Sunday, January 21, 2024 18 games

Today: winner picks 13 of 15 right · line picks 1 of 2 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.

Time / Status	Away		Home		Pick	Line	Prediction	Line pick	Result	O/U	Total pick	Model total	Prev. meetings
Final	Michigan St	61	@ Maryland	59		MSU -1.5			MSU won by 2 · covered	134.5			21 met · MD 8 · MSU 13
Final	Rutgers	63	@ 14Illinois	86	ILL Solid 85% ✓	ILL -11.5			ILL won by 23 · covered	142.5			16 met · ILL 12 · RUTG 4
Final	10Memphis	79	@ Tulane	81	MEM Solid 62% ✗	MEM -3.5			MEM lost by 2 · not covered	169.5			38 met · TULN 5 · MEM 33
Final	Saint Francis	57	@ Le Moyne	94	LEM Solid 69% ✓	LEM -5.5			LEM won by 37 · covered	140.5			Never met
Final	Stonehill	47	@ Merrimack	63	MRMK Banker 87% ✓	MRMK -12.5		STO +12.5 · covers 53% ✗	MRMK won by 16 · covered	134.5			2 met · MRMK 2 · STO 0
Final	Wagner	61	@ Sacred Heart	66	SHU Solid 66% ✓	SHU -4.5			SHU won by 5 · covered	131.5			40 met · SHU 16 · WAG 24
Final	Canisius	59	@ Saint Peter's	70	SPU Solid 69% ✓	SPU -5.5			SPU won by 11 · covered	132.5			44 met · SPU 21 · CAN 23
Final	Fairfield	82	@ Manhattan	75	FAIR Solid 75% ✓	FAIR -7.5			FAIR won by 7 · not covered	147.5			50 met · MAN 26 · FAIR 24
Final	Iona	87	@ Quinnipiac	91		QUIN -1.5			QUIN won by 4 · covered	148.5			20 met · QUIN 7 · IONA 13
Final	Siena	48	@ Marist	50	MRST Solid 72% ✓	MRST -6.5			MRST won by 2 · not covered	129.5			46 met · MRST 15 · SIE 31
Final	Niagara	82	@ Mount St Marys	71	MSM Solid 69% ✗	MSM -5.5			MSM lost by 11 · not covered	143.5			4 met · MSM 1 · NIA 3
Final	Wichita St	68	@ South Florida	72	USF Solid 66% ✓	USF -4.5			USF won by 4 · not covered	151.5			10 met · USF 1 · WICH 9
Final	23FAU	112	@ UTSA	103	FAU Banker 93% ✓	FAU -16.5		UTSA +16.5 · covers 53% ✓	FAU won by 9 · not covered	161.5			16 met · UTSA 6 · FAU 10
Final	Oregon	77	@ Utah	80	UTAH Solid 72% ✓	UTAH -6.5			UTAH won by 3 · not covered	149.5			28 met · UTAH 4 · ORE 24
Final	Chattanooga	81	@ ETSU	74		UTC -1.5			UTC won by 7 · covered	146.5			35 met · ETSU 19 · UTC 16
Final	Saint Xavier	58	@ Chicago St	108	CHST Banker 95% ✓								3 met · CHST 3 · STX 0
Final	Indiana St	72	@ Murray St	63	INST Solid 69% ✓	INST -5.5			INST won by 9 · covered	155.0			5 met · MUR 3 · INST 2
Final	C Connecticut	72	@ Long Island	63	CCSU Solid 78% ✓	CCSU -8.5			CCSU won by 9 · covered	143.5			38 met · LIU 22 · CCSU 16