Thursday, January 11, 2024 57 games

Today: winner picks 36 of 47 right · line picks 4 of 8 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.

Time / Status	Away		Home		Pick	Line	Prediction	Line pick	Result	O/U	Total pick	Model total	Prev. meetings
Final	New Hampshire	79	@ Maine	74		ME -2.5			ME lost by 5 · not covered	144.5			43 met · ME 22 · UNH 21
Final	NJIT	62	@ UMass Lowell	70	UML Banker 91% ✓	UML -14.5		NJIT +14.5 · covers 53% ✓	UML won by 8 · not covered	147.5			15 met · UML 8 · NJIT 7
Final	New Mexico St	67	@ FIU	77		NMSU -1.5			NMSU lost by 10 · not covered	144.5			3 met · FIU 0 · NMSU 3
Final	Binghamton	69	@ Bryant	77	BRY Solid 75% ✓	BRY -7.5			BRY won by 8 · covered	154.5			4 met · BRY 2 · BING 2
Final	UMBC	72	@ Vermont	77	UVM Banker 94% ✓	UVM -17.5		UMBC +17.5 · covers 53% ✓	UVM won by 5 · not covered	154.5			50 met · UVM 41 · UMBC 9
Final	App State	70	@ Coastal	45	APP Solid 78% ✓	APP -8.5			APP won by 25 · covered	146.5			14 met · CCU 4 · APP 10
Final	Old Dominion	70	@ Georgia St	77	GAST Solid 69% ✓	GAST -5.5			GAST won by 7 · covered	148.5			21 met · GAST 5 · ODU 16
Final	South Alabama	55	@ James Madison	89	JMU Banker 87% ✓	JMU -12.5		USA +12.5 · covers 53% ✗	JMU won by 34 · covered	155.5			2 met · JMU 0 · USA 2
Final	VMI	61	@ Chattanooga	109	UTC Banker 92% ✓	UTC -15.5		VMI +15.5 · covers 53% ✗	UTC won by 48 · covered	152.5			20 met · UTC 15 · VMI 5
Final	Michigan	57	@ Maryland	64	MD Solid 72% ✓	MD -6.5			MD won by 7 · covered	140.5			16 met · MD 6 · MICH 10
Final	Delaware	68	@ Campbell	62	DEL Solid 75% ✓	DEL -7.5			DEL won by 6 · not covered	138.5			Never met
Final	Drexel	67	@ NC A&T	63	DREX Banker 89% ✓	DREX -13.5		NCAT +13.5 · covers 53% ✓	DREX won by 4 · not covered	140.5			1 met · NCAT 1 · DREX 0
Final	Elon	62	@ Charleston	80	COFC Banker 93% ✓	COFC -16.5		ELON +16.5 · covers 53% ✗	COFC won by 18 · covered	159.5			34 met · COFC 25 · ELON 9
Final	Hofstra	68	@ Northeastern	71	HOF Solid 66% ✗	HOF -4.5			HOF lost by 3 · not covered	142.5			39 met · NE 19 · HOF 20
Final	Monmouth	56	@ UNC Wilmington	69	UNCW Solid 78% ✓	UNCW -8.5			UNCW won by 13 · covered	143.5			2 met · UNCW 2 · MONM 0
Final	Stony Brook	64	@ Towson	73	TOW Solid 69% ✓	TOW -5.5			TOW won by 9 · covered	128.5			2 met · TOW 2 · STBK 0
Final	William & Mary	73	@ Hampton	61		W&M -1.5			W&M won by 12 · covered	149.5			19 met · HAMP 7 · W&M 12
Final	24FAU	85	@ Tulane	84	FAU Solid 75% ✓	FAU -7.5			FAU won by 1 · not covered	160.5			1 met · TULN 1 · FAU 0
Final	Seattle U	80	@ UT Rio Grande	81	SEA Solid 72% ✗	SEA -6.5			SEA lost by 1 · not covered	145.5			19 met · RGV 5 · SEA 14
Final	Utah Valley	69	@ UT Arlington	83		UTA -2.5			UTA won by 14 · covered	143.5			4 met · UTA 2 · UVU 2
Final	South Dakota	66	@ Oral Roberts	84	ORU Solid 78% ✓	ORU -8.5			ORU won by 18 · covered	152.5			19 met · ORU 10 · SDAK 9
Final	North Dakota	61	@ Omaha	79		OMA -2.5			OMA won by 18 · covered	143.5			14 met · OMA 11 · UND 3
Final	S Dakota St	81	@ St Thomas	80		STMN -1.5			STMN lost by 1 · not covered	139.5			4 met · STMN 1 · SDST 3
Final	N Dakota St	92	@ Kansas City	91	KC Solid 62% ✗	KC -3.5			KC lost by 1 · not covered	140.5			22 met · KC 8 · NDSU 14
Final	UNC Greensboro	70	@ Samford	79	SAM Solid 66% ✓	SAM -4.5			SAM won by 9 · covered	151.5			32 met · SAM 12 · UNCG 20
Final	E Kentucky	86	@ C Arkansas	63	EKU Solid 69% ✓	EKU -5.5			EKU won by 23 · covered	152.5			4 met · CARK 2 · EKU 2
Final	Texas St	82	@ Arkansas St	85	ARST Solid 69% ✓	ARST -5.5			ARST won by 3 · not covered	144.5			17 met · ARST 4 · TXST 13
Final	Southern Miss	71	@ UL Monroe	58	USM Solid 66% ✓	USM -4.5			USM won by 13 · covered	141.5			4 met · ULM 1 · USM 3
