Friday, January 12, 2024 17 games

Today: winner picks 10 of 12 right · line picks 0 of 1 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.

Time / Status	Away		Home		Pick	Line	Prediction	Line pick	Result	O/U	Total pick	Model total	Prev. meetings
Final	Cleveland St	80	@ Milwaukee	88	MILW Solid 62% ✓	MILW -3.5			MILW won by 8 · covered	158.5			45 met · MILW 27 · CLE 18
Final	Minnesota	62	@ Indiana	74	IU Solid 66% ✓	IU -4.5			IU won by 12 · covered	143.5			35 met · IU 21 · MINN 14
Final	FGCU	75	@ Kennesaw St	78	KENN Solid 75% ✓	KENN -7.5			KENN won by 3 · not covered	152.5			32 met · KENN 10 · FGCU 22
Final	Jacksonville	74	@ North Florida	82	UNF Solid 69% ✓	UNF -5.5			UNF won by 8 · covered	144.5			41 met · UNF 20 · JAX 21
Final	Stetson	84	@ Queens	66		STET -1.5			STET won by 18 · covered	158.5			1 met · QUC 1 · STET 0
Final	Purdue FW	88	@ Robert Morris	91	PFW Solid 66% ✗	PFW -4.5			PFW lost by 3 · not covered	154.5			6 met · RMU 3 · PFW 3
Final	Buffalo	59	@ Akron	76	AKR Banker 93% ✓	AKR -16.5		BUF +16.5 · covers 53% ✗	AKR won by 17 · covered	142.5			47 met · AKR 24 · BUF 23
Final	Siena	63	@ Canisius	67	CAN Solid 81% ✓	CAN -9.5			CAN won by 4 · not covered	142.5			44 met · CAN 20 · SIE 24
Final	Fairfield	72	@ Niagara	96		FAIR -2.5			FAIR lost by 24 · not covered	146.5			45 met · NIA 23 · FAIR 22
Final	Quinnipiac	66	@ Marist	55		MRST -1.5			MRST lost by 11 · not covered	139.5			23 met · MRST 9 · QUIN 14
Final	Manhattan	58	@ Rider	71	RID Solid 81% ✓	RID -9.5			RID won by 13 · covered	142.5			44 met · RID 28 · MAN 16
Final	Dayton	72	@ Duquesne	62		DUQ -1.5			DUQ lost by 10 · not covered	139.5			38 met · DUQ 10 · DAY 28
Final	Rice	73	@ South Florida	81	USF Solid 69% ✓	USF -5.5			USF won by 8 · covered	146.5			Never met
Final	DePaul	69	@ Villanova	94	VILL Banker 96% ✓	VILL -19			VILL won by 25 · covered	136.0			29 met · VILL 26 · DEP 3
Final	Wright St	71	@ Youngstown St	81		YSU -1			YSU won by 10 · covered	165.5			43 met · YSU 12 · WRST 31
Final	Nebraska	76	@ Iowa	94	IOWA Solid 68% ✓	IOWA -5			IOWA won by 18 · covered	166.5			20 met · IOWA 12 · NEB 8
Final	Boise St	64	@ Nevada	56	NEV Solid 72% ✗	NEV -6.5			NEV lost by 8 · not covered	140.0			44 met · NEV 28 · BOIS 16