Saturday, April 6, 2024 2 games
Today: winner picks 2 of 2 right · total picks 2 of 2 right. Pick: who we think wins (Banker very likely, Solid likely). Line: the bookmaker's handicap. FLA -9.5 means Florida must win by 10 or more to cover. Prediction: our expected winning margin. Line pick: shown only where history shows an edge. Underdogs getting 12 to 17.5 points covered 53% of the time over the last 7 seasons; other lines are close to a coin flip, so no pick. Result: what happened against the line. Total pick: UNDER at neutral-site games (went under 51.8% over 7 seasons), OVER when the spread is 20+ (went over 52.3%). These are small edges, below the ~52.4% normally needed to profit. Model total: our computer's projected combined points (from each team's speed and points per possession) and its over/under call against the O/U line. Tested on 37,000 past games it was right about 50.4% of the time. Not betting advice.
| Time / Status | Away | Home | Pick | Line | Prediction | Line pick | Result | O/U | Total pick | Model total | Prev. meetings | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final |  11NC State
|
50 | vs  1Purdue
|
63 | PUR Solid 81% ✓ | PUR -9.5 | PUR won by 13 · covered | 146.5 | UNDER 146.5 · 51.8% (113) ✓ | 3 met · PUR 2 · NCSU 1 | |||
| Final |  4Alabama
|
72 | vs  1UConn
|
86 | CONN Solid 83% ✓ | CONN -10.5 | CONN won by 14 · covered | 160.5 | UNDER 160.5 · 51.8% (158) ✓ | 2 met · CONN 2 · ALA 0 |