Monday, November 11, 2024 42 games

Today: winner picks 31 of 32 right · line picks 4 of 7 right · total picks 2 of 10 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.

Time / Status	Away		Home		Pick	Line	Prediction	Line pick	Result	O/U	Total pick	Model total	Prev. meetings
Final	Dillard	73	@ Howard	91									Never met
Final	Long Island	63	@ Air Force	54	AF Solid 85% ✗	AF -11.5			AF lost by 9 · not covered	142.5			1 met · AF 1 · LIU 0
Final	Stetson	52	@ The Citadel	74		CIT -2.5			CIT won by 22 · covered	145.5			3 met · CIT 3 · STET 0
Final	Youngstown St	47	@ 21Ohio State	81	OSU Banker 95% ✓	OSU -18.5			OSU won by 34 · covered	148.5			3 met · OSU 3 · YSU 0
Final	Valley Forge	61	@ UMBC	120	UMBC Banker 95% ✓								1 met · UMBC 1 · UVF 0
Final	Coppin St	45	@ Virginia	62	UVA Banker 98% ✓	UVA -24.5			UVA won by 17 · not covered	122.5	OVER 122.5 · 52.3% (107) ✗		2 met · UVA 2 · COPP 0
Final	Winthrop	52	@ Virginia Tech	58	VT Solid 78% ✓	VT -8.5			VT won by 6 · not covered	153.5			1 met · VT 1 · WIN 0
Final	Florida A&M	53	@ Maryland	84	MD Banker 98% ✓	MD -32.5			MD won by 31 · not covered	140.5	OVER 140.5 · 52.3% (137) ✗		1 met · MD 1 · FAMU 0
Final	Jacksonville	69	@ Furman	78	FUR Solid 78% ✓	FUR -8.5			FUR won by 9 · covered	141.5			2 met · FUR 1 · JAX 1
Final	UT Martin	69	@ North Alabama	87	UNA Solid 78% ✓	UNA -8.5			UNA won by 18 · covered	150.5			1 met · UNA 0 · UTM 1
Final	W Michigan	65	@ Butler	85	BTLR Banker 94% ✓	BTLR -17.5		WMU +17.5 · covers 53% ✗	BTLR won by 20 · covered	149.5			1 met · BTLR 1 · WMU 0
Final	Grambling	62	@ 20Florida	86	FLA Banker 98% ✓	FLA -25.5			FLA won by 24 · not covered	150.5	OVER 150.5 · 52.3% (148) ✗		1 met · FLA 1 · GRAM 0
Final	E Washington	77	@ Missouri	84	MIZ Banker 95% ✓	MIZ -18.5			MIZ won by 7 · not covered	151.5			Never met
Final	Saint Peter's	65	@ 24Rutgers	75	RUTG Banker 93% ✓	RUTG -16.5		SPU +16.5 · covers 53% ✓	RUTG won by 10 · not covered	133.5			7 met · RUTG 4 · SPU 3
Final	Buffalo	77	@ Notre Dame	86	ND Banker 98% ✓	ND -23.5			ND won by 9 · not covered	147.5	OVER 147.5 · 52.3% (163) ✓		Never met
Final	Gardner-Webb	64	@ Pitt	83	PITT Banker 96% ✓	PITT -19.5			PITT won by 19 · not covered	149.5			2 met · PITT 2 · GWEB 0
Final	Stony Brook	56	@ George Mason	94	GMU Banker 89% ✓	GMU -13.5		STBK +13.5 · covers 53% ✗	GMU won by 38 · covered	143.5			1 met · GMU 1 · STBK 0
Final	Morris	50	@ Charleston So	108	CHSO Banker 95% ✓								1 met · CHSO 1 · MRRS 0
Final	McNeese	64	@ 2Alabama	72	ALA Banker 94% ✓	ALA -17.5		MCN +17.5 · covers 53% ✓	ALA won by 8 · not covered	168.5			Never met
Final	Taylor	43	@ Bowling Green	107									Never met
Final	VTSU Johnson	68	@ C Connecticut	117									Never met
Final	S Indiana	63	@ Marshall	77	MRSH Solid 81% ✓	MRSH -9.5			MRSH won by 14 · covered	154.5			Never met
Final	Augusta	69	@ GA Southern	79	GASO Banker 95% ✓								2 met · GASO 2 · AUG 0
Final	Voorhees	48	@ SC State	94	SCST Banker 95% ✓								6 met · SCST 6 · VRHS 0
Final	Alcorn St	51	@ Tulane	84	TULN Banker 97% ✓	TULN -21.5			TULN won by 33 · covered	154.5	OVER 154.5 · 52.3% (135) ✗		4 met · TULN 4 · ALCN 0
Final	UNC Greensboro	68	@ SMU	81	SMU Banker 89% ✓	SMU -13.5		UNCG +13.5 · covers 53% ✓	SMU won by 13 · not covered	147.5			Never met
Final	Kansas City	56	@ 7Iowa State	82	ISU Banker 98% ✓	ISU -28.5			ISU won by 26 · not covered	142.5	OVER 142.5 · 52.3% (138) ✗		4 met · ISU 4 · KC 0
Final	Yale	84	@ 13Purdue	92	PUR Banker 91% ✓	PUR -14.5		YALE +14.5 · covers 53% ✓	PUR won by 8 · not covered	144.5			1 met · PUR 1 · YALE 0
Final	Lamar	71	@ 23Texas A&M	97	TA&M Banker 98% ✓	TA&M -25.5			TA&M won by 26 · covered	145.5	OVER 145.5 · 52.3% (168) ✓		1 met · TA&M 1 · LAM 0
Final	Chattanooga	61	@ Austin Peay	67		UTC -2.5			UTC lost by 6 · not covered	146.5			4 met · APSU 2 · UTC 2
Final	Missouri So St	61	@ Missouri St	90									Never met
Final	N'Western St	57	@ Oklahoma	73	OU Banker 98% ✓	OU -25.5			OU won by 16 · not covered	147.5	OVER 147.5 · 52.3% (130) ✗		6 met · OU 6 · NWST 0
Final	Ark Baptist	57	@ Alabama A&M	103									Never met
Final	Mercer	64	@ DePaul	95	DEP Solid 78% ✓	DEP -8.5			DEP won by 31 · covered	157.5			Never met
Final	C Michigan	62	@ 15Marquette	70	MARQ Banker 98% ✓	MARQ -26.5			MARQ won by 8 · not covered	150.5	OVER 150.5 · 52.3% (132) ✗		2 met · MARQ 2 · CMU 0
Final	NW Indian	35	@ Montana St	93	MTST Banker 95% ✓								3 met · MTST 3 · NWIC 0
Final	S Oregon	63	@ Idaho St	87									Never met
Final	Idaho	67	@ Washington St	90	WSU Banker 92% ✓	WSU -15.5		IDHO +15.5 · covers 53% ✗	WSU won by 23 · covered	156.5			21 met · WSU 17 · IDHO 4
Final	N Dakota St	81	@ Bakersfield	86		CSUB -2.5			CSUB won by 5 · covered	139.5			Never met
Final	Life Pacific	56	vs San José St	93	SJSU Banker 95% ✓								3 met · SJSU 3 · LPU 0
Final	Boston U	40	@ UCLA	71	UCLA Banker 98% ✓	UCLA -25.5			UCLA won by 31 · covered	134.5	OVER 134.5 · 52.3% (111) ✗		Never met
Final	Pacific	66	@ Hawai'i	76		HAW -2.5			HAW won by 10 · covered	142.5			7 met · HAW 5 · PAC 2