Sunday, March 31, 2024 2 games
Today: winner picks 1 of 2 right · total picks 2 of 2 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.
| Time / Status | Away | Home | Pick | Line | Prediction | Line pick | Result | O/U | Total pick | Model total | Prev. meetings | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final |  2Tennessee
|
66 | vs  1Purdue
|
72 | PUR Solid 62% ✓ | PUR -3.5 | PUR won by 6 · covered | 147.5 | UNDER 147.5 · 51.8% (138) ✓ | 4 met · PUR 3 · TENN 1 | |||
| Final |  11NC State
|
76 | vs  4Duke
|
64 | DUKE Solid 75% ✗ | DUKE -7.5 | DUKE lost by 12 · not covered | 141.5 | UNDER 141.5 · 51.8% (140) ✓ | 37 met · DUKE 26 · NCSU 11 |