 met · IOWA 8 · MD 5
Final	Winthrop	78	@ Charleston So	59	WIN Solid 72% ✓	WIN -6.5			WIN won by 19 · covered	142.5			44 met · CHSO 8 · WIN 36
Final	Gardner-Webb	76	@ Longwood	64	LONG Solid 66% ✗	LONG -4.5			LONG lost by 12 · not covered	143.5			20 met · LONG 8 · GWEB 12
Final	High Point	78	@ SC Upstate	67	HPU Solid 72% ✓	HPU -6.5			HPU won by 11 · covered	149.5			10 met · UPST 4 · HPU 6
Final	Murray St	63	@ Bradley	71	BRAD Solid 78% ✓	BRAD -8.5			BRAD won by 8 · not covered	140.5			3 met · BRAD 1 · MUR 2
Final	South Florida	75	@ Temple	69		USF -1.5			USF won by 6 · covered	143.5			22 met · TEM 15 · USF 7
Final	Miami	73	@ Notre Dame	61	MIA Solid 69% ✓	MIA -5.5			MIA won by 12 · covered	140.5			15 met · ND 8 · MIA 7
Final	NC State	53	@ Virginia	59	UVA Solid 66% ✓	UVA -4.5			UVA won by 6 · covered	130.5			33 met · UVA 20 · NCSU 13
Final	Jax State	67	@ MTSU	75		MTSU -0.5			MTSU won by 8 · covered	124.5			Never met
Final	8Auburn	75	@ Alabama	79	ALA Solid 62% ✓	ALA -3.5			ALA won by 4 · covered	161.5			43 met · ALA 25 · AUB 18
Final	East Carolina	54	@ Wichita St	52		WICH -2.5			WICH lost by 2 · not covered	145.5			8 met · WICH 7 · ECU 1
Final	Drake	80	@ Missouri St	83	DRKE Solid 72% ✗	DRKE -6.5			DRKE lost by 3 · not covered	142.5			46 met · MOST 30 · DRKE 16
Final	Valparaiso	69	@ S Illinois	75	SIU Banker 89% ✓	SIU -13.5		VAL +13.5 · covers 53% ✓	SIU won by 6 · not covered	134.5			12 met · SIU 7 · VAL 5
Final	Indiana St	89	@ UIC	83	INST Solid 85% ✓	INST -11.5			INST won by 6 · not covered	153.5			3 met · UIC 0 · INST 3
Final	22FAU	69	@ Rice	56	FAU Solid 85% ✓	FAU -11.5			FAU won by 13 · covered	151.5			10 met · RICE 4 · FAU 6
Final	Tulane	88	@ UTSA	89	TULN Solid 69% ✗	TULN -5.5			TULN lost by 1 · not covered	167.5			1 met · UTSA 0 · TULN 1
Final	Mississippi St	70	@ Florida	79	FLA Solid 62% ✓	FLA -3.5			FLA won by 9 · covered	150.5			25 met · FLA 15 · MSST 10
Final	Villanova	50	@ St John's	70	SJU Solid 62% ✓	SJU -3.5			SJU won by 20 · covered	143.5			35 met · SJU 6 · VILL 29
Final	Arkansas	51	@ Ole Miss	77	MISS Solid 78% ✓	MISS -8.5			MISS won by 26 · covered	148.5			35 met · MISS 17 · ARK 18
Final	14Marquette	86	@ DePaul	73	MARQ Banker 95% ✓	MARQ -18.5			MARQ won by 13 · not covered	149.5			38 met · DEP 10 · MARQ 28
Final	10Illinois	91	@ Northwestern	96	ILL Solid 62% ✗	ILL -3.5			ILL lost by 5 · not covered	145.5			40 met · NU 10 · ILL 30
Final	Kansas St	67	@ 23Iowa State	78	ISU Solid 78% ✓	ISU -8.5			ISU won by 11 · covered	135.5			45 met · ISU 21 · KSU 24
Final	Utah	57	@ Washington St	79		WSU -2.5			WSU won by 22 · covered	143.5			23 met · WSU 5 · UTAH 18
Final	24Colorado St	64	@ Nevada	77	NEV Solid 66% ✓	NEV -4.5			NEV won by 13 · covered	142.5			21 met · NEV 13 · CSU 8
Final	25New Mexico	95	@ San José St	75	UNM Solid 78% ✓	UNM -8.5			UNM won by 20 · covered	154.5			19 met · SJSU 5 · UNM 14
Final	Colorado	98	@ Washington	81		COLO -2.5			COLO won by 17 · covered	156.5			24 met · WASH 14 · COLO 10