Friday, January 26, 2024 9 games
Today: winner picks 4 of 5 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.
| Time / Status | Away | Home | Pick | Line | Prediction | Line pick | Result | O/U | Total pick | Model total | Prev. meetings | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final |  Arkansas St
|
75 | @  Louisiana
|
81 | UL Solid 66% ✓ | UL -4.5 | UL won by 6 · covered | 156.5 | 41 met · UL 26 · ARST 15 | ||||
| Final |  Ohio
|
71 | @  Kent State
|
64 | KENT Solid 62% ✗ | KENT -3.5 | KENT lost by 7 · not covered | 146.5 | 48 met · KENT 30 · OHIO 18 | ||||
| Final |  Manhattan
|
70 | @  Canisius
|
82 | CAN Solid 75% ✓ | CAN -7.5 | CAN won by 12 · covered | 143.5 | 39 met · CAN 14 · MAN 25 | ||||
| Final |  Iona
|
70 | @  Siena
|
51 | IONA Solid 85% ✓ | IONA -11.5 | IONA won by 19 · covered | 132.5 | 47 met · SIE 23 · IONA 24 | ||||
| Final |  Marist
|
62 | @  Niagara
|
67 | NIA -2.5 | NIA won by 5 · covered | 131.5 | 47 met · NIA 26 · MRST 21 | |||||
| Final |  Michigan St
|
66 | @  13Wisconsin
|
81 | WIS -2.5 | WIS won by 15 · covered | 135.5 | 43 met · WIS 20 · MSU 23 | |||||
| Final |  Saint Joseph's
|
72 | @  St Bonaventure
|
91 | SBU -2.5 | SBU won by 19 · covered | 144.5 | 36 met · SBU 20 · JOES 16 | |||||
| Final |  Utah Valley
|
61 | @  Seattle U
|
62 | SEA Solid 78% ✓ | SEA -8.5 | SEA won by 1 · not covered | 139.5 | 27 met · SEA 13 · UVU 14 | ||||
| Final |  Stanford
|
71 | @  California
|
73 | CAL -2.5 | CAL won by 2 · not covered | 154.5 | 46 met · CAL 19 · STAN 27 |