Friday, February 9, 2024 3 games
Today: winner picks 1 of 1 right · line picks 0 of 1 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.
| Time / Status | Away | Home | Pick | Line | Prediction | Line pick | Result | O/U | Total pick | Model total | Prev. meetings | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final |  18Dayton
|
47 | @  VCU
|
49 | DAY -1.5 | DAY lost by 2 · not covered | 134.5 | 22 met · VCU 14 · DAY 8 | |||||
| Final |  24San Diego St
|
66 | @  Nevada
|
70 | NEV -2.5 | NEV won by 4 · covered | 141.5 | 25 met · NEV 4 · SDSU 21 | |||||
| Final |  San José St
|
47 | @  Colorado St
|
66 | CSU Banker 93% ✓ | CSU -16.5 | SJSU +16.5 · covers 53% ✗ | CSU won by 19 · covered | 146.5 | 19 met · CSU 17 · SJSU 2 |