Final	Jackson St	73	@ Alabama St	63		JKST -1.5			JKST won by 10 · covered	146.5			46 met · ALST 21 · JKST 25
Final	Morehead St	78	@ E Illinois	52	MORE Solid 75% ✓	MORE -7.5			MORE won by 26 · covered	133.5			32 met · EIU 14 · MORE 18
Final	Lindenwood	74	@ SE Missouri	68	SEMO Solid 62% ✗	SEMO -3.5			SEMO lost by 6 · not covered	146.5			3 met · SEMO 2 · LIN 1
Final	S Indiana	64	@ SIUE	67	SIUE Solid 75% ✓	SIUE -7.5			SIUE won by 3 · not covered	137.5			3 met · SIUE 2 · USI 1
Final	W Illinois	73	@ UT Martin	64	UTM Solid 72% ✗	UTM -6.5			UTM lost by 9 · not covered	150.5			5 met · UTM 3 · WIU 2
Final	Bellarmine	53	@ North Alabama	69	UNA Solid 69% ✓	UNA -5.5			UNA won by 16 · covered	144.5			6 met · UNA 1 · BELL 5
Final	N Colorado	98	@ Montana	92	MONT Solid 72% ✗	MONT -6.5			MONT lost by 6 · not covered	156.5			37 met · MONT 24 · UNCO 13
Final	N Arizona	50	@ Montana St	79	MTST Solid 66% ✓	MTST -4.5			MTST won by 29 · covered	143.5			43 met · MTST 24 · NAU 19
Final	Weber St	69	@ Sacramento St	71	WEB Solid 78% ✗	WEB -8.5			WEB lost by 2 · not covered	135.5			45 met · SAC 10 · WEB 35
Final	CSU Northridge	75	@ UC Davis	95	UCD Solid 69% ✓	UCD -5.5			UCD won by 20 · covered	152.5			39 met · UCD 24 · CSUN 15
Final	Louisiana Tech	60	@ MTSU	52	LT Solid 72% ✓	LT -6.5			LT won by 8 · covered	129.5			11 met · MTSU 5 · LT 6
Final	Abilene Chrstn	64	@ Grand Canyon	74	GCU Banker 91% ✓	GCU -14.5		ACU +14.5 · covers 53% ✓	GCU won by 10 · not covered	152.5			4 met · GCU 4 · ACU 0
Final	SF Austin	70	@ Utah Tech	75	SFA Solid 72% ✗	SFA -6.5			SFA lost by 5 · not covered	147.5			3 met · UTU 1 · SFA 2
Final	Alcorn St	74	@ Alabama A&M	71		ALCN -1.5			ALCN won by 3 · covered	152.5			41 met · AAMU 19 · ALCN 22
Final	Michigan St	68	@ 10Illinois	71		ILL -2.5			ILL won by 3 · covered	149.5			34 met · ILL 16 · MSU 18
Final	Radford	69	@ Longwood	58	LONG Solid 69% ✗	LONG -5.5			LONG lost by 11 · not covered	134.5			24 met · LONG 6 · RAD 18
Final	UCLA	44	@ Utah	90	UTAH Solid 78% ✓	UTAH -8.5			UTAH won by 46 · covered	137.5			19 met · UTAH 6 · UCLA 13
Final	23Gonzaga	76	@ Santa Clara	77	GONZ Solid 75% ✗	GONZ -7.5			GONZ lost by 1 · not covered	157.5			47 met · SCU 2 · GONZ 45
Final	Idaho St	69	@ Portland St	63	PRST Solid 72% ✗	PRST -6.5			PRST lost by 6 · not covered	139.5			43 met · PRST 28 · IDST 15
Final	Bakersfield	64	@ Santa Barbara	66	UCSB Solid 78% ✓	UCSB -8.5			UCSB won by 2 · not covered	139.5			8 met · UCSB 7 · CSUB 1
Final	Cal Poly	56	@ UC Riverside	71	UCR Solid 83% ✓	UCR -10.5			UCR won by 15 · covered	132.5			46 met · UCR 21 · CP 25
Final	Long Beach St	74	@ UC San Diego	88	UCSD Solid 62% ✓	UCSD -3.5			UCSD won by 14 · covered	155.5			4 met · UCSD 1 · LBSU 3
Final	Tarleton St	63	@ CA Baptist	77	CBU Solid 66% ✓	CBU -4.5			CBU won by 14 · covered	129.5			4 met · CBU 4 · TAR 0
Final	Pacific	78	@ Pepperdine	93	PEPP Banker 87% ✓	PEPP -12.5		PAC +12.5 · covers 53% ✗	PEPP won by 15 · covered	145.5			27 met · PEPP 11 · PAC 16
Final	San Francisco	83	@ San Diego	63	SF Solid 83% ✓	SF -10.5			SF won by 20 · covered	145.5			45 met · USD 19 · SF 26
Final	Portland	52	@ Saint Mary's	95	SMC Banker 95% ✓	SMC -18.5			SMC won by 43 · covered	135.5			42 met · SMC 36 · PORT 6
Final	Stanford	88	@ Oregon St	84	STAN Solid 66% ✓	STAN -4.5			STAN won by 4 · not covered	139.5			40 met · ORST 11 · STAN 29
Final	Arizona St	67	@ Washington	82	WASH Solid 72% ✓	WASH -6.5			WASH won by 15 · covered	151.5			40 met · WASH 27 · ASU 13
Final	UC Irvine	60	@ Hawai'i	50		HAW -1.5			HAW lost by 10 · not covered	136.0			27 met · HAW 8 · UCI 19