Sunday, January 14, 2024 16 games

Today: winner picks 7 of 9 right · line picks 1 of 1 right · total picks 1 of 1 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.

Time / Status	Away		Home		Pick	Line	Prediction	Line pick	Result	O/U	Total pick	Model total	Prev. meetings
Final	Georgetown	67	@ 4UConn	80	CONN Banker 97% ✓	CONN -20.5			CONN won by 13 · not covered	143.5	OVER 143.5 · 52.3% (147) ✓		21 met · CONN 14 · GTWN 7
Final	Rutgers	55	@ Michigan St	73	MSU Solid 83% ✓	MSU -10.5			MSU won by 18 · covered	136.5			14 met · MSU 11 · RUTG 3
Final	UAB	73	@ 24FAU	86	FAU Banker 92% ✓	FAU -15.5		UAB +15.5 · covers 53% ✓	FAU won by 13 · not covered	152.5			18 met · FAU 5 · UAB 13
Final	Cleveland St	71	@ Green Bay	79		GB -1.5			GB won by 8 · covered	139.5			45 met · GB 27 · CLE 18
Final	Mount St Marys	70	@ Iona	87	IONA Solid 66% ✓	IONA -4.5			IONA won by 17 · covered	142.5			3 met · IONA 3 · MSM 0
Final	13Memphis	112	@ Wichita St	86	MEM Solid 69% ✓	MEM -5.5			MEM won by 26 · covered	155.5			11 met · WICH 3 · MEM 8
Final	Rider	60	@ Marist	83		MRST -2.5			MRST won by 23 · covered	131.5			43 met · MRST 11 · RID 32
Final	Saint Peter's	81	@ Manhattan	68	SPU Solid 72% ✓	SPU -6.5			SPU won by 13 · covered	127.5			46 met · MAN 27 · SPU 19
Final	Maryland	76	@ 10Illinois	67	ILL Solid 78% ✗	ILL -8.5			ILL lost by 9 · not covered	139.5			16 met · ILL 5 · MD 11
Final	Liberty	76	@ Louisiana Tech	80		LT -2.5			LT won by 4 · covered	132.5			Never met
Final	Valparaiso	59	@ Illinois St	50	ILST Solid 78% ✗	ILST -8.5			ILST lost by 9 · not covered	135.5			12 met · ILST 2 · VAL 10
Final	Tulane	94	@ Tulsa	87		TULN -2.5			TULN won by 7 · covered	157.5			32 met · TLSA 23 · TULN 9
Final	Delaware	74	@ UNC Wilmington	79	UNCW Solid 69% ✓	UNCW -5.5			UNCW won by 5 · not covered	145.5			42 met · UNCW 23 · DEL 19
Final	Northern Iowa	70	@ Murray St	60		MUR -1.5			MUR lost by 10 · not covered	142.5			1 met · MUR 0 · UNI 1
Final	Utah	73	@ Stanford	79		UTAH -2.5			UTAH lost by 6 · not covered	155.5			21 met · STAN 10 · UTAH 11
Final	Washington	61	@ UCLA	73		WASH -1.5			WASH lost by 12 · not covered	140.5			39 met · UCLA 25 · WASH 14