Friday, January 19, 2024 16 games

Today: winner picks 11 of 14 right · line picks 1 of 1 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.

Time / Status	Away		Home		Pick	Line	Prediction	Line pick	Result	O/U	Total pick	Model total	Prev. meetings
Final	FDU	76	@ Stonehill	69	FDU Solid 66% ✓	FDU -4.5			FDU won by 7 · covered	153.5			3 met · STO 1 · FDU 2
Final	Georgetown	91	@ Xavier	92	XAV Solid 85% ✓	XAV -11.5			XAV won by 1 · not covered	146.5			19 met · XAV 15 · GTWN 4
Final	Akron	77	@ Kent State	71		KENT -1.5			KENT lost by 6 · not covered	144.5			51 met · KENT 25 · AKR 26
Final	Toledo	62	@ C Michigan	65	TOL Solid 75% ✗	TOL -7.5			TOL lost by 3 · not covered	148.5			46 met · CMU 16 · TOL 30
Final	Long Island	66	@ Saint Francis	72	SFPA Solid 66% ✓	SFPA -4.5			SFPA won by 6 · covered	146.0			40 met · SFPA 15 · LIU 25
Final	Wagner	71	@ Merrimack	65	MRMK Solid 72% ✗	MRMK -6.5			MRMK lost by 6 · not covered	123.5			7 met · MRMK 3 · WAG 4
Final	Le Moyne	75	@ C Connecticut	73	CCSU Solid 75% ✗	CCSU -7.5			CCSU lost by 2 · not covered	143.5			Never met
Final	Canisius	58	@ Iona	70	IONA Solid 78% ✓	IONA -8.5			IONA won by 12 · covered	145.5			46 met · IONA 33 · CAN 13
Final	Saint Peter's	67	@ Fairfield	76	FAIR Solid 62% ✓	FAIR -3.5			FAIR won by 9 · covered	133.5			50 met · FAIR 30 · SPU 20
Final	Marist	48	@ Mount St Marys	65	MSM Solid 62% ✓	MSM -3.5			MSM won by 17 · covered	132.5			2 met · MSM 1 · MRST 1
Final	Niagara	78	@ Rider	74		RID -2.5			RID lost by 4 · not covered	145.5			44 met · RID 26 · NIA 18
Final	Quinnipiac	82	@ Siena	70	QUIN Solid 69% ✓	QUIN -5.5			QUIN won by 12 · covered	148.5			19 met · SIE 11 · QUIN 8
Final	Saint Louis	61	@ VCU	85	VCU Solid 78% ✓	VCU -8.5			VCU won by 24 · covered	147.5			19 met · VCU 14 · SLU 5
Final	East West	55	@ Chicago St	131	CHST Banker 95% ✓								5 met · CHST 5 · EAWE 0
Final	Indiana	79	@ 11Wisconsin	91	WIS Banker 87% ✓	WIS -12.5		IU +12.5 · covers 53% ✓	WIS won by 12 · not covered	140.5			36 met · WIS 29 · IU 7
Final	UNLV	75	@ Colorado St	78	CSU Solid 75% ✓	CSU -7.5			CSU won by 3 · not covered	143.5			44 met · CSU 15 · UNLV 